No57 – 19 July 2012
No57 – 19 July 2012
No56 – 13 July 2012 – Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets)
As we are testing new ways to gather weak signals, and as the results obtained yesterday were not satisfying, this week, exceptionally, The Weekly is published on Friday. It will resume being published on Thursdays next week. Over the summer, most of the time, the information gathered will be raw, i.e. not edited, thus don’t hesitate to dig deep into the various sections to find weak signals and signals seeing their strength evolving.
No55 – 5 July 2012 – Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets)
Attrition warfare: This week is about positioning, reinforcing existing stances and trends, in a quiet but strong way, with, as result, a polarisation across issues, nothing obvious, flamboyant, easy to detect, but polarisation all the same…. meanwhile some mind-forged manacles are starting to open, but isn’t it part of an escalation process?
Read the whole latest edition directly here (not very convenient on mobiles and some tablets):
The Deep-Sea Resources Sigils is part of The Sigils, a series of daily papers scanning the horizon for weak signals related to various issues relevant to the security of societies, polities, nations and citizens. They use Paper.Li as curation platform.
Why deep-sea resources must be monitored and what is at stake can be found in the corresponding Sigils Brief.
The Deep-Sea Resources Sigils can be read below or by clicking on the title to access the Paper.li platform (best for mobiles and tablets).
The Coal Sigils, is the first of The Sigils dedicated to energy security, a series of daily papers scanning the horizon for weak signals related to various issues relevant to the security of societies, polities, nations and citizens. They use Paper.Li as curation platform.
According to a new release by the IEA,
“As of March 2012, approximately 40% of the world’s electricity needs were provided by coal. Yes, coal is the second source of primary energy after oil.”
Furthermore, considering the progressive or rapid abandonment of nuclear energy, as in Germany or in Japan, which shut off its last reactor on 5 May 2012, coal could very well see an increase in demand, at least for a few years, until alternative energy mix are implemented.
Besides electricity, coal is also used in steel and aluminium production, in the manufacture of cement, increasingly to produce transport fuels from liquefied or gasified coal (Survey of Energy Resources, Nov 2010, p.3).
The use of coal varies according to regions, with a demand increase forecast in Asia, and, on the contrary, a diminution in the West (without considering the nuclear free policies impact).
The environmental and health impacts of coal mining, processing and usage (World Coal Association, 2005, 2012) make it a highly questionable source of energy, although many efforts are made to struggle against them.
Last but not least, data regarding proved reserves seem to be controversial, which could create surprise,* while the unequal distribution of coal exports (90% originate from six countries: Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa, Colombia, and the United States) create the potential for tension (IEA 2012).
All those points deserve monitoring if we are to avoid surprise and develop proper foresight in energy security.
The Coal Sigils can be read below or by clicking on the title to access the Paper.li platform (best for mobiles and tablets).
*Recent surveys tend to emphasise plentiful reserves. However, the November 2010 Survey of Energy Resources, by the World Energy Council details the difficulties surrounding the gathering of data and related assessments, pp.1-3. Other estimates on potential Peak Coal can be found, among others in Energy Watch Group, Coal: resources and future production, 2007; Kavalov, B. and S. D. Peteves, The Future of Coal, Institute for Energy (IFE), prepared for European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2007. Slides; Vernon, Chris Coal – The Roundup, The Oil Drum Europe, 2007; Li, Minqi, Peak Coal and China, The Oil Drum, July 4, 2011. See also, Rutledge, David, “Estimating Long-Term World Coal Production with Logit and Probit Transforms,” International Journal of Coal Geology, Jan 2011; US National Academy of Sciences, Coal – Report in Brief, 2007.
Cusick, Daniel and ClimateWire, “Asian Demand Forecasts Boom for Coal,” Scientific American, May 14, 2012.
IEA, FAQs: Coal, 2012
The Associated Press, “Japan shuts off nuclear power as thousands celebrate – Island nation is without electricity from nuclear power for first time in four decades,” May 5, 2012 – CBC News.
World Coal Association, The coal resource a comprehensive overview of coal, 2005
World Coal Association, Coal – Energy for Sustainable Development, 2012.
Charbon après lavage by By Apphim (Charbon) [GFDL or CC-BY-SA-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.0], via Wikimedia Commons.
Shan sigil by Vincent Ramos (Dessin personnel manuscrit d’un caractère chinois dans une graphie ancienne. Publié sous licence <a href=”/wiki/GFDL” title=”GFDL”>GFDL</a>. Cette image est aussi présente dans mon site web, sous copyright).
No42 - 5 April 2012 Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets)
Higher levels of tension, worst impacts, more dangerous dynamics – Watch out at least for: Italy, Greece, Spain (protests or more?); EU, US and the world (global systemic crisis); Iran, US, EU, Israel; very bad news on climate change; food sec (China, India); Anonymous.