Tag Archives: polarisation

RussiaToday (RT): New Media for a Polarizing World?

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Triggered by the financial and economic crisis, protests movements have spread, notably in Europe and in the U.S., be they famously named and democratic (Los Indignados/Real Democracy Now, Occupy, etc.) or not. We call them here the “new opposition nexus.” Despite much dismissal and their inner difficulties (intrinsic to new movements), they are now worrying enough, at least in Europe, to prompt the Swiss military to conduct exercises on the theme of “violent instability in Europe,” called Stabilo Due (6 to 21 September 2012).

If you follow those movements, then an interesting trend, source-wise, has been emerging over the past months. People are increasingly referring to and using RT for information.

RT is the acronym for Russia Today, a state-sponsored yet editorially independent Russian Television Network created in 2005. Since then, it has elicited its share of criticism for biases, promoting conspiracy theory like viewpoints, and efforts to spread pro-Russian views, as described, among others, on Wikipedia, or as echoed by Zwick, ”Pravda Lite: Why are liberals lending credibility to a zany Russian TV station?” in The New Republic, trying to obtain an objective judgement (2012).

Yet, this does not deter the audience, as shown by the various social networks’ subscriptions measures, which can be taken as proxy indication for influence on the World-Wide-Web, where the new opposition nexus thrives and organises itself.

RT arrives well before VOA, or the Chinese Xinhua (and CNC World) and CCTV in terms of Twitter followers, yet is still dwarfed by mainstream CNN and BBC World, and much less followed than Al Jazeera English and Bloomberg News. The results are inverted on YouTube, where RT obtains its most amazing results. This October 2012 measure confirms the trend observed by the Pew Survey conducted from January 1, 2011, through March 30, 2012 (“YouTube and News,” July 2012) and pointed out by Jennifer Martinez on the Hill Technological Blog. We are witnessing 12,8% increase in 10 months (the Pew Survey counted more than 280.000 subscribers for RT, compared with today 315.940 subscribers).

Initially, as the RT archives show when consulted between Mars and June 2011 both for RT.com and for Actualidad RT (RT Spanish channel), the network did not follow more the rise of a new opposition movement in Europe than other media. This birth, in Europe and not in the U.S. with Occupy, continues being ignored by otherwise very interesting timelines of events such as the Guardian “Eurozone crisis: three years of pain.”
However, when the movement spread, this time, to the U.S. with Occupy, and notably when clashes with the NYPD made it famous, RT started an in-depth coverage that won it a nomination for the 2012 International Emmy Awards.

More importantly from the point of view of the new opposition nexus, since then, RT is not only part of those media that follow closely the various protests, but one of the few that tend to focus on protests first, sometimes indeed looking for more extreme events (for example, compare RT video below on the 20 October London demonstration with Al Jazeera one), over the mainstream business, economics and one-sided political elite approach. Despite in-depth reporting done by some, such as The Telegraph “Debt crisis: as it happened” or The Guardian Eurozone Crisis Live, RT is sometimes the only one (or the first one) to report on some pieces of information: for example, the participation of Greek reservists of the Special Forces in the 9 October 2012 anti-Merkel demonstration. Without blowing incidents out of proportion, those must also be considered, because, when accumulated, they are an indication of rising tension, here in Greece. In this specific case, involvement of reservists might be a weak signal indicating that the very means that allow the state to preserve its monopoly over violence could potentially be starting to fracture. More generally, if incidents are, in effect, taken out of context and rehashed by political actors, then the perception they create becomes escalating in itself.

Building upon the unorthodox financial views of the Kaiser report series, started in November 2009, this makes RT a media of choice for proponents of the protests, for people looking for and interested in non mainstream, thus alternative world-views, as well as for students of those movements.

An increasing influence of RT is also indicating the rising relative importance of interest in those alternative views. As more people experiment in their everyday life the violent impact of an unrelenting crisis, become aware of a multiplication of problems, and yet are offered by mainstream channels only old recipe, explanations and reassurances, they look for meaning and answers elsewhere.

As mainstream media continue having a strong influence, then we could be witnessing the start of a rising polarisation, notably within Western society, with RT playing a crucial role in terms of information, choice thereof, and ideas. Should this pattern be confirmed, then, ironically, it would not be without recalling, everything being equal, the role some Western radios (RFE, RFL, VOA, and BBC World) played for the Soviet dissidence during the Cold War.

2012 EVT – New Government, New Opposition, Last Hope (Panglossy)

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Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start. Dependent upon programmes created to face efficiently past challenges, prisoners of entrenched political groupings, comforted in their vision by the BRICS’ success and renewed optimism, the major parties campaign to come back to the order ante. As a result, habits and the existing system, once the new national representatives are elected and the new government starts ruling, are even more entrenched, almost ossified.

(The reader can click on each picture to see a larger version in a new tab - a navigating map of posts is available to ease reading).

