(Credit Image: ESO/B. Tafreshi – twanight.org)

The Red (Team) Analysis Society helps you embracing the future and uncertainty.

We live today in a highly volatile world. Uncertainties for tomorrow abound. The world we knew is already gone. Yet, the future emerges only slowly. It is the theatre of tensions. Changes appear to be very quick, yet sometimes they surprise us with a pace that is not so fast. How can we make sense of this emerging world? How can we take decisions for the future? How can we mitigate the risks we face?

With us you find answers to these questions.

Our philosophy is to help you meet the need for foresight.

Sense-making for Strategic Foresight and Warning and Risk Management

  1. Special COVID-19
  2. Latest articles
  3. Global Issues addressed in our research articles and reports
  4. Methodology to foresee and warn
  5. Scans
  6. FAQ

COVID-19 Pandemic

Understand, Monitor, Foresee and Plan Ahead

to Survive and Reconstruct

Access the COVID-19 Section for a list of all articles and resources

  • The Hidden Origin of the COVID-19 and the Second Wave
    In this article we explore the way the COVID-19 pandemic was born and, hidden, spread globally. Learning from this very early process, we deduce initial key elements and indicators to monitor and control the COVID-19 second wave and recurrent ones. With this series of articles we are looking for ways to better estimate the likelihood […]
  • The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 21 May 2020
    This is the 21 May 2020 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks (open access) Editorial: This week our main signals highlight notably and among many indications: a possible mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 (China new cases); domestic and international political and security impacts of the COVID-19 which are increasingly apparent; and an […]
  • COVID-19 and Food Insecurity Early Warning
    This brief article is a first early warning about food insecurity resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. The danger is rising and deserves further and more in-depth analysis and monitoring. As the COVID-19 pandemic developed, we immediately added food insecurity on our watch list of issues to monitor (see our COVID-19 section). To date, mid-May 2020, […]
  • The U.S.-China COVID-19 Competition (2): America and Chimerica in Crisis
    The COVID-19 pandemic is hammering the United States. Thus, it is pummeling the deep U.S.-China economic interdependency, also known as “Chimerica” (Jean-Michel Valantin, “The US-China Covid-19 Competition (1)”, The Red (Team) Analysis, April 17, 2020). (Traduction française automatique par intelligence artificielle.) The mammoth impact of the pandemic on the U.S. results from the shutting down […]
  • Models for the COVID-19 Second Wave
    Europe, the Middle East, Oceania, part of South Asia and the U.S. progressively exit the COVID-19 lockdowns and relax the most severe social distancing measures. In the meantime, China, Singapore and South Korea, the countries that were hit first and succeeded in controlling the first wave, appear to face different dynamics after easing of anti-COVID-19 […]
  • The Strange Case of Sweden in the COVID-19 Pandemic
    Many countries hit by the pandemic are now exiting or about to exit the period of most stringent isolation measures. Indeed, they estimate they succeeded in controlling contagion. Meanwhile, they avoided the dreaded break down of their health-care system, which could have taken place if hospitals had been overwhelmed. In Europe, one country stands apart, […]

Our analysis of the coronavirus/
Covid-19 pandemic is all available for free.

Please consider becoming a member of the Red (Team) Analysis Society to support independent and in-depth analysis

Or donate and contribute to fund analysis for the war against COVID-19

Our new Course: Scenario-Building for Political and Geopolitical Risks is online!

Check it out!

