strategic foresight Archives - The Red Team Analysis Society

A FAQ on Geopolitics, Strategic Foresight, Early Warning… and more

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Thu, 10 Mar 2022 14:39:54 +0000

What is strategic foresight?Strategic Foresight is a process and a methodology of analysis. It seeks to anticipate the future, and to reduce the potential for ... Continue reading

The Water Sigils

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Wed, 09 Mar 2022 19:44:17 +0000

The aim of the Water Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on water security. We are currently investigating new AI ways to deliver an even better Water Sigils. The original complimentary version ran from May 2012 to April 2023. The Sigils are a series of scans exploring the horizon for weak signals related to various …

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Assessing the “Strategic” in Strategic Surprise

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 19:30:03 +0000

Strategic foresight and early warning are grounded in the idea of preventing surprise and more specifically strategic surprise. However, if we move away from the general idea of “strategic surprise” and try to be specific, i.e. if we try to apply the concept to a specific threat or issue we try to anticipate, then the …

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Strategic Foresight, Warning and Intelligence Products and Documents

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Wed, 28 Apr 2021 17:04:46 +0000

You will find below public documents and products related to strategic foresight, warning, risk analysis and intelligence, published by countries, international organisations and private actors. Interesting documents are added progressively. Latest, we added the video just published (28 April 2021) by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence to advertise their recently released …

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Communication of Strategic Foresight and Early Warning

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Wed, 03 Mar 2021 16:32:19 +0000

A warning does not exist if it is not delivered. This is a key lesson highlighted by the famous expert in warning Cynthia Grabo, who worked as an intelligence analyst for the U.S. government from 1942 to 1980 (Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, Editor’s Preface). Similarly, a foresight product such as scenarios, for example, …

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Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 24 Feb 2020 17:21:02 +0000

When dealing with the future, we use a language that includes specific notions such as the expression of probability and of impacts. In terms of probability, for example, we use words such as “likely” and for impacts terms such as “severe”. Furthermore, to be truly complete, we should add a confidence judgement. As explained by …

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Mapping the Race to Quantum Computing: The UK National Quantum Technologies Programme

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Wed, 03 Jul 2019 09:08:14 +0000

Quantum computing and more generally Quantum Information Science (QIS) are more than ever on the global agenda. We focus here on the UK National Quantum Technologies Programme and policy, and how the UK fares in the race to quantum technologies. This article is part of our ongoing research on the issue. With the first item …

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Everstate: Setting the stage (I)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Sun, 07 Apr 2019 08:25:25 +0000

Everstate is an ideal-type for our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state. In the case of this specific scenario-building, we are setting the stage for Everstate, by attributing values to key influencing variable to be able to develop the scenarios. The explanations regarding the methodology used to develop the narrative is explained in …

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How to Read a Large Amount of Information and Fight against Fake News

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Wed, 03 Apr 2019 08:20:50 +0000

The incredible and growing amount of information available nowadays presents us with specific challenges we need to overcome. Meanwhile, the rediscovery of propaganda and the power of rumours spread on social networks, now labelled “fake news”, only make more acute the need to find our way through the mass of information available. This is even …

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Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Early Warning: Definition and Practice

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 04 Mar 2019 08:00:21 +0000

(Rewritten and revised edition) Horizon scanning and monitoring for early warning are part of the family of activities used to foresee the future, anticipate uncertainty and manage risks. Their practice is crucial for successful strategic foresight and warning, risk management, futurism or any anticipatory activity. While monitoring is a generic and common term used for …

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