The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No101, 23 May 2013

Posted on May 23, 2013 by Helene Lavoix

Uncertainties: Which alliances and partnership will hold, which one will fail, which ones will emerge, for how long? Will the Syrian peace conference occur and will it be successful, at which cost and with which geo-strategic impact? Is the European crisis over or not at all? Will Europeans continue to withstand the pressure, and for how long, and what will be next? Will the mammoth monetary experiment endeavoured by Japan be lethal or was it the right daring move? And what if the global financial and economic crisis was not at all over? Is climate change enhancing the likelihood of mega-tornadoes or not? How will the world face the various environmental pressures and the unintended consequences of the remedies pushed forward? Those rising and spreading uncertainties could show that we are now fully moving on a path fraught with multiple systemic shifts., with more dangers and threats, but also with more space for human liberty, if we are wise enough to take the measure of the challenges ahead.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No100, 16 May 2013

Posted on May 16, 2013 by Helene Lavoix

Redrawing the global strategic and geopolitical map: From the Syrian civil war and its impact on the region and beyond, with its many uncertainties, moving alliances and dilemmas, to the China-Japan unrelenting tension over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, through the rush for the Arctic, without forgetting the European quagmire and its multi-faceted apparently slow-moving polarization, this is actually the global political and strategic map that is being redrawn. How it will look like is still shrouded in the fog of war … or rather of wars, crises, and battles, present and, unfortunately, to come.

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No98, 2 May 2013

Posted on May 2, 2013 by Helene Lavoix

Imagination, boldness, vision and fortitude wanted – How do you face a changing world fraught with more threats and impossible choices when you have less resources, or when resources are concentrated where national security responsibilities are not?

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No97, 25 April 2013

Posted on April 25, 2013 by Helene Lavoix

Our own worst enemies – One major lesson that can be learned for the Boston tragedy is that efforts at improving systems and alertness can never stop in times of heightened tension and threats multiplication, at least not as long as problems have not been properly analyzed, causes courageously tackled, and real solutions imagined and implemented. Winning battles do not always mean winning a war, and deep-seated systemic problems will not go away out of wishful thinking, old remedies and temporary efforts, even if the last 60 years of relative peace, easy growth and consumerist society have tried to make us believe otherwise. Hence the various issues that are plaguing our contemporary did not go away those last weeks (and years), but, on the contrary, continue to escalate, while imaginative solutions so far only concern extreme environments, notably space. Should we not also take lessons from this strategically imaginative approach to apply it to other problems?

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No94, 4 April 2013

Posted on April 4, 2013 by Helene Lavoix

Frailties and Contagion: A bug is creating strange phenomena with the editing process this week, but there is still a lot to read, even if it is not always on the front page. The focus for the week is, besides the East Asian rising tensions, on the Middle East and the Syrian conflict increasingly impacting other countries, not only in the fragile region but also in Europe… which is, somehow, no less fragile, if for different reasons.

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No93, 28 March 2013

Posted on March 28, 2013 by Helene Lavoix

Are political authorities back? Many high-tech and cyber related signals emerged this week, from the massive DDoS attack to digital arm trade, right to kill hackers, DNA computing, quantum technology or space entrepreneurs, besides the possibility of renewed attacks by “climato-skeptics,” when scientists wonder if the frozen spring could be linked to a slower gulf stream, and when political impacts of natural catastrophes start being studies more consistently. Meanwhile, the Syrian quagmire deepens, progressively dragging the region in, and tensions in Northeast Asia heighten. And at the core, because strong political authorities are crucial to deal with those multiple challenges, Cyprus as a potential signal of finally awakened “rulers,” taking income where it is rather than impoverishing further their capabilities and support base, a new episode in the age-old struggle of the fight between rulers and wealthy, liquidity awash elite.