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	<title>2012 Archives - The Red Team Analysis Society</title>
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	<link>https://redanalysis.org/tag/2012/</link>
	<description>Strategic Foresight &#38; Early Warning ･ Geopolitics ･ Scenarios</description>
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	<title>2012 Archives - The Red Team Analysis Society</title>
	<link>https://redanalysis.org/tag/2012/</link>
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<site xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">128105080</site>	<item>
		<title>Assessing End of Year Predictions: How Did they Fare? (2)</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/2013/02/11/end-of-year-predictions-2012-result/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Feb 2013 18:27:50 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Evaluation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BRICS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[content]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[evaluation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[impact]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[judgement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lessons learned]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[likelihood]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[methodology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[political dynamics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[time]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[timeline]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[timing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[water security]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=4091</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The evaluation of our 2012 predictions&#8217; sample underlines notably a widespread conventional view of national security, novel issues being ignored; a relative inability to assess timing whilst our understanding of issues fares relatively well; the existence of major biases, notably regarding China, Russia, and the U.S; the difficulty of prediction for novel issues and old issues in new context.</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">4091</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>An Experiment in Assessing End of Year Predictions (1)</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/2013/02/04/an-experiment-in-assessing-end-of-year-predictions-1/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Feb 2013 16:40:56 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Evaluation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[content]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[evaluation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[impact]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[judgement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lessons learned]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[likelihood]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[methodology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[political dynamics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[time]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[timeline]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[timing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[uncertainty]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=3931</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>This post will present the experiment &#8211; assessing a sample of open source predictions for the year 2012 &#8211; address the methodological problems encountered while creating the evaluation itself, and underline the lessons learned. The second part (forthcoming) will discuss results.</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">3931</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>2012 Predictions Database</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/2012/12/24/2012-predictions-database/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Dec 2012 07:10:44 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Evaluation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prediction]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=3589</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>A database of open source 2012 predictions, and graph on selected issues.</p>
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				<p>The remaining part of this article is for our <a style="color: #fff" href="https://redanalysis.org/product/membership-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">members</a>. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. <a style="color: #fff" href="https://redanalysis.org/my-account/?wcm_redirect_to=post&#38;wcm_redirect_id=3589">Log in</a> and access this article.</p>		    </div>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">3589</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Trial by Fire for Foresight: The 2012 Predictions of The Economist</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/2012/12/03/trial-by-fire-for-foresight-the-2012-predictions-of-the-economist/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Dec 2012 19:30:32 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Evaluation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[client]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[discrete event]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Egypt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lessons learned]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LIBOR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[political dynamics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sandy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic surprise]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Syria issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[time]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[timeline]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tunisia]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=3464</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The Economist shows the lead in a courageous yet hardly ever done exercise: going back to our own foresight and assess, in the light of the present, what was right and what was wrong. It provides us with an example of how such lessons learned could be endeavoured, underlines questions that should be asked and key challenges for anticipation, and exemplifies how biases can derail foresight.</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">3464</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>2212 EVT: Material Stakes in an Outdated Worldview (The Chronicles of Everstate)</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/2012/02/26/2012-evt-material-stakes-in-an-outdated-worldview-the-chronicles-of-everstate/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/2012/02/26/2012-evt-material-stakes-in-an-outdated-worldview-the-chronicles-of-everstate/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Feb 2012 09:15:06 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Everstate's future: 2012 EVT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Order and New Paradigm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[appropriation of public goods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central power]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elite group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future of nation-state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ideological stake]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ideology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[instability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[knowledge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[material