Our latest articles

  • The Hidden Origin of the COVID-19 and the Second Wave
    In this article we explore the way the COVID-19 pandemic was born and, hidden, spread globally. Learning from this very early process, we deduce initial key elements and indicators to monitor and control the COVID-19 second wave and recurrent ones. With this series of articles we are looking for ways to better estimate the likelihood […]
  • What is Political Risk?
    Political risk is an idea many actors very often use. But what does political risk mean? What does political risk address? With the video below, we explain what is political risk. Meanwhile, we experiment with a new medium. We also test an approach through brief explanations of fundamental concepts and ideas. Let us know what […]
  • Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language
    When dealing with the future, we use a language that includes specific notions such as the expression of probability and of impacts. In terms of probability, for example, we use words such as “likely” and for impacts terms such as “severe”. Furthermore, to be truly complete, we should add a confidence judgement. As explained by […]
  • The Global Wildfire (1)
    (Credit Image: Pierre Markuse, CC BY 2.0) The global wildfire is engulfing the world. Throughout 2019, immense swaths of Australia, California, Alaska, Russia, central Africa, and the Amazon basin, were part of this immense bonfire. This conflagration took place after the historic fire seasons of 2018, 2017, 2016… (David Wallace Wells, The Uninhabitable Earth, Life […]
  • Artificial Intelligence, climate change and the U.S military
    AI, AI Everywhere The Artificial Intelligence field (AI) is creating a continuity that encompasses climate change science and the preparedness of the U.S. military to climate risks. This continuity appears through the central role of AI in two apparently disconnected foresight civilian and military uses. AI and climate science Climate Central published in Nature a […]
  • Are your Strategic Foresight Scenarios Valid? Test and Check List in 6 points
    Scenario building, also known as scenario analysis, is a crucial methodology to anticipate and prepare for the future. This is a method used from risk management to strategic foresight through all anticipatory methodology. The higher the uncertainty, the more important it is to be able to mitigate risks to develop winning responses. However, it is […]

We gathered a couple of tips to help you speed reading and make sure what you read is not fake news (our contribution to fight against fake news): How to Read a Large Amount of Information and Fight against Fake News.

Browse further all our featured articles

Global Issues

Our research articles and reports focus on a large range of issues, risks and uncertainties shaping our political and geopolitical future.

Global Thematic Issues

Main Current Focus

Besides researching and writing articles, providing training and consulting services, we also deliver keynote speeches, including for top-level executives.

Other issues on the watch

Geographical Regions

You can also read our articles according to geographical location.

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As time goes by, the unfolding future becomes the present then the past.

Articles and reports progressively build an analytical trove to make sense of the world, to understand the dynamics at work out of which the future emerges.

Articles and reports are essential elements for the state of the art/literature review of the methodology of strategic foresight and warning and risk management.

How to Foresee and Warn – Methodology

The methodological aspects of strategic foresight and warning, risk management, or horizon scanning are addressed in a large collection of in-depth articles.

Practically develop and enhance, step by step, your anticipatory analytical skills to tackle complex geopolitical, national and global security and political issues. Check our online course: From process to analytical modeling.

The articles of this section are aimed at practitioners, as well as students, who want to understand better how anticipation is done, from scanning the horizon to scenario-building through indicators and delivery to decision-makers.

All the articles address the various challenges that we can face at each step of the strategic foresight and warning process for political and geopolitical risks and uncertainties: analyse, scan and monitor, evaluate, and deliver.

The largest part of our research articles are now premium content. Usually a summary, abstract, the introduction, or the first lines of the premium access articles remain free, so you can decide if you want to read or not the premium articles.

We nonetheless strive to still provide some of our most fundamental articles and research as open access (free for readers) publications. Give it a try and start reading our open access articles.

Monitoring and Scanning (open access – without analysis)

Our scanning and monitoring is grounded in years of practice and in-depth knowledge and experience of research for political and geopolitical issues. The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly scans the horizon every week for weak – and less weak – signals regarding all political and geopolitical risks and uncertainties, as well as national and global changes and instability, using crowdsourcing. 

The Sigils are a series of daily, raw (non edited) scans. Each focuses on a specific issue and are provided through the platform Paper.Li.

The Horizon Scanning Board provides selected open source intelligence – OSINT – signals that are particularly interesting, among all those signals we identify, analyse and use. A collection of signals are provided here as a demonstration sample only.

A short FAQ

What is strategic foresight?

