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	<title>Red (team) Analysis</title>
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	<link>http://www.redanalysis.org</link>
	<description>Strategic Foresight &#38; Warning, Anticipatory Intelligence, Political Risk Assessment</description>
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		<title>Strategic Intelligence for Syria – Scenario 3.4. Back to an Al-Assad Syria?</title>
		<link>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/17/strategic-intelligence-for-syria-scenario-3-4-back-to-an-al-assad-syria/</link>
		<comments>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/17/strategic-intelligence-for-syria-scenario-3-4-back-to-an-al-assad-syria/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Jun 2013 09:41:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helene Lavoix</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Syria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Al-Assad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alawite]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[belligerent]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[civil war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cleansing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[communities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[conflict]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[displacement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dynamics of war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[emergency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fear]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fog of war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IDP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[integration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nationalism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[population]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[refugees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scenario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[social fabric]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sunni]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war victory]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=4628</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Despite the recent victory in Qusayr by the pro Al-Assad groups, and despite the strategic character of the city, this scenario  seems to be unlikely, but not impossible, in a very near future. To obtain complete victory, we may assume &#8230; <a href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/17/strategic-intelligence-for-syria-scenario-3-4-back-to-an-al-assad-syria/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No104, 13 June 2013</title>
		<link>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/13/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no104-13-june-2013/</link>
		<comments>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/13/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no104-13-june-2013/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Jun 2013 05:10:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helene Lavoix</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Weekly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Al Qaeda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colombia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cyber-security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DoD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ECB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eurozone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Far-right]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Floods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greece]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ireland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ISIS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Istanbul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kazakhstan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mercenaries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mongolia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Muslim]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NSA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NYC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sri Lanka]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Syria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The India Sigils]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.K.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S.]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=4618</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the midst of turmoil &#8211; Once you get beyond the tsunami of articles regarding the NSA, we continue seeing the same pattern of deep and painful changes emerging as observed over the last months. Eurozone countries are not only &#8230; <a href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/13/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no104-13-june-2013/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Strategic Intelligence for Syria – Scenario 3.3.2. A Truly Secular Syria?</title>
		<link>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/10/sia-for-syria-9-scenario-3-a-secular-syria/</link>
		<comments>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/10/sia-for-syria-9-scenario-3-a-secular-syria/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Jun 2013 08:53:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helene Lavoix</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Syria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[belligerent]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[civil war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[communities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[conflict]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[democracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dynamics of war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fog of war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[integration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Movement for Building Civilization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Muslim Brotherhood]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nationalism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[salafi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scenario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sharia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sufi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sufism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sunni]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war victory]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=4599</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post will outline the last but one scenario for Syria for the short to medium term, i.e. "a Secular Syria" resulting from a real victory by one of the warring groups. Considering the current state of play, this scenario is unlikely, even utopic. Yet, imagining it will also suggest possible policy and strategy that could change the odds.
The various scenarios constructed over the last weeks are summarized in a graph, which starts exploring ways to look at sets of scenarios as a systemic and dynamic whole. <a href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/10/sia-for-syria-9-scenario-3-a-secular-syria/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No103, 6 June 2013</title>
		<link>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/06/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no103-6-june-2013/</link>
		<comments>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/06/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no103-6-june-2013/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Jun 2013 03:09:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helene Lavoix</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Weekly]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=4593</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Horizon Scanning for National Security: From China to Syria through Turkey, from Central Asia to Latin America through Europe, from tiny drones to robot writers to a crowd-owned space telescope, from the IMF to the Arab League to Europe again, there is much to keep "The Global Warrior Elite" (see Quartz article) on edge... <a href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/06/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no103-6-june-2013/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Strategic Intelligence for Syria (8) – Scenario 3. A Nationalist Islamic Syria or a Muslim Brotherhood&#8217;s Syria?</title>
		<link>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/03/sia-for-syria-8-scenario-3-a-nationalist-islamic-syria-or-a-muslim-brotherhoods-syria/</link>
		<comments>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/03/sia-for-syria-8-scenario-3-a-nationalist-islamic-syria-or-a-muslim-brotherhoods-syria/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Jun 2013 08:37:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helene Lavoix</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Syria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[belligerent]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[caliphate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[civil war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[conflict]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[conquest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dynamics of war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fog of war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Muslim Brotherhood]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nationalism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[salafi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scenario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sharia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SIF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SILF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SLF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sunni]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war victory]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=4579</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post continues exploring various scenarios around the theme of "a real victory in Syria" by one or the other groups fighting on the ground, starting first with a Nationalist Islamic Syria, and then moving to a Syria under the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood. For each scenario, current estimates of likelihood will be outlined and some indicators influencing probability will be suggested. <a href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/06/03/sia-for-syria-8-scenario-3-a-nationalist-islamic-syria-or-a-muslim-brotherhoods-syria/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No102, 30 May 2013</title>
