impact Archives - The Red Team Analysis Society

Exploring cascading impacts with AI

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Wed, 17 May 2023 10:08:58 +0000

Strategic foresight, early warning and risk management require evaluating possible impacts beyond direct effects. Explore cascading effects with Pithia's AI-powered form. Discover what could be the cascading impacts of a very rapid adoption of generative AI across actors in the Western world... as identified by our AI.

From Cassandra’s Curse to the Pythia’s Success

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Tue, 18 May 2021 15:41:28 +0000

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) When delivering warnings, are we doomed to never be believed, sharing the same fate as Cassandra, the tragic character of Greek mythology? Or, on the contrary, can we hope to become as successful as the Pythia, the oracle priestess of Apollo at Delphi? Her gift of prophecy becoming a curse, Cassandra …

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Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 24 Feb 2020 17:21:02 +0000

When dealing with the future, we use a language that includes specific notions such as the expression of probability and of impacts. In terms of probability, for example, we use words such as “likely” and for impacts terms such as “severe”. Furthermore, to be truly complete, we should add a confidence judgement. As explained by …

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The Kurds in Syria – State-Building, New Model and War

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 22 May 2017 09:53:07 +0000

This article focuses on state-building in Syria’s Kurdish area, i.e. the Democratic Federal System of Northern Syria, also locally called Rojava, and potential impacts. Indeed, we saw previously that the Kurds’ capacity to build a viable polity in Northern Syria was one crucial element for evaluating not only the outcome of the battle of Raqqa against the Islamic State, but also the way Turkey could become further and more intensely embroiled in the conflict (see Helene Lavoix, “The Battle of Raqqa, the Kurds and Turkey“, The Red Team Analysis Society, 2 May 2017). Extreme cases scenarios☔ Scenario War with Turkey escalates⛵ Directly Impacted Actors: All Eurasian + Middle East states, U.S. (military, diplo); NGOs (for Syria/Iraq/Turkey); Businesses in Turkey, Trade & exchanges with Turkey; Airlines; Maritime activities; Religious institutions…⛅ Scenario Kurdish model contributes to …

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The Chinese New Silk Road in East Africa

Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris) — Mon, 30 Jan 2017 11:41:29 +0000

The Popular Republic of China (PRC) is building a naval base in Djibouti, which should be completed during 2017, alongside the already existing French and American military naval bases (“China’s base in Djibouti means more than an attribute of “global power”, Sputnik, 7/12/2016). This move is a crucial global development for China, for East Africa as …

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The Impact of the Islamic State Terrorist Attacks – Geopolitics, Uncertainties and Business (5)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 16 Jan 2017 09:42:25 +0000

Since the Islamic State declared a Khilafah on 29 June 2014, it carried out, worldwide, 6 attacks or series of attacks in 2014, which killed 2 and wounded 12 people, 23 in 2015, which killed 1020 and wounded more than 2171, 36 in 2016, which killed more than 1455 and wounded more than 3505 and so far 3 in 2017, which killed more than 109 and wounded more than 169 people, assuming all attacks are known and referenced as such (Wikipedia “List of terrorist incidents linked to ISIL“). As a whole, we thus faced 68 attacks, during which more than 2586 people lost their lives and more than 5857 were injured. Prospects for the near future look no less grim as reminded …

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Impacts of the Conflict in Ukraine – Geopolitics, Uncertainties and Business (3)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 28 Nov 2016 08:37:41 +0000

With this article and the next one, we use the instability and conflict in Ukraine and the related impacts on businesses to continue enhancing our understanding of the way businesses and the corporate world could usefully anticipate or foresee geopolitical and political risks and uncertainties. WATCH OUT – The Iran War, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis SIGNAL – The Golden Dome, a New Technological Frontier Impacts of the U.S. Threat against Greenland: the U.S.-EU Trade Deal, the EU Parliament and the Future of Europe Signal – Mini-Chronicles (11): Iran, Trump, and China The American Threat against Greenland: When Should It Have Triggered a Watch? Why the Messenger Still Gets Shot — And What You Can Do About It – Video The Real War: U.S. vs. …

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Assessing End of Year Predictions: How Did they Fare? (2)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 18:27:50 +0000

The evaluation of our 2012 predictions’ sample underlines notably a widespread conventional view of national security, novel issues being ignored; a relative inability to assess timing whilst our understanding of issues fares relatively well; the existence of major biases, notably regarding China, Russia, and the U.S; the difficulty of prediction for novel issues and old issues in new context.

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An Experiment in Assessing End of Year Predictions (1)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 16:40:56 +0000

This post will present the experiment – assessing a sample of open source predictions for the year 2012 – address the methodological problems encountered while creating the evaluation itself, and underline the lessons learned. The second part (forthcoming) will discuss results.

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2218 – 2223 EVT – From Grievances to Political Mobilisation (Mamominarch)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 07:54:36 +0000

Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement the Mamominarch programme of drastic reduction of state spending over five years through devolution, …

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