(Credit Image: ESO/B. Tafreshi – twanight.org)
The Red (Team) Analysis Society helps you embracing the future and uncertainty.
We live today in a highly volatile world. Uncertainties for tomorrow abound. The world we knew is already gone. Yet, the future emerges only slowly. It is the theatre of tensions. Changes appear to be very quick, yet sometimes they surprise us with a pace that is not so fast. How can we make sense of this emerging world? How can we take decisions for the future? How can we mitigate the risks we face?
With us you find answers to these questions.
Our philosophy is to help you meet the need for foresight.
Sense-making for Strategic Foresight and Warning and Risk Management
- Special COVID-19
- Latest articles
- Global Issues addressed in our research articles and reports
- Methodology to foresee and warn
Understand, Monitor, Foresee and Plan Ahead
to Survive and Reconstruct
- Covid-19 – Scenarios – Making Sense of Antiviral TreatmentThe world is now struggling to know how to face the COVID-19 pandemic. We want to know how long the pandemic will last. Actually, what we want to know is when the pandemic will end and when life will be able to resume normally. As we explained in the opening article for this series, to […]
- The COVID-19 Pandemic – Surviving and ReconstructingThe COVID-19 pandemic is now a global fact. It still involves many uncertainties. At present and in the near future, we need to handle the ongoing pandemic as a global catastrophic crisis with complex cascading impacts. We also need to start thinking about reconstruction. We are here concerned with reconstruction that will allow polities to […]
- COVID-19 – Worst Case Baseline ScenariosOn 11 March Chancellor Merkel warned that the SARS-CoV-2 – the virus for the COVID-19 – could infect between 60 and 70% of Germany’s population (DW, “Coronavirus: Germany’s Angela Merkel urges ‘solidarity and reason‘”, 11 March 2020). She was accused to spread panic (Ibid.). Chancellor Merkel’s point was to highlight the very real danger Germans […]
- Why the COVID-19 is NOT a Black Swan EventAs the COVID-19 spreads throughout the world, its cascading and multiple impacts deepen. As a result, fear spreads. Meanwhile, finance and business firms now started promoting the idea that the COVID-19 epidemic was a “black swan event”. For example, Goldman Sachs, in its Top of Mind, issue 86 (February 28, 2020) featured an article titled […]
- The Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Epidemic – No return to the pastOn 11 March, the WHO characterised the COVID-19 as a pandemic. The probability to see the WHO, finally, accepting the label had been rising everyday. Indeed, we have witnessed the proliferation of clusters and outbreaks globally, that led to the emergence of multiple epidemic centres. Since we first published this article, the pandemic intensified. On […]
- COVID-19: Anticipation, Timing and Influence – From Mobility Restriction to Medicine ShortageScenarios regarding the future of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in China and globally vary wildly (David Cyranoski, “When will the coronavirus outbreak peak?“, Nature, 18 February 2020). The estimates go from the outbreak peaking at the end of February 2020 to months away with millions infected (Ibid.). The WHO Director-General stressed the necessity to remain […]
- The Coronavirus COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak is Not Only about a New VirusThe coronavirus epidemic is “a very grave threat” because “Viruses can have more powerful consequences than any terrorist action”. This is what the WHO Director stressed as an international meeting of 400 scientists and other experts convened in Geneva (Sarah Boseley, “Coronavirus should be seen as ‘public enemy number one’, says WHO“, The Guardian, 11 […]
- The New Coronavirus COVID-19 Mystery – Fact-CheckingThe new Coronavirus 2019-nCoV epidemic outbreak is a mystery. Indeed, since it became a concern in China at the end of December 2019 and in the early days of January 2020 (WHO timeline), the various actors and authorities involved have been sending contradictory signals regarding the outbreak. This is perplexing, and all the more so […]
- Resources to monitor the Coronavirus COVID-19 PandemicThe new Coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic outbreak became a pandemic, with still much uncertainty. Thus, we must continue to closely monitor it, using the best possible ressources available. All actors should also develop scenarios to make sure they are ready across all possible futures. Here, you will find a list of reliable sources to monitor the […]
Our analysis of the coronavirus/
Covid-19 pandemic is all available for free.
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Our new Course: Scenario-Building for Political and Geopolitical Risks is online!