		<link>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/30/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no102-30-may-2013/</link>
		<comments>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/30/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no102-30-may-2013/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 30 May 2013 10:30:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helene Lavoix</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Weekly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greece]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kosovo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MENA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[robots]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Syria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The India Sigils]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=4565</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Horizon Scanning for National Security No 102 - Cognitive shift? Interestingly, compared with only a few months ago, the signals are increasingly linked to geo-strategy, war, geopolitics. The other issues remain crucial and did not disappear, but we can start seeing the overall global system changing, in terms of preeminence given to types of challenges too. <a href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/30/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no102-30-may-2013/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Strategic Intelligence Assessment for Syria (7) – Scenario 3.1: A Real Victory &#8211; an Islamic Al-Sham?</title>
		<link>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/27/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-7-scenario-3-1-a-real-victory-in-syria-an-islamic-al-sham/</link>
		<comments>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/27/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-7-scenario-3-1-a-real-victory-in-syria-an-islamic-al-sham/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 May 2013 16:52:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helene Lavoix</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Syria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Al-Sham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[belligerent]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[caliphate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[civil war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[conflict]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[conquest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dynamics of war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fog of war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iraq]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ISI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ISIS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Islamist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[JAN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jihad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jihadi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[salafi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scenario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sharia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sunni]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war victory]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=4543</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Considering the current state of play, scenario 3: A Real Victory in Syria, and its sub-scenarios are rather unlikely in the short-term. However, they are worth outlining because they bring analytical insight into dynamics and potential strategies to favour or counter one &#8230; <a href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/27/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-7-scenario-3-1-a-real-victory-in-syria-an-islamic-al-sham/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No101, 23 May 2013</title>
		<link>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/23/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no101-23-may-2013/</link>
		<comments>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/23/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no101-23-may-2013/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 11:13:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helene Lavoix</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Weekly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eurozone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[extremism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geo-strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MENA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[peace process]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shadow banking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Syria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The India Sigils]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tornadoes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.K. Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[water security]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=4538</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Horizon Scanning for National Security No101 - Uncertainties: Which alliances and partnerships will hold, which one will fail, which ones will emerge, and for how long? Will the Syrian peace conference occur and will it be successful, at which cost and with which geo-strategic impact? Is the European crisis over or not at all? Will Europeans continue to withstand the pressure, and for how long, and what will be next? Will the mammoth monetary experiment endeavoured by Japan be lethal or was it the right daring move? And what if the global financial and economic crisis was not at all over? Is climate change enhancing the likelihood of mega-tornadoes or not? How will the world face the various environmental pressures and the unintended consequences of the remedies pushed forward? Those rising and spreading uncertainties could show that we are now fully moving on a path fraught with multiple systemic shifts., with more dangers and threats, but also with more space for human liberty, if we are wise enough to take the measure of the challenges ahead.  <a href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/23/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no101-23-may-2013/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Strategic Intelligence Assessment for Syria (6) – Scenario 2: No Syrian in Geneva</title>
		<link>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/20/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-5-scenario-2-no-syrians-in-geneva/</link>
		<comments>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/20/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-5-scenario-2-no-syrians-in-geneva/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 May 2013 15:32:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helene Lavoix</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Syria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[civil war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[conflict]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dynamics of war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European jihadist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fog of war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hezbollah]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jihadi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jordan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lebanon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[refugees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[regionalisation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[salafi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scenario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[spill over]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=4511</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Scenario 2: No Syrian in Geneva The diplomatic talks fail and the international conference in Geneva does not take place or is a face-saving sham (see &#8220;Scenario 1: Peace in Geneva?&#8221; and its sub scenarios for what could result from &#8230; <a href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/20/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-5-scenario-2-no-syrians-in-geneva/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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		<title>The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No100, 16 May 2013</title>
		<link>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/16/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no100-16-may-2013/</link>
		<comments>http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/16/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no100-16-may-2013/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2013 10:49:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helene Lavoix</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Weekly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[3D printing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[anticipatory intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arctic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crime Terror Nexus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eurozone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finland]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=4497</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Horizon Scanning for National Security No100 - Redrawing the global strategic and geopolitical map: From the Syrian civil war and its impact on the region and beyond, with its many uncertainties, moving alliances and dilemmas, to the China-Japan unrelenting tension over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, through the rush for the Arctic, without forgetting the European quagmire and its multi-faceted apparently slow-moving polarization, this is actually the global political and strategic map that is being redrawn. How it will look like is still shrouded in the fog of war ... or rather of wars, crises, and battles, present and, unfortunately, to come. <a href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/05/16/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no100-16-may-2013/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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