Strategic Foresight is a process and a methodology of analysis. It seeks to anticipate the future, and to reduce the potential for surprise in an actionable way. It is crucial for preparedness.

What is the process of strategic foresight?

Strategic Foresight and Warning is an organized and systematic process to reduce uncertainty regarding the future that aims at allowing policy-makers and decision-makers to take decisions with sufficient lead time to see those decisions implemented at best.
It is now very similar to risk management.

What is strategic foresight analysis?

SF&W analysis is an analysis that will use all valid methodologies to develop an understanding, grounded in reality, of the future, useful to decision-makers and policy-makers for carrying out their mission. The objective is to avoid surprise, and thus to be prepared.

What is foresight analysis?

Foresight analysis is an analysis that seeks to anticipate the future. Stricto sensu, foresight is used for issues that are technical, for R&D, and for technical innovation. It is a part of the larger strategic foresight family of anticipatory activities.

What is forecasting?

Forecasting refers to the use of quantitative techniques, notably statistics, to anticipate the future.

Why is foresight important?

Foresight is crucial to avoid surprises, as these may have catastrophic impacts on objectives. Foresight allows us to anticipate threats and dangers. As a result we can take timely adequate actions to mitigate the impact of these dangers. Foresight is the only tool that allows for preparedness, especially when uncertainty abounds. Foresight, finally, allows turning uncertainty and the future into opportunities. Foresight is crucial for survival and for success.

What is risk management?

Risk management is the management of “The effect of uncertainty on objectives”, according to the definition of the International Standard Organisation (ISO 31000:2018). It notably includes the steps of contextualising the risk, assessing the risk and treating the risk.

What is horizon scanning?

Horizon scanning is the same as strategic foresight, and similar to risk management. It is a process to reduce uncertainty regarding the future for decision-makers and policy-makers. It is a label that is especially used in the U.K., as well as in Singapore.

What is red team analysis?

Red team analysis, red teaming or red teaming activity was used initially in the U.S. Army to simulate the activity of opponents in war-gaming and strategic simulations
By extension, Red Team Analysis aims at promoting a strategic foresight analysis grounded in science that struggles against our many cognitive, normative and emotional biases through various tools and methodologies, including not being limited by “politically correct” approaches.
Interestingly in the Soviet Union, during the Cold War, similar activities were called Blue or Green Team activity.

What is political risk?

Political risks are all events that are linked to the political system of a country and may impact the objectives of an actor notably through uncertainty and change.
Most consultancy and experts take a narrow approach to political risks and focus exclusively on elections, political parties, elite politics and legal system. This is a very partial approach as much is missed, thus increasing the risks for the actors. Check our video explaining in detail what is political risk.

What is geopolitical risk?

Geopolitical risks is a term used to cover all risks related to the impact of international politics and international relations on the objectives of actors, notably through change and uncertainty. For example, we have risks related to interstate wars, diplomatic raws, sanctions, as well as competition for international influence, competition for power among international actors. More broadly, from the point of view of an actor, every event external to the society (country) of this actor can be seen as potentially generating a “geopolitical” or external risk. Global risks, such as those linked to pandemic and epidemic, energy security, water security, climate change etc. can be seen as having geopolitical dimensions.

Some customers and references

We strive to build a relationship of trust with every client. We do not publicize our work for our clients. We do not mention the name of our private clients, nor of our public clients when the work is confidential. Here are some of customers and references we can mention.

More About Us…

The Red (Team) Analysis Society, it is also work “behind-the-scenes” in fora, workshops, conferences and networks.

Read more about us, about our team and network of partners, and about “behind-the-scenes” work and detailed public references here.

Credit Featured images:

Top Image: ESO/B. Tafreshi – twanight.org
Consulting Image: ALMA antennas under the Milky Way, ESO/José Francisco Salgado (josefrancisco.org)
Sense-making (Think Tank) Image: TRAPPIST–South robotic telescope, ESO’s La Silla Observatory – ESO/E.Jehin.