timing Archives - The Red Team Analysis Society

Time in Strategic Foresight and Risk Management

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Wed, 30 Jan 2019 09:35:01 +0000

From the corporate world to governments, we seek to escape uncertainty and surprises. This is crucial to survive and thrive. It is also necessary for the protection from threats, dangers and risks. As a whole and generally, our abilities – if not willingness – to identify threats has improved with experience and practice. Notably, we became relatively efficient in …

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Assessing End of Year Predictions: How Did they Fare? (2)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 18:27:50 +0000

The evaluation of our 2012 predictions’ sample underlines notably a widespread conventional view of national security, novel issues being ignored; a relative inability to assess timing whilst our understanding of issues fares relatively well; the existence of major biases, notably regarding China, Russia, and the U.S; the difficulty of prediction for novel issues and old issues in new context.

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An Experiment in Assessing End of Year Predictions (1)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 16:40:56 +0000

This post will present the experiment – assessing a sample of open source predictions for the year 2012 – address the methodological problems encountered while creating the evaluation itself, and underline the lessons learned. The second part (forthcoming) will discuss results.

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2218 – 2223 EVT – From Grievances to Political Mobilisation (Mamominarch)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 07:54:36 +0000

Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement the Mamominarch programme of drastic reduction of state spending over five years through devolution, …

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2218 – 2223 EVT – Complex Catastrophes (Mamominarch)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 08:00:56 +0000

Any type of similar natural events and catastrophes can be imagined to strike countries, from pandemic to floods, snowstorms, cyclones, fire, etc. Last episode’s summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, …

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2218 EVT – Tragic events

Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond) — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 05:58:42 +0000

Tragic events strike Everstate. We witness tornadoes and drought, war in the Middle East and even a major industrial accident, while a new episode of financial crisis starts. These are instances of the various conditions presiding to Everstate's destiny, considering what has been done, or not, globally, regionally and within Everstate.

The same set of events should be used to stress test each scenario. The logic of the scenario will however comes first, assuming it impacts the plausibility of the event. In that case, ....