future Archives - The Red Team Analysis Society

Communication of Strategic Foresight and Early Warning

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Wed, 03 Mar 2021 16:32:19 +0000

A warning does not exist if it is not delivered. This is a key lesson highlighted by the famous expert in warning Cynthia Grabo, who worked as an intelligence analyst for the U.S. government from 1942 to 1980 (Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, Editor’s Preface). Similarly, a foresight product such as scenarios, for example, …

Continue reading "Communication of Strategic Foresight and Early Warning"

Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 24 Feb 2020 17:21:02 +0000

When dealing with the future, we use a language that includes specific notions such as the expression of probability and of impacts. In terms of probability, for example, we use words such as “likely” and for impacts terms such as “severe”. Furthermore, to be truly complete, we should add a confidence judgement. As explained by …

Continue reading "Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language"

Mapping the Race to Quantum Computing: The UK National Quantum Technologies Programme

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Wed, 03 Jul 2019 09:08:14 +0000

Quantum computing and more generally Quantum Information Science (QIS) are more than ever on the global agenda. We focus here on the UK National Quantum Technologies Programme and policy, and how the UK fares in the race to quantum technologies. This article is part of our ongoing research on the issue. With the first item …

Continue reading "Mapping the Race to Quantum Computing: The UK National Quantum Technologies Programme"

Foreseeing the Future of the Modern Nation-State: the Chronicles of Everstate

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 29 Apr 2019 08:46:07 +0000

Riots and protests have been progressively, and in an accelerating way, occurring in many countries. Starting with France in 2005, they spread throughout most of the world, from the Arab Spring to Thailand through Hong Kong, the U.S. or, more recently Venezuela, Algeria and France, again, with the Yellow Vest movement at the end of …

Continue reading "Foreseeing the Future of the Modern Nation-State: the Chronicles of Everstate"

Smart Agriculture, International Power and National Interest

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Thu, 11 Apr 2019 13:05:00 +0000

Smart farming, the combination of agriculture, artificial intelligence (AI) and the internet of things (IoT), will help tackle the various challenges of food security, and usher the happenstance of a new world. It will also change what international food security means. We present here some of the features of the new “international smart food security”. …

Continue reading "Smart Agriculture, International Power and National Interest"

★ Sensor and Actuator for AI (3) – Artificial Intelligence, the Internet of Things and the Future of Agriculture: Smart Agriculture Security? (2)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 08 Apr 2019 16:38:04 +0000

One of the current focuses regarding Artificial Intelligence is on ethics. For example, on 8 April 2019 the European Commission published its Communication Building Trust in Human-Centric Artificial Intelligence. Google, despite set backs, also tries to implement an AI ethics board (Kelsey Piper, “Exclusive: Google cancels AI ethics board in response to outcry“, Vox, 4 …

Continue reading "★ Sensor and Actuator for AI (3) – Artificial Intelligence, the Internet of Things and the Future of Agriculture: Smart Agriculture Security? (2)"

★ Sensor and Actuator for AI (2) – Artificial Intelligence, the Internet of Things and the Future of Agriculture: Smart Agriculture Security? (1)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 01 Apr 2019 09:37:14 +0000

This article explores the way artificial intelligence (AI) is inserted within its environment through the Internet of Things in a particular domain, agriculture. As a result, “smart agriculture”, a whole new way to produce food, is born. We look at the way various actors include AI in farming and thus envision and develop the future …

Continue reading "★ Sensor and Actuator for AI (2) – Artificial Intelligence, the Internet of Things and the Future of Agriculture: Smart Agriculture Security? (1)"

Strategic Foresight & Warning Analysis

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Fri, 04 Jan 2019 07:00:11 +0000

Strategic Foresight and Warning (SF&W) is at once process and analysis. By SF&W analysis we mean all methodologies and related issues allowing for the development of an understanding grounded in reality that will generate best anticipatory products, useful to decision-makers and policy-makers for carrying out their mission (to find your way within the myriad of labels …

Continue reading "Strategic Foresight & Warning Analysis"

Revisiting Timeliness for Strategic Foresight and Warning and Risk Management

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 01 Oct 2018 09:25:10 +0000

[Fully rewritten version v3] To exist, risk and foresight products as well as warnings must be delivered to those who must act upon them, the customers, clients or users. These anticipation analyses must also be actionable, which means that they need to include the right information necessary to see action taken. Yet, if you deliver …

Continue reading "Revisiting Timeliness for Strategic Foresight and Warning and Risk Management"

Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya – Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition

Jon Mitchell (Ma) — Tue, 09 May 2017 11:02:59 +0000

Featured image: Operation Triton by Tomh903 [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring—thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. In this article, we shall discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. When discussing the potential directions of spillover, north refers to Europe; east refers to Egypt; south refers to Niger and Chad; and west refers to Algeria and Tunisia. Note: In the following article, we shall use the acronym COR for the Council of Representatives (nationalists), GNC for the General National Congress (Islamists), and …

Continue reading “Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya – Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition”

The remaining part of this article is for our members. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Log in and access this article.