(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Following the 2026 summit in Davos, the American threat on Greenland has taken a less dramatic turn. However, the issue has not disappeared. Meanwhile, the impacts of the crisis are wide-ranging and will be long-lasting. As a result, we must continue monitoring how events unfold. Critically, we also need …
Tag Archives: EU
The American Threat against Greenland: When Should It Have Triggered a Watch?
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) On 23 December 25, Trump declared again he wanted to take over Greenland.1James Landale and Rachel Hagan, “Trump says US ‘has to have’ Greenland after naming special envoy”, BBC, 23 December 2025. By December 25, tensions over the issue were already high, especially between the U.S. and the Kingdom of Denmark.2See …
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The Red Team Analysis Society selected for Frontex June 2023 Industry Days
We are happy to share with our readers our selection for Frontex June 2023 Industry days. Frontex explains what are its Industry days as follows: “Frontex assists the EU countries in supporting the development of modern technologies for the European Border and Coast Community. As part of its mandate, Frontex regularly meets with industry, researchers, …
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China, With or Against Russia?
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Russia’s attack on Ukraine on 24 February 2022 is profoundly changing the international order. The shock is notably hard for countries such as the members of the European Union, who thought they would be at peace for ever. Suddenly, these countries, their economic actors and their citizens rediscover war and the …
Resources to Follow the War in Ukraine
(Last updated 28 Feb 22 20:50 CET: added access to UN General Assembly Live) At 3:00 GMT Russia launched an attack on Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin dubbed it a “special military operation”. Immediately, part of the international community condemned this attack. What is happening on the ground? How are events unfolding? How is the …
Multiplicating Crises: Strategic Surprises or Strategic Shocks?
(Art direction Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli using a photograph created by Pete Linforth) Over the last decades, strategic surprises have accumulated and accelerated rather than receded. They continue to do so. Most actors, from governments and international organisations to businesses through citizens seem to be constantly and increasingly surprised by events they fail to anticipate, and thus for which …
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Winning the Race to Exascale Computing – AI, Computing Power and Geopolitics (4)
This article focuses on the race to exascale computing and its multi-dimensional political and geopolitical impacts, a crucial response major actors are implementing in terms of High Performance Computing (HPC) power, notably for the development of their artificial intelligence (AI) systems. It thus ends for now our series on HPC as driver of and stake for AI, among the five we identified in Artificial Intelligence – Forces, Drivers and Stakes: the classical big data, HPC and the race to quantum supremacy as related critical uncertainty, algorithms, “sensors and expressors”, and finally needs and usages.
Signal: Political Dealings and Scenarios in Spain vs Catalonia
Impact on Issues ➘ + ➙ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain (see further outlined scenarios below) – ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally Warning (Opportunity) – Opportunity to plan ahead for the EU and its member states, as well as worldwide? Independence is meant to be declared by Catalonia President Carles Puigdemont on 10 …
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Beyond the End of Globalisation – From the Brexit to U.S. President Trump
The world has entered a period where uncertainty rules and where surprises abound.
Focusing on 2016, the two major surprises usually singled out are the Brexit or the vote leading to the exit of the U.K. from the European Union, then the election of U.S. President Trump against favourite Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Even though a short-term focus could let us believe that the turmoil only or mainly hits “the West”, political and geopolitical surprises and uncertainties have multiplied worldwide, starting at least with the shock of the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008 and responses to it (see end note for some major instances*).
What is thus happening? How are we to tackle the uncertainty? Are these surprises related or discrete independent events that it would be wrong to link or try to understand together?
We shall start here with the 2016 surprises and related ongoing uncertainty, i.e. the Brexit and the U.S. Trump Presidency, and focus more particularly on the contradictions and questions that arise when we compare the two phenomena. We shall seek a framework for and elements of understanding, which can then be used in the development of scenarios for the future.
Lessons from and for the Brexit – Geopolitics, Uncertainties, and Business (2)
On 24 June 2016 morning, the U.K. announced the results of the referendum on the Brexit: 51.9% of the population voted to leave the EU against 48.1% wanting to remain, while the turnout reached 72,2% (BBC Referendum Results). This vote triggered among the media, financial and European political elite a “shock”, consternation, and a host of predictions of impending doom, while markets plunged worldwide (BBC News, “Brexit: What the world’s papers say“, 24 June 2016). It also set off a series of events and dynamics still unfolding nowadays with far-ranging consequences, globally, for the future. We shall use this real life case to further enhance our understanding of the way businesses and the corporate world relate to and especially anticipate or …
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