Yet, something unexpected, dismissed or rather minimised by observers, is also happening during the months leading to the election: the rise of small and sometimes polarised parties, accompanied by an increase in the political mobilisation outside currently eligible parties. In this, Everstate is just exemplifying what is happening all over the Western world.

For example, in May 2012, in Germany in North Rhine-Westphalia, the new Pirate Party again fares very well. In France, the results of the first round of the Presidential elections shows a strong rise of parties on the extreme left and right of the political spectrum. In Greece, thirty-two parties compete during the first May elections, and seven, including those positioned at the extreme, win seats in Parliament. Meanwhile, the Occupy and Democracia Real Ya! – also known as Indignados – movements, born out of Spain’s mobilisation a year before, show their continuing presence, with various protests staged on May Day, then between 12 and 15 May, with varying participation rates. Signs of polarisation can also be found here. #Anonymous, in general, backs those movements from and in the virtual world, besides other operations, and represent a political force and not a criminal activity as some would like to interpret it.

Indeed free association, free speech and free assembly, enhanced by the new technological means of communication and mobilization, added to the general dissatisfaction while security is still being sought, create new extra-parliamentary organisations and mobilizations because the programmes of the classical parties and existing parliamentary groupings do not answer anymore the needs of the citizens and of the nations. The fluidity of the situation, the diversity of the types of organisations and the various stages of polarisation are symptoms of systems trying to evolve and redesign themselves, of the need for radically new programmes, which are in the making, as the underlying socio-political model are outmoded and do not offer any easy efficient solution.

As far as Occupy Everstate is concerned, they have to face some very difficult issues. What gave them their strength and made them truly representative, notably in terms of concerns and identification of crucial issues for the overall security of the nation, their faith in a fully democratic process, also constitutes an impediment as it slows and even sometimes block their decision process. Their main means of action, peaceful protests and sit-ins, so far has not allowed seeing their demands satisfied. Their successes are however far from negligible as they are now part of the political landscape, and are thus heard, when one year ago they were systematically ignored, and as they have succeeded in raising awareness to the plight of the many. Yet, the old ideas and habits they fight are as pregnant, powerful and ruling as ever.

Some groups within the movement are getting tired of obtaining nothing, of seeing the status quo continuing, while they start meeting difficulties to mobilise people. They are following the American debate existing over the “diversity of tactics.” Should they move away from the essential original non-violence – including the respect of laws and of property – of the movements to the “diversity of tactics” which includes also “property damage and armed retaliation against the police” but NOT “extremist tactics such as planting bombs and armed insurrection? (Bramhall, March 2012). True to the democratic foundation of the movement, the general answer is to convene a General Assembly to vote. However, lengthy debates have now been going on for days and nothing is solved. Furthermore the example of the Pirate Party also tempts Occupy Everstate. Should they register formally? This would allow them, maybe, entering parliament and developing their programme, and more important, getting things done (for the leadership and organisation debate going on in Spain, see Tremlett, May 2012). Yet, would they not also loose part of their soul, of their raison d’être? The tension is growing within the movement, while some actions abiding to the “diversity of tactics” start, still very rare, but yet, they happen.

The result of the new elections seems to freeze the contractions that agitate Occupy Everstate. Could this new government, maybe, bring Everstate back to where it was before life became so hard, before unfairness became unbearable, before the only way forward seemed to go to the streets to be heard or even worse? Nobody wants to sleep in the street, to be poor, to be condemned to unemployment, and even less to fight and risk one’s life. This hope, this last hope, isn’t it worth giving it a chance?

To be continued…

——

References

Stuart Jeanne Bramhall in “Debating Violence in the Occupy Movement,” Take The Square, 3 March 2012.

Giles Tremlett, “Spain’s indignado protesters face anniversary crackdown,” Guardian.co.uk, 11 May 2012.

Images

Official logo of the Swedish Pirate Party (Piratpartiet) by Piratpartiet [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons.

The OccupyCal General Assembly approves of… something. November 15 2011 by Daniel Parks from Berkeley, United States (Fingers Up) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. This image was originally posted to Flickr by D.H. Parks at http://flickr.com/photos/8073513@N03/6349212141. It was reviewed on 21 November 2011 by the FlickreviewR robot and confirmed to be licensed under the terms of the cc-by-2.0.

2018 – 2023 EVT – Escalation (Mamominarch)

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Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement the Mamominarch programme of drastic reduction of state’s spending. By 2018 EVT, the result is involution, with a rising insecurity for most Everstatans. The now fragile state cannot efficiently manage the complex catastrophes that start hitting Everstate in May. As a result, tension rises relatively uniformly while grievances increase heterogeneously. Inability to answer this multiform situation leads to a new political mobilisation, besides the classical old parties, proponents of Mamominarch: movements for local independence and direct membership in the Regional Union, including a powerful Movement for the Independence of the Trueland on the one hand, and a Movement for the Renewal of Everstate on the other.

