(Credit Image: ESO/B. Tafreshi – twanight.org)

The Red Team Analysis Society helps you embracing the future and uncertainty.

We live today in a highly volatile world. Uncertainties for tomorrow abound. The world we knew is already gone. Yet, the future emerges only slowly. It is the theatre of tensions. Changes appear to be very quick, yet sometimes they surprise us with a pace that is not so fast. How can we make sense of this emerging world? How can we take decisions for the future? How can we mitigate the risks we face?

With us you find answers to these questions.

Our philosophy is to help you meet the need for foresight.

Sense-making for Strategic Foresight and Warning and Risk Management

  1. Special COVID-19
  2. Latest articles
  3. Global Issues addressed in our research articles and reports
  4. Methodology to foresee and warn
  5. Scans
  6. FAQ

COVID-19 Pandemic

Understand, Monitor, Foresee and Plan Ahead

to Survive and Reconstruct

Access the COVID-19 Section for a list of all articles and resources

  • China, the “Health Silk Road” of Vaccines, and Security
    Beyond the proliferation of the Chinese vaccine Enters Sinopharm On 14 January, Hungary’s government signed an agreement with the giant company Sinopharm in order to purchase millions of doses of the Chinese CoronaVac (CCV) (“In EU first, Sinopharm Coronavirus vaccine approved by Hungary”, Nikkei Asia, 31 January, 2021). One week before, it had made a […]
  • COVID-19 Vaccinations, Hope or Mirage?
    (Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Photo: torstensimon) The world has started a race for immunisation against the COVID-19. Vaccines are now perceived as the universal panacea, the miracle that will save us all from the pandemic. We shall, finally, be able to find back our old life. Are we right to hope? Or are we likely to […]
  • How China Could Win the War against the Covid-19 Pandemic
    (Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) As 2021 starts, Europe struggles again against a COVID-19 new wave and the spread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. Japan strengthens its state of emergency against the COVID-19. The U.S. reports 4.462 deaths on 12 January 2021, i.e. almost precisely 1,5 time 9/11. Meanwhile, China also fights a rise in new symptomatic […]
  • Is the COVID-19 Second Wave coming to China?
    The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is sweeping through the world. It reached first the U.S., Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. By mid-November 2020 it started being visible in Eastern Asia (e.g. Reuters Covid-19 Global Tracker: World and Asia and the Middle East). By the end of November 2020, South Korea and […]
  • France and 3 Scenarios for the COVID-19 Second Wave
    Design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Eleven months into the COVID-19 pandemic the second wave spreads. More than 50 million people were contaminated globally by 9 November 2020 (COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University). More than 1.25 million people had died by then (ibid.). On 10 November, Europe crossed […]
  • Arctic China: Towards New Oil Wars in a Warming Arctic?
    Design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli The new geopolitics of the Arctic In the Arctic, the climate and the “New U.S./Russia/China Cold war” are both warming at a very rapid pace (Jean-Michel Valantin, “Towards a US-China War? (1) and (2): Military Tensions in the Arctic”, The Red (Team) Analysis Society, September 16, 2019). Indeed, since 2016, Russia is […]

Our analysis of the coronavirus/
Covid-19 pandemic is all available for free.

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Our new Course: Scenario-Building for Political and Geopolitical Risks is online!

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Our latest articles

  • The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 4 March 2021
    This is the 4 March 2021 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Editorial: When a strategist and historian as smart and as famous as Professor Edward Luttwak writes on China, his piece may only be selected as featured article. […]
  • Communication of Strategic Foresight and Early Warning
    A warning does not exist if it is not delivered. This is a key lesson highlighted by the famous expert in warning Cynthia Grabo, who worked as an intelligence analyst for the U.S. government from 1942 to 1980 (Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, Editor’s Preface). Similarly, a foresight product such as scenarios, for example, […]
  • China, the “Health Silk Road” of Vaccines, and Security
    Beyond the proliferation of the Chinese vaccine Enters Sinopharm On 14 January, Hungary’s government signed an agreement with the giant company Sinopharm in order to purchase millions of doses of the Chinese CoronaVac (CCV) (“In EU first, Sinopharm Coronavirus vaccine approved by Hungary”, Nikkei Asia, 31 January, 2021). One week before, it had made a […]
  • Are your Strategic Foresight Scenarios Valid?
    Scenario building, also known as scenario analysis, is a crucial methodology to anticipate and prepare for the future. This is a method used from risk management to strategic foresight through early warning systems. More broadly, it is a key tool for all anticipation that needs to be actionable. The higher the uncertainty, the more important […]
  • COVID-19 Vaccinations, Hope or Mirage?
    (Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Photo: torstensimon) The world has started a race for immunisation against the COVID-19. Vaccines are now perceived as the universal panacea, the miracle that will save us all from the pandemic. We shall, finally, be able to find back our old life. Are we right to hope? Or are we likely to […]
  • Is the West Losing the Warming Arctic?
    Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli The militarization of the Arctic – So what? Over the last few years, NATO, the U.S. and Scandinavian militaries have been multiplying national and regional manoeuvres in the Arctic. This is especially true in Norway and the Barents Sea, very close to the Norwegian and Russian land, air and sea frontiers. […]
  • Adapting to the Burning World?
    Design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli A Bright and Burning Future Over the last years, each summer, tsunamis of fire surge in North America, Russia, Africa, South Asia, and Europe. Each year, they break former records and spread wider, while becoming much more intense. These fires define the parts of the world that are going to become a […]
  • What is an Issue in terms of Strategic Foresight & Warning and Horizon Scanning?
    An issue, in terms of warning and by extension SF&W, is “a situation, an objective, an opportunity, a danger, a threat or a risk, which is specific and defined.” (Grabo, 2004) For example, SF&W issues can be interstate and civil wars, fragile states, instability, energy security, oil, economic crisis, global water security, epidemics and pandemics such […]
  • Global Apocalypse Now, the California Way
    Design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Facing Apocalypse The Apocalypse literally means “the Book of Revelation”. From a theological as well as heuristic point of view, it means that the Apocalypse is the moment in history when entire societies are forced to lift the veils of illusions. Doing so, the revelation of the real state of things emerges, […]

We gathered a couple of tips to help you speed reading and make sure what you read is not fake news (our contribution to fight against fake news): How to Read a Large Amount of Information and Fight against Fake News.

Browse further all our featured articles

Global Issues

Our research articles and reports focus on a large range of issues, risks and uncertainties shaping our political and geopolitical future.

Global Thematic Issues

Main Current Focