By strategic foresight methodology, we mean this part of the general strategic foresight and warning methodology that focuses on foresight analysis. In other words, it is the general method without the warning part. It thus consist in:
- Step 1: Exploratory stage
- Step 3 – Building scenarios
- Determining criteria: a revisited influence analysis;
- Variables, values and consistency in dynamic networks;
- Constructing a foresight scenario’s narrative with Ego Networks: This methodology was experimented with the Chronicles of Everstate – It can be used as a guide and fall back in case the analyst faces a hurdle in developing its narrative. However, practically, building a whole narrative with ego network is likely to be too painstaking for an analyst to be systematically used. Should Artificial Intelligence be applied to SF&W, then, possibly, it could, benefit from the ego-network approach.
Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France).
An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan.
She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership.
She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics.
Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.
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