socio-political model Archives - The Red Team Analysis Society https://redanalysis.org/tag/socio-political-model/ Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Geopolitics ･ Scenarios Mon, 25 Nov 2024 12:03:04 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://redanalysis.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/cropped-RTAS-Logo-Vectorise-Disque-Blanc-PNG-1000-x-1000-32x32.png socio-political model Archives - The Red Team Analysis Society https://redanalysis.org/tag/socio-political-model/ 32 32 128105080 From Seer to King – Success with Strategic Foresight and Warning https://redanalysis.org/2021/07/13/from-seer-to-king-success-with-strategic-foresight-and-warning/ https://redanalysis.org/2021/07/13/from-seer-to-king-success-with-strategic-foresight-and-warning/#comments Tue, 13 Jul 2021 18:51:39 +0000 https://redanalysis.org/?p=29977 Continue reading "From Seer to King – Success with Strategic Foresight and Warning"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2021/07/13/from-seer-to-king-success-with-strategic-foresight-and-warning/feed/ 3 29977 The Kurds in Syria – State-Building, New Model and War https://redanalysis.org/2017/05/22/the-kurds-in-syria-state-building-new-model-and-war/ Mon, 22 May 2017 09:53:07 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=14989 This article focuses on state-building in Syria’s Kurdish area, i.e. the Democratic Federal System of Northern Syria, also locally called Rojava, and potential impacts. Indeed, we saw previously that the Kurds’ capacity to build a viable polity in Northern Syria was one crucial element for evaluating not only the outcome of the battle of Raqqa against the Islamic State, but also the way Turkey could become further and more intensely embroiled in the conflict (see Helene Lavoix, “The Battle of Raqqa, the Kurds and Turkey“,  The Red Team Analysis Society, 2 May 2017). Extreme cases scenarios☔  Scenario War with Turkey escalates⛵ Directly Impacted Actors: All Eurasian + Middle East states, U.S. (military, diplo); NGOs (for Syria/Iraq/Turkey); Businesses in Turkey, Trade & exchanges with Turkey; Airlines; Maritime activities; Religious institutions…⛅ Scenario Kurdish model contributes to …

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]]> 14989 2213 – 2218 EVT – Learning from Water Privatization? (Panglossy) https://redanalysis.org/2012/07/15/2013-2018-panglossy-water-privatization/ Sun, 15 Jul 2012 08:00:15 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=2636 This post, as many others in the Chronicles of Everstate, can be read both as part of the scenarios on the future of the nation-state, as explained below, or as part of the section on Global Water Security. This shows how all issues are intertwined, and that the multiple existing feedbacks should not be ignored. Previously: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start, which begins the second scenario, Panglossy. The new Everstatan government, dependent upon past thinking, decides that a return to economic efficiency …

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]]> 2636 2213 – 2218 EVT – Unforeseen Outrage: Privatising the Commons (Panglossy) https://redanalysis.org/2012/07/08/2013-2018-evt-unforeseen-outrage-panglossy/ Sun, 08 Jul 2012 07:54:27 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=2591 Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start, which begins the second scenario, Panglossy. The new Everstatan government, dependent upon past thinking, decides that a return to economic efficiency through growth is the key to the crisis. The first years, however, fail to bring back growth; the power of the lenders’ nexus and induced appropriation of public power continue unabated as the regulation of the international financial system does not progress. The initial efforts to fund growth through infrastructure investments show minimal …

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]]> 2591 2213 – 2218 EVT – Novstate-Air: Fighting Air Pollution for Profit (Panglossy) https://redanalysis.org/2012/07/01/2013-2018-evt-novair-fighting-air-pollution-for-profit-panglossy/ Sun, 01 Jul 2012 07:32:50 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=2580 Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start, which begins the second scenario, Panglossy. The new Everstatan government, dependent upon past thinking, decides that a return to economic efficiency through growth is the key to the crisis. Its first measure, to raise the minimum wage, fails to boost growth through consumption. As the new international meeting group for the resilience of the financial system IRESFIS does not show any progress, the ISSIGE, the international fund to promote green growth through infrastructure investment …

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]]> 2580 2213 – 2218 EVT – Green Growth in Action (Panglossy) https://redanalysis.org/2012/06/24/2013-2018-evt-green-growth-in-action-panglossy/ Sun, 24 Jun 2012 07:49:02 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=2538 Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start, which begins the second scenario, Panglossy. The new Everstatan government, dependent upon past thinking, decides that a return to economic efficiency through growth is the key to the crisis. Its first measure, to raise the minimum wage, fails to boost growth through consumption. The first high level conference of the ISSIGE, the international fund to promote green growth through infrastructure investment, is hailed as a success. However, as the new international meeting group for …

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]]> 2538 2213 – 2218 EVT – Investing for Green Growth without Liquidity (2) (Panglossy) https://redanalysis.org/2012/06/17/2013-2018-evt-investing-for-green-growth-without-liquidity-2-panglossy/ Sun, 17 Jun 2012 07:34:25 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=2490 Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start, which starts the second scenario, Panglossy. The new Everstatan government, dependent upon past thinking, decides that a return to economic efficiency through growth is the key to the crisis. Its first measure, to raise the minimum wage, fails to boost growth through consumption. The second, longer term, policy, which promotes green growth through infrastructure investment, starts with the preparation of the first high level conference of ISSIGE. Notably, funding through the emission of bonds, …

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]]> 2490 2213 – 2218 EVT – Investing for Green Growth without Liquidity (I) (Panglossy) https://redanalysis.org/2012/06/10/2013-2018-evt-investing-for-green-growth-without-liquidity-i-panglossy/ Sun, 10 Jun 2012 07:45:42 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=2460 Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start, which starts the second scenario, Panglossy. Dependent upon programmes created to face efficiently past challenges, prisoners of entrenched political groupings, the major parties campaign to come back to the order ante. Meanwhile, the polarisation and rise of a new opposition that took place during the election is temporarily frozen by the last hope thus created. The new Everstatan government, dependent upon past thinking, decides that a return to economic efficiency through growth is the …

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]]> 2460 2213 – 2218 EVT – Increasing wages: not enough, too late? (Panglossy) https://redanalysis.org/2012/06/03/2013-2018-evt-panglossy/ Sun, 03 Jun 2012 07:54:18 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=2362 Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start, which starts the second scenario, Panglossy. Dependent upon programmes created to face efficiently past challenges, prisoners of entrenched political groupings, the major parties campaign to come back to the order ante. Meanwhile, the polarisation and rise of a new opposition that took place during the election is temporarily frozen by the last hope thus created. The new Everstatan government decides that a return to economic efficiency through growth is the key to the crisis. …

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]]> 2362 2212-2213 EVT – Restoring Growth (Panglossy) https://redanalysis.org/2012/05/27/2012-2013-evt-restoring-economic-efficiency-panglossy/ Sun, 27 May 2012 07:58:12 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=2240 Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start. Dependent upon programmes created to face efficiently past challenges, prisoners of entrenched political groupings, comforted in their vision by the BRICS’ success and renewed optimism, the major parties campaign to come back to the order ante. As a result, habits and the existing system, once the new national representatives are elected and the new government starts ruling, are even more entrenched, almost ossified. Meanwhile, the polarisation and rise of a new opposition that took …

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