environment Archives - The Red Team Analysis Society

Adapting to the Burning World?

Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris) — Mon, 09 Nov 2020 11:54:36 +0000

Design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli A Bright and Burning Future Over the last years, each summer, tsunamis of fire surge in North America, Russia, Africa, South Asia, and Europe. Each year, they break former records and spread wider, while becoming much more intense. These fires define the parts of the world that are going to become a …

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Collapse War in the Middle East?

Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris) — Tue, 07 Apr 2015 08:29:00 +0000

The current war raging throughout Syria and Iraq is profoundly singular, because it combines itself with the social and environmental collapse, combined with the severe effects of climate change, known by these societies. In Iraq, the current war is waged between, on the one hand, the Kurdish forces, and the Iraqi army, both supported in a way or another by the Iranian forces and air strikes delivered by the US-led coalition (Rowan Scarborough, “Iranian Quds force aiding Iraqi Shiites with Obama administration’s blessing”, The Washington Times, September 20, 2014) and the aggressor, the Islamic State, on the other (Valantin, “Environment, Climate Change, War and the State”, The Red Team Analysis Society, March 16, 2015). It is in itself politically quite …

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The Persian Gulf, between Power and Collapse

Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris) — Mon, 09 Dec 2013 10:24:48 +0000

A tale of two cities: Warsaw, Teheran At the international United Nations conference on climate change in Warsaw, Poland, started on the 12th of November, the Philippine diplomat begged for the negotiators to find an international binding accord on climate, one day after a monster storm left a trail of mass destruction in his country. At the end of tense negotiations, it was established that each country should define national contributions for this global effort, which will be discussed during further negotiations. At the very same time, in Geneva, a historic deal was struck between Iran, the five permanent members of the UN security council and Germany, about Iran nuclear program: Teheran promised to suspend it, in exchange of a …

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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No125, 7 November 2013

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Thu, 07 Nov 2013 12:18:10 +0000

The Million Mask March organized by Anonymous on 5 November as a day of global protest received little attention in the media and mobilized, according to photos, less than what could be seen previously with Occupy. However, it can nevertheless be taken as an indication of a generalized discontent, even if it is neither mobilized …

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Facing the Fog of War in Syria: The Tragedy of Kurdistan

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 04 Nov 2013 18:54:05 +0000

This post is an update for the State of Play: The Kurds in the Syrian civil war. It can be read independently, but readers will be able to refer to the initial post for background. A general call to arms to fight Jihadis – Since first clashes erupted on 12 July 2013, intensifying on 16 …

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No97, 25 April 2013

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 10:30:00 +0000

Our own worst enemies – One major lesson that can be learned for the Boston tragedy is that efforts at improving systems and alertness can never stop in times of heightened tension and threats multiplication, at least not as long as problems have not been properly analyzed, causes courageously tackled, and real solutions imagined and …

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No93, 28 March 2013

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 14:15:39 +0000

Horizon Scanning for National Security No93 - Are political authorities back? Many high-tech and cyber related signals emerged this week, from the massive DDoS attack to digital arm trade, right to kill hackers, DNA computing, quantum technology or space entrepreneurs, besides the possibility of renewed attacks by "climato-skeptics," when scientists wonder if the frozen spring could be linked to a slower gulf stream, and when political impacts of natural catastrophes start being studies more consistently. Meanwhile, the Syrian quagmire deepens, progressively dragging the region in, and tensions in Northeast Asia heighten. And at the core...

The Shale Oil and Gas Security Sigils

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 17:55:32 +0000

Shale fuels, a potential game changer, remain controversial, notably considering the various environmental risks, the social opposition and distrust, the uncertainty regarding recoverable reserves, the evolution of technology and regulations, and the opposite interests of different actors. It is thus crucial to scan and monitor...

The Coal Sigils

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Fri, 18 May 2012 10:25:44 +0000

The aim of the Coal Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on coal security. We are currently investigating new AI ways to deliver an even better Coal Security Sigils. The original complimentary version ran from May 2012 to April 2023. Why a Sigils focused on coal since 2012? According to a release by the …

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2218 EVT – Tragic events

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 05:58:42 +0000

Tragic events strike Everstate. We witness tornadoes and drought, war in the Middle East and even a major industrial accident, while a new episode of financial crisis starts. These are instances of the various conditions presiding to Everstate's destiny, considering what has been done, or not, globally, regionally and within Everstate.

The same set of events should be used to stress test each scenario. The logic of the scenario will however comes first, assuming it impacts the plausibility of the event. In that case, ....