stake]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Material Stakes in an Outdated Worldview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[modern nation-state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[normative order]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[normative transition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[norms]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[outsourcing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[paradigm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[socio-political model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Chronicles of Everstate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[university]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[worldview]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=1223</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Last episodes’ summary:&#160;In 2212 EVT,&#160;Everstate&#160;(the ideal-type&#160;corresponding to our very real countries&#160;created to&#160;foresee&#160;the&#160;future of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population as authorities cannot anymore deliver security. The last&#160;phenomenon driving Everstatan governing bodies’ rising inefficiency in ensuring their mission is an outdated worldview that leads to misunderstanding and disconnect, which is first upheld &#8230; <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/2012/02/26/2012-evt-material-stakes-in-an-outdated-worldview-the-chronicles-of-everstate/" class="more-link">Continue reading<span class="screen-reader-text"> "2212 EVT: Material Stakes in an Outdated Worldview (The Chronicles of Everstate)"</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">1223</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>2212 EVT: Ideological Stakes in an Outdated Worldview (The Chronicles of Everstate)</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/2012/02/19/the-chronicles-of-everstate-2011-evt-2012-evt-an-outdated-worldview/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/2012/02/19/the-chronicles-of-everstate-2011-evt-2012-evt-an-outdated-worldview/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Feb 2012 09:12:22 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Everstate's future: 2012 EVT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Order and New Paradigm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[appropriation of public goods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central power]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elite group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future of nation-state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[governance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ideological stake]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ideological Stakes in an Outdated Worldview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ideology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[instability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[knowledge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[modern nation-state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[normative order]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[normative transition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[norms]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[outsourcing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[paradigm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[socio-political model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Chronicles of Everstate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[university]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[worldview]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=932</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Last episodes’ summary:&#160;In 2212 EVT,&#160;Everstate&#160;(the ideal-type&#160;corresponding to our very real countries&#160;created to&#160;foresee&#160;the&#160;future of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. The increasing incapacity of the political authorities to deliver the security citizens seek increases the risks to the legitimacy of the whole system.&#160;The first two phenomena&#160;driving Everstatan political authorities’ incapacity to deliver &#8230; <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/2012/02/19/the-chronicles-of-everstate-2011-evt-2012-evt-an-outdated-worldview/" class="more-link">Continue reading<span class="screen-reader-text"> "2212 EVT: Ideological Stakes in an Outdated Worldview (The Chronicles of Everstate)"</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">932</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>2212 EVT: the Power of Novstate (The Chronicles of Everstate)</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/2012/02/12/the-chronicles-of-everstate-2011-evt-2012-evt-the-rise-of-novstate/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/2012/02/12/the-chronicles-of-everstate-2011-evt-2012-evt-the-rise-of-novstate/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Feb 2012 09:01:35 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Everstate's future: 2012 EVT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[appropriation of public goods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central power]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cooperation with elite]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elite group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elite stronghold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future of nation-state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[government expenditures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[instability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[modern nation-state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[need for new staff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[need in manpower]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[outsourcing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[separation private public]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Chronicles of Everstate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[upward social mobility]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=920</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, the deepening chronic budget deficit and the rising need for liquidity of Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state) give an increasing power to the lenders elite group, allowing for new forms of appropriation of public power. Everstate sinks into a vicious circle. On the difficulty of &#8230; <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/2012/02/12/the-chronicles-of-everstate-2011-evt-2012-evt-the-rise-of-novstate/" class="more-link">Continue reading<span class="screen-reader-text"> "2212 EVT: the Power of Novstate (The Chronicles of Everstate)"</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">920</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>2212 EVT: Public Resources and Lenders (The Chronicles of Everstate)</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/2012/02/05/the-chronicles-of-everstate-2011-evt-2012-evt-public-resources-and-the-lenders-elite-groups/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/2012/02/05/the-chronicles-of-everstate-2011-evt-2012-evt-public-resources-and-the-lenders-elite-groups/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2012 09:00:59 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Everstate's future: 2012 EVT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[appropriation of public