Our latest articles
- The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 26 March 2020(Credit Image: ESO/P. Horálek) As the Covid-19 spreads, it also invades all thoughts and permeates most issues and actions. As a result, we kept the section on the COVID-19 pandemic for articles truly specific to the pandemic, such as confinement or possible second wave of outbreak, as well as for the struggle against related rumours. […]
- What is Political Risk?Political risk is an idea many actors very often use. But what does political risk mean? What does political risk address? With the video below, we explain what is political risk. Meanwhile, we experiment with a new medium. We also test an approach through brief explanations of fundamental concepts and ideas. Let us know what […]
- Expressing and Understanding Estimative LanguageWhen dealing with the future, we use a language that includes specific notions such as the expression of probability and of impacts. In terms of probability, for example, we use words such as “likely” and for impacts terms such as “severe”. Furthermore, to be truly complete, we should add a confidence judgement. As explained by […]
- The Global Wildfire (1)(Credit Image: Pierre Markuse, CC BY 2.0) The global wildfire is engulfing the world. Throughout 2019, immense swaths of Australia, California, Alaska, Russia, central Africa, and the Amazon basin, were part of this immense bonfire. This conflagration took place after the historic fire seasons of 2018, 2017, 2016… (David Wallace Wells, The Uninhabitable Earth, Life […]
- Artificial Intelligence, climate change and the U.S militaryAI, AI Everywhere The Artificial Intelligence field (AI) is creating a continuity that encompasses climate change science and the preparedness of the U.S. military to climate risks. This continuity appears through the central role of AI in two apparently disconnected foresight civilian and military uses. AI and climate science Climate Central published in Nature a […]
- Are your Strategic Foresight Scenarios Valid? Test and Check List in 6 pointsScenario building, also known as scenario analysis, is a crucial methodology to anticipate and prepare for the future. This is a method used from risk management to strategic foresight through all anticipatory methodology. The higher the uncertainty, the more important it is to be able to mitigate risks to develop winning responses. However, it is […]
- How to Analyse Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios and WarThis article focuses on scenarios for war. It explains first why scenarios need to be mutually exclusive. Then it provides logical templates for building scenarios dealing with war. Finally it offers an updated bibliography of scenarios for Syria over time. Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyse Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1) Methodology to […]
- The U.S. Army versus a Warming PlanetThe strange case of the disappearing report In August 2019, the Centre for Climate and Security published an article about a recent publication by the U.S Army War College. The document, entitled “Implications of Climate change for the U.S Army”, however, cannot be found anymore on the “publications” page of the U.S Army War College. […]
- U.S. National Security Commission for Artificial Intelligence Interim report – Signal
Credit Image: Henri Kissinger, 5 Nov 19 NSCAI Conference, @MignonClyburn
The National Security Commission for Artificial Intelligence Interim report, published on 4 November 2019, is a must read for anyone interested in international relations, geopolitics, national and international security. All those concerned must consider the U.S. position, strategic foresight, and now AI as an element of power. Read more…
We gathered a couple of tips to help you speed reading and make sure what you read is not fake news (our contribution to fight against fake news): How to Read a Large Amount of Information and Fight against Fake News.
Browse further all our featured articles
Our research articles and reports focus on a large range of issues, risks and uncertainties shaping our political and geopolitical future.
Global Thematic Issues
Main Current Focus
Besides researching and writing articles, providing training and consulting services, we also deliver keynote speeches, including for top-level executives.
Other issues on the watch
You can also read our articles according to geographical location.
As time goes by, the unfolding future becomes the present then the past.
Articles and reports progressively build an analytical trove to make sense of the world, to understand the dynamics at work out of which the future emerges.
Articles and reports are essential elements for the state of the art/literature review of the methodology of strategic foresight and warning and risk management.
How to Foresee and Warn – Methodology
The methodological aspects of strategic foresight and warning, risk management, or horizon scanning are addressed in a large collection of in-depth articles.
The articles of this section are aimed at practitioners, as well as students, who want to understand better how anticipation is done, from scanning the horizon to scenario-building through indicators and delivery to decision-makers.
All the articles address the various challenges that we can face at each step of the strategic foresight and warning process for political and geopolitical risks and uncertainties: analyse, scan and monitor, evaluate, and deliver.
The largest part of our research articles are now premium content. Usually a summary, abstract, the introduction, or the first lines of the premium access articles remain free, so you can decide if you want to read or not the premium articles.
