The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No104, 13 June 2013

In the midst of turmoil – Once you get beyond the tsunami of articles regarding the NSA, we continue seeing the same pattern of deep and painful changes emerging as observed over the last months. Eurozone countries are not only in crisis, but, most probably, living through a deep shift. For now, Greece leads the way in bearing the brunt of changes, but the UK, Italy, Ireland, or France, this week, are not being spared. We may also wonder if the events in Turkey, after the Arab Spring, the Real Democracy Now movement in Europe, notably Spain, and the Occupy movement are not one supplementary symptom of the increasingly numerous and widespread efforts of societies to find their way in a world that has changed, is changing and has not stabilized yet.
Meanwhile, geo-strategically, the Middle East is definitely in the midst of turmoil, while Asia faces its own changes and challenges, India being again under the spot light this week.

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national security, anticipatory intelligence, political risk

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No102, 30 May 2013

Cognitive shift? Interestingly, compared with only a few months ago, the signals are increasingly linked to geo-strategy, war, geopolitics. The other issues remain crucial and did not disappear, but we can start seeing the overall global system changing, in terms of preeminence given to types of challenges too.

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horizon scanning, national security, political risk, anticipatory intelligence, warning, signal

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No100, 16 May 2013

Redrawing the global strategic and geopolitical map: From the Syrian civil war and its impact on the region and beyond, with its many uncertainties, moving alliances and dilemmas, to the China-Japan unrelenting tension over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, through the rush for the Arctic, without forgetting the European quagmire and its multi-faceted apparently slow-moving polarization, this is actually the global political and strategic map that is being redrawn. How it will look like is still shrouded in the fog of war … or rather of wars, crises, and battles, present and, unfortunately, to come.

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national security, political risk, horizon scanning, geopolitics, anticipatory intelligence

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No98, 2 May 2013

Imagination, boldness, vision and fortitude wanted – How do you face a changing world fraught with more threats and impossible choices when you have less resources, or when resources are concentrated where national security responsibilities are not?

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horizon scanning, political risk, national security, weak signal

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No94, 4 April 2013

Frailties and Contagion: A bug is creating strange phenomena with the editing process this week, but there is still a lot to read, even if it is not always on the front page. The focus for the week is, besides the East Asian rising tensions, on the Middle East and the Syrian conflict increasingly impacting other countries, not only in the fragile region but also in Europe… which is, somehow, no less fragile, if for different reasons.

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horizon scanning, political risk, national security, intelligence

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No93, 28 March 2013

Are political authorities back? Many high-tech and cyber related signals emerged this week, from the massive DDoS attack to digital arm trade, right to kill hackers, DNA computing, quantum technology or space entrepreneurs, besides the possibility of renewed attacks by “climato-skeptics,” when scientists wonder if the frozen spring could be linked to a slower gulf stream, and when political impacts of natural catastrophes start being studies more consistently. Meanwhile, the Syrian quagmire deepens, progressively dragging the region in, and tensions in Northeast Asia heighten. And at the core, because strong political authorities are crucial to deal with those multiple challenges, Cyprus as a potential signal of finally awakened “rulers,” taking income where it is rather than impoverishing further their capabilities and support base, a new episode in the age-old struggle of the fight between rulers and wealthy, liquidity awash elite.

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horizon scanning, national security, weak signal, risk

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No92, 21 March 2013

Global Experiment and Fog of Transition: Those two labels – the first borrowed from Paul Krugman’s now famous interview, and the second from Global Trends 2030, among others, itself adapted from von Clausewitz’s fog of war – seem to describe most aptly the current period, and the short (to medium?) term future.

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Horizon scanning, National Security, monitoring, intelligence, weak signal

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No91, 14 March 2013

The Actors and the System: Powerlessness? If we were to estimate the power of the actors by their ability to stabilize the system, they would not fare very well, and this, in itself, is a signal that tensions will most probably continue to rise and escalate in intensity, as well as widen in scope. One of the interesting question would thus be: How long can this system withstand the pressure until it breaks?

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National Security, Horizon Scanning, Warning, War, escalation

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No90, 7 March 2013

Some Light within Darkness – For a change, let us focus on the positive (within the multiple remaining and rising challenges): climate change and environmental factors emerge this week as being increasingly integrated within our understanding of the complex dynamics at work in conflicts and more broadly threats or dangers to national security. Is the painting depicted scarier? Certainly, but understanding is also a crucial step towards solving properly problems… hopefully.

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horizon scanning, national security, war, Syria, future, climate change

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No89, 28 February 2013

Look East: Indicators are turning red! The possibility of war – between China and Japan… and the US (security treaties can also have an escalating effect) and ? –  is now very much on the agenda, despite all wishful thinking and previous disbelief. The dire financial situation of Japan, which everyone tries so hard to ignore, while US potential sequestration shockwave nears and Europe polarizes, are not the most stabilizing context and factors. We had a window of opportunity, at the beginning of February, it closed. Shall we see another opening up of “the funnel of choices” (Nye, 1993: 68-69)?

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horizon scanning, national security, war, China, Japan, warning

Joseph Nye, Understanding International Conflicts: An Introduction to Theory and History, (New York: HarperCollins, 1993).