goods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central power]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial institutions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future of nation-state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[homogeneity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[instability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lenders' nexus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lenders' power]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[modern nation-state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[need for liquidity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[neo-liberalism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[public debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[public deficit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[public power]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Resources and Lenders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Chronicles of Everstate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weakening central power]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=840</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state) sees a mounting discontent of its population because it has become insecure considering the impact of the new still misunderstood conditions. Three related phenomena drive Everstatan political authorities&#8217; incapacity to deliver security. First, Everstate faces a changing set of resources implying &#8230; <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/2012/02/05/the-chronicles-of-everstate-2011-evt-2012-evt-public-resources-and-the-lenders-elite-groups/" class="more-link">Continue reading<span class="screen-reader-text"> "2212 EVT: Public Resources and Lenders (The Chronicles of Everstate)"</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">840</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Budget Deficit and Liquidity (The Chronicles of Everstate)</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/2012/01/29/everstates-deepening-budget-deficit-and-increasing-need-for-liquidity-c-5230-c-5235/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/2012/01/29/everstates-deepening-budget-deficit-and-increasing-need-for-liquidity-c-5230-c-5235/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Jan 2012 09:00:16 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Everstate's future: 2012 EVT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[budget deficit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future of nation-state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[government expenditures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[instability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[modern nation-state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[need for liquidity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[public debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[public deficit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Chronicles of Everstate]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=822</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<!-- wp:paragraph -->
<p><em>That year, in&#160;<a title="Creating Everstate" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2011/11/13/creating-everstate/" target="_blank">Everstate</a>&#160;(the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to&#160;<a title="Foresight method" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2011/09/28/foresight-method/" target="_blank">foresee</a>&#160;the&#160;<a title="The Chronicles of Everstate: foreseeing the future of the modern nation-state" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2011/10/30/launching-the-chronicles-of-everstate/" target="_blank">future of the modern nation-state</a>), people seek security&#160;</em><em style="color: #333333; line-height: 24px;">as they increasingly feel the negative impact of various pressures and threats on their life. Henceforth they&#160;</em><em>turn to their political authorities and even start trying to compel them to provide this security. Through those actions, Everstatans start to remember that, as part of the nation, they are also rulers of Everstate. Yet, the situation is growing worse because the tasks of governance have grown more complex while the governing system and the polity are not yet adapted to the new conditions.</em></p>
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<p>The first phenomenon driving &#160;Everstatan political authorities' incapacity to deliver security&#160;is a deepening budget deficit and an increasing need for liquidity<em>[...]</em></p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">822</post-id>	</item>
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		<title>2212 EVT: Seeking Security (The Chronicles of Everstate)</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/2012/01/22/the-chronicles-of-everstate-c-5230-c-5235-seeking-security/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/2012/01/22/the-chronicles-of-everstate-c-5230-c-5235-seeking-security/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Jan 2012 08:41:52 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Everstate's future: 2012 EVT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[citizens]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[domestic escalation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future of nation-state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[governance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[increasing tasks of governing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[instability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[legitimacy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mission of political authorities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[modern nation-state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nationalism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Opposition Nexus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Occupy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[power]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rising scope of revendicatons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ruler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seeking Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Chronicles of Everstate]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=788</guid>

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<p class="has-text-color has-light-gray-color"><em>Summary of our scenario so far: In 2012 EVT, in <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2011/11/13/creating-everstate/" target="_blank">Everstate</a>, the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2011/09/28/foresight-method/" target="_blank">foresee</a> the <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="http://www.redanalysis.org/2011/10/30/launching-the-chronicles-of-everstate/" target="_blank">future of the modern nation-state</a>, the population's discontent increases. It is bound to continue to do so, as a result of various pressures and threats, most of them inevitable, imperfectly identified, and not understood. Indeed, Everstatans feel both directly and indirectly the impact of those pressures, which affect their sense of security and thus generate discontent (link to <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://redanalysis.org/2012/01/15/starting-the-chronicles-of-everstate/" target="_blank">previous article</a>).</em></p>
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<p>As a result, now, Everstatans continue to seek a security that is appearing as increasingly distant and elusive.... read more</p>
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