trend Archives - The Red Team Analysis Society https://redanalysis.org/tag/trend/ Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Geopolitics ･ Scenarios Fri, 01 Oct 2021 18:02:55 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://redanalysis.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/cropped-RTAS-Logo-Vectorise-Disque-Blanc-PNG-1000-x-1000-32x32.png trend Archives - The Red Team Analysis Society https://redanalysis.org/tag/trend/ 32 32 128105080 Modeling for Dynamic Risks and Uncertainties (1) : Mapping Risk and Uncertainty https://redanalysis.org/2018/11/05/mapping-risk-and-uncertainty-1/ Mon, 05 Nov 2018 09:47:33 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=644 (This article is a fully updated version of the original article published in November 2011 under the title “Creating a Foresight and Warning Model: Mapping a Dynamic Network (I)”). Mapping risk and uncertainty is the second step of a proper process to correctly anticipate and manage risks and uncertainties.  This stage starts with building a model, which, once completed, will describe and explain the issue or question at hand, while allowing for anticipation or foresight. In other words, with the end of the first step, you have selected a risk, an uncertainty, or a series of risks and uncertainties, or an issue of concern, with its proper time frame and scope, for example, what are the risks and uncertainties to …

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]]> 644 Modeling for Dynamic Risks and Uncertainties (2) : Mapping a Dynamic Network https://redanalysis.org/2011/11/13/creating-the-model-from-map-to-dynamic-network-part-2/ Sun, 13 Nov 2011 08:45:37 +0000 http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=380 Go back to Part 1

Actually, any SF&W model as it primarily deals with time should be a dynamic network. How can we expect obtaining any potential outline for the future if our model for understanding is static?

Our map thus aims at representing the potential dynamics of polities. We shall notably use Ertman’s work on past state-building, but making it adaptable to present and future conditions.

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