(The reader can click on each picture to see a larger version in a new tab – a navigating map of posts is available to ease reading).

News of the terrorist attack on Novcybio International abroad, which had first gone viral among Renewers, lead to a sudden awareness that Everstate could be impacted. What if some of the last genetically modified seeds received by Novcybio Everstate for testing that have already been planted include the dangerous gene engineered by the terrorists? How can Everstatans know? What if, one day, terrorists were to conduct such an attack directly in Everstate?

In August, as soon as Novcybio International had become aware of the threat, its security service had immediately acted, while its PR team started a reassuring campaign, explaining that everything was under control, that the police force had recovered the stolen deadly pathogens and that all potentially dangerous seeds had been identified, and most of them traced and recalled. Now, only a few of them are still missing, but Novcybio International headquarters’ security is working hand in hand with its branches and the authorities of the various countries potentially impacted. Unfortunately, Everstate is on the list of those countries. Soon, Everstate’s central government, the local authorities of the Continental South-East and Novcybio Everstate issue a joint statement asserting that the incriminated seeds have been found, that none of them has thus been planted and that they have now been destroyed.

However, investigations carried out by Renewers point out that one month elapsed between the terrorist attack on Novcybio International and the Everstatan joint statement. The Movement thus accuses the involved actors of complacency, which threatens the security of all Everstatans. This, added to the fresh memories all Everstatans have of the way the complex catastrophes of the Spring were mishandled, implies that few Everstatans fully believe the official joint-statement. People ask for evidence and for the resignation of all political actors involved. Rumours start spreading. This is an impact of the degraded legitimacy presiding over Everstate. The local authorities, seeing their authority imperilled and their power threatened, start distancing themselves from the central authorities, accusing them of inefficiency and saying they did not provide all necessary help. They turn to the Regional Union to ask for further test and control of Novcybio Everstate.

They also try to join the Movement for the Independence of the Trueland, arguing that Trueland covers the whole South-East, and not solely its maritime façade. However, the Truelanders’ leaders reject the idea, as they see the Novcybio affair and the continuing rumors as one more reason to distance themselves from the rest of the country, for the security of real Truelanders. The local authorities of the Continental South-East, as their position is directly threatened on the one hand, as they feel rejected and cornered on the other, then become even more virulent than other proponents of the various local movements for independence, while also starting a campaign explaining that the Trueland cannot be divided between a maritime and continental part.

By StMH (Own work), GFDL or CC-BY-SA-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.0, via Wikimedia Commons

One night Novcybio Everstate is burnt to the ground with the test crops planted on its land. Immediately, the Regional Union and various countries appeal to Everstate’s central government to put its house in order, while Novcybio International asks for compensation. When central officers are sent to the site of the arson to investigate, they are denied entry by angry citizens. As they ask for police support, local authorities refuse it, arguing that they will deal with the problem, which does not concern in any way central authorities.

Everstate’s central political authorities should answer to this direct denial of their power by imposing their will, sending the army if need be. However, considering the highly tense situation, they hesitate, afraid of the consequences. Furthermore, Novstate, which provides both some of the police forces of the Continental South-East and many of the Everstatan armed forces, does not favour seeing its men fighting each other.

The new episode of the global financial crisis that starts in October lessens the international political pressure put on Everstate to remedy to its internal disorder. Other countries, as well as the Regional Union, are now focused on other more important matters. For Everstate, the new general break on liquidity that ensues, as the country is still as dependent as ever on international borrowing, means that it must face new difficulties to pay its remaining central civilian and military staff. Local authorities are also impacted, however in various ways according to the situation of each city and region. Everstate does not participate in the international discussions trying to deal with the global financial disorder, except through Novstate, which is present along other powerful private sector’s representatives.

Italian sphere of influence in Turkey according to the agreements of 1917 in Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne by Arthur James Balfour (1848-1930), Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

When a new conflict starts in the Middle East, Everstate, which used to be an important player in this region, is not even invited to the summits that take place to try bringing back peace. The Renewers then judge that the country is falling apart, has lost a tremendous amount of crucial international influence and is falling prey to parochial problems that not only do not address the initial real challenges and pressures that endanger the lives of all Everstatans, but, on the contrary, aggravate them. The Renewers thus ask for a resignation of Everstate’s government and for the end of the Mamominarch system.

To be continued…

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No27, 22d December 2011

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No27, 22d December 2011

Weak signals of polarisation are emerging regarding the interactions between the new opposition nexus and political authorities, and prospects for further and more widespread instability rise, notably in India – no need to mention Europe anymore. In the meantime, international tension does not abate with Iran, and now a transition going on in North Korea. Meanwhile cybersecurity was very much spotted as being increasingly a concern, but nothing new here.

Nevertheless, a Merry Christmas or Season’s Greetings to all!