crisis Archives - The Red Team Analysis Society https://redanalysis.org/tag/crisis/ Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Geopolitics ･ Scenarios Fri, 14 Apr 2023 08:11:43 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://redanalysis.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/cropped-RTAS-Logo-Vectorise-Disque-Blanc-PNG-1000-x-1000-32x32.png crisis Archives - The Red Team Analysis Society https://redanalysis.org/tag/crisis/ 32 32 128105080 From the Diaoyu Islands, with Warning https://redanalysis.org/2022/03/16/diaoyu-islands/ https://redanalysis.org/2022/03/16/diaoyu-islands/#respond Wed, 16 Mar 2022 18:44:41 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=2821 https://redanalysis.org/2022/03/16/diaoyu-islands/feed/ 0 2821 How to Analyse Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios and War https://redanalysis.org/2019/11/15/scenarios-war/ https://redanalysis.org/2019/11/15/scenarios-war/#comments Fri, 15 Nov 2019 12:00:34 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=5716 Continue reading "How to Analyse Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios and War"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2019/11/15/scenarios-war/feed/ 6 5716 The Middle East Powder Keg and the Great Battle for Raqqa https://redanalysis.org/2017/06/12/the-middle-east-powder-keg-and-the-great-battle-for-raqqa/ Mon, 12 Jun 2017 08:23:20 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=15248 As events accelerate both within Syria on the battlefield and in the region, this article monitors and analyse these developments. It seeks to answer the question: do the unfolding states of affairs increase, or on the contrary decrease, the likelihood to see an intensification of Turkish escalation against the Syrian Kurds and, de facto, Northern Syria? We shall look first at the race that is taking place on the Syrian battlefield around the Battle of Raqqa and towards Deir es-Zor, there addressing furthermore the entrance of a new level of Iranian influence. We shall then turn to the evolving crisis around Qatar, pointing out notably impacts on Turkey and how  that crisis and the Battle of Raqqa feed into each other to heighten the risk to …

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]]> 15248 Conflict in Ukraine – Setting the Stage https://redanalysis.org/2014/05/19/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-ukraine-setting-the-stage/ Mon, 19 May 2014 09:41:26 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=7183 The crisis in Ukraine started on 21 November 2013 with the Euromaidan protests in Kiev. Six months later, it is threatening to become a full-blown civil war with severe global impacts, unless the situation is stabilised. As for any conflict it is important to assess possible futures and impacts at all levels.  Image: Mstyslav Chernov/Unframe – CC BY-SA 3.0 This article starts a series on the conflict in Ukraine, which aims at providing the most possible useful analysis of the situation. As we did with Syria, the series will focus on the states of play for the actors and the situation on the ground, a necessary foundation for any proper strategic foresight and warning regarding the conflict. After outlining our analytical framework to overcome the difficulties related to propaganda, we shall …

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]]> 7183 The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 144, Geopolitics also matters for businesses https://redanalysis.org/2014/03/20/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-144-geopolitics-also-matters-for-businesses/ https://redanalysis.org/2014/03/20/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-144-geopolitics-also-matters-for-businesses/#respond Thu, 20 Mar 2014 12:22:22 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=6850 Continue reading "The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 144, Geopolitics also matters for businesses"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2014/03/20/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-144-geopolitics-also-matters-for-businesses/feed/ 0 6850 The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 6 February 2014 – The financial system… again https://redanalysis.org/2014/02/06/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no138-6-february-2014/ https://redanalysis.org/2014/02/06/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no138-6-february-2014/#respond Thu, 06 Feb 2014 14:26:48 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=6402 Continue reading "The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 6 February 2014 – The financial system… again"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2014/02/06/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no138-6-february-2014/feed/ 0 6402 How to Analyze Future Security Threats (5): Scenarios and Crises https://redanalysis.org/2014/01/13/how-to-analyze-future-security-threats-5-scenarios-and-crises/ Mon, 13 Jan 2014 14:01:28 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=5847 This article is the fifth of a series looking for a methodology that would fulfil the challenging criteria demanded by our time, notably in terms of speed and resources. The previous article focused on how to build scenarios for war. Here we look at scenarios for situations qualified as non-violent crises, taking mainly as example the crisis between China and Japan in the East China Sea over the Diaoyu (China)/Senkaku (Japan) Islands. War or crisis? It is important, first, to note that the words used in political discourses to qualify a situation may create an element of confusion when we think about an issue such as crisis, conflict and war. Actors may have many reasons for using euphemisms rather than …

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]]> 5847 How to Analyze Future Security Threats (3): Scenarios as an Organic Living System https://redanalysis.org/2013/12/16/methodology-to-analyze-future-security-threats-3-scenarios/ Mon, 16 Dec 2013 16:40:50 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=5758 This article is the third of a series looking for a methodology that would fulfill the challenging criteria demanded by our time. We shall now focus on scenarios, which are a way to simulate how the actors we defined and described during the previous step interact, not only among themselves but also with their environment, up until the end of the chosen timeframe. Using the precedent post’s game of chess analogy, with scenarios we imagine the various ways the game may “end”. Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyse Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1)Methodology to Analyse Future Security Threats (2): a Game of ChessHow to Analyse Future Security Threats (3): Scenarios as an Organic Living SystemHow to Analyse Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios …

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]]> 5758 The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No129, 5 December 2013 https://redanalysis.org/2013/12/05/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no129-5-december-2013/ https://redanalysis.org/2013/12/05/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no129-5-december-2013/#respond Thu, 05 Dec 2013 13:04:10 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=5656 Continue reading "The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No129, 5 December 2013"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2013/12/05/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no129-5-december-2013/feed/ 0 5656 The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No127, 21 November 2013 https://redanalysis.org/2013/11/21/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no127-21-november-2013/ https://redanalysis.org/2013/11/21/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no127-21-november-2013/#respond Thu, 21 Nov 2013 12:42:32 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=5592 Continue reading "The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No127, 21 November 2013"

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