(Modified on December 19, 2010, 17:40 EST)
The initial variables chosen to start building our scenario are the five most important variables according to Eigenvector centrality, as explained in Revisiting influence analysis.
We shall now choose values for each criterion.
As we aim at finding a plausible and average, mild set of initial criteria, we shall start from the following set, which is also intuitively representative of the situation, real or perceived, in which many real world countries have found themselves for a couple of years.
We then verify that the chosen scenarios are consistent with the consistency matrix.
Even if the aim is to obtain timelines that are as precise as possible, as explained in Creating the model, considering the need for further funding – and, ideally, institutional backing – to be able to do so, achievement of this objective is still remote. Thus, to underline this fact, I have chosen to set the scenarios in a time mirroring our own, Evertime – the initial post read “in a very distant future (starting c.5230)” and has been modified by the post “Creating Evertime” - where years are creating a temporal outline. This choice emphasises dynamics to the detriment of specific dates. However unsatisfactory when we want to depict our very real near future and be easily actionable, this approach allows isolating the time component and each reader or user will be free to adapt the temporal outline according to its convictions or methodology, waiting for something more scientific to exist.
We now have all the necessary material, as well as all the methodological background explanations to begin telling the story of Everstate, starting with setting the stage.