We nonetheless strive to still provide some of our most fundamental articles and research as open access (free for readers) publications. Give it a try and start reading our open access articles.
Monitoring and Scanning (open access – without analysis)
Our scanning and monitoring is grounded in years of practice and in-depth knowledge and experience of research for political and geopolitical issues. The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly scans the horizon every week for weak – and less weak – signals regarding all political and geopolitical risks and uncertainties, as well as national and global changes and instability, using crowdsourcing.
The Sigils are a series of daily, raw (non edited) scans. Each focuses on a specific issue and are provided through the platform Paper.Li.
The Horizon Scanning Board provides selected open source intelligence – OSINT – signals that are particularly interesting, among all those signals we identify, analyse and use. A collection of signals are provided here as a demonstration sample only.
A short FAQ
Strategic Foresight is a process and a methodology of analysis. It seeks to anticipate the future, and to reduce the potential for surprise in an actionable way. It is crucial for preparedness.
Strategic Foresight and Warning is an organized and systematic process to reduce uncertainty regarding the future that aims at allowing policy-makers and decision-makers to take decisions with sufficient lead time to see those decisions implemented at best.
It is now very similar to risk management.
SF&W analysis is an analysis that will use all valid methodologies to develop an understanding, grounded in reality, of the future, useful to decision-makers and policy-makers for carrying out their mission. The objective is to avoid surprise, and thus to be prepared.
Foresight analysis is an analysis that seeks to anticipate the future. Stricto sensu, foresight is used for issues that are technical, for R&D, and for technical innovation. It is a part of the larger strategic foresight family of anticipatory activities.
Forecasting refers to the use of quantitative techniques, notably statistics, to anticipate the future.
Foresight is crucial to avoid surprises, as these may have catastrophic impacts on objectives. Foresight allows us to anticipate threats and dangers. As a result we can take timely adequate actions to mitigate the impact of these dangers. Foresight is the only tool that allows for preparedness, especially when uncertainty abounds. Foresight, finally, allows turning uncertainty and the future into opportunities. Foresight is crucial for survival and for success.
Risk management is the management of “The effect of uncertainty on objectives”, according to the definition of the International Standard Organisation (ISO 31000:2018). It notably includes the steps of contextualising the risk, assessing the risk and treating the risk.
Horizon scanning is the same as strategic foresight, and similar to risk management. It is a process to reduce uncertainty regarding the future for decision-makers and policy-makers. It is a label that is especially used in the U.K., as well as in Singapore.
Red team analysis, red teaming or red teaming activity was used initially in the U.S. Army to simulate the activity of opponents in war-gaming and strategic simulations
By extension, Red Team Analysis aims at promoting a strategic foresight analysis grounded in science that struggles against our many cognitive, normative and emotional biases through various tools and methodologies, including not being limited by “politically correct” approaches.
Interestingly in the Soviet Union, during the Cold War, similar activities were called Blue or Green Team activity.
Political risks are all events that are linked to the political system of a country and may impact the objectives of an actor notably through uncertainty and change.
Most consultancy and experts take a narrow approach to political risks and focus exclusively on elections, political parties, elite politics and legal system. This is a very partial approach as much is missed, thus increasing the risks for the actors. Check our video explaining in detail what is political risk.
Geopolitical risks is a term used to cover all risks related to the impact of international politics and international relations on the objectives of actors, notably through change and uncertainty. For example, we have risks related to interstate wars, diplomatic raws, sanctions, as well as competition for international influence, competition for power among international actors. More broadly, from the point of view of an actor, every event external to the society (country) of this actor can be seen as potentially generating a “geopolitical” or external risk. Global risks, such as those linked to pandemic and epidemic, energy security, water security, climate change etc. can be seen as having geopolitical dimensions.
Some customers and references
We strive to build a relationship of trust with every client. We do not publicize our work for our clients. We do not mention the name of our private clients, nor of our public clients when the work is confidential. Here are some of customers and references we can mention.
More About Us…
The Red (Team) Analysis Society, it is also work “behind-the-scenes” in fora, workshops, conferences and networks.
Credit Featured images:
Top Image: ESO/B. Tafreshi – twanight.org
Consulting Image: ALMA antennas under the Milky Way, ESO/José Francisco Salgado (josefrancisco.org)
Sense-making (Think Tank) Image: TRAPPIST–South robotic telescope, ESO’s La Silla Observatory – ESO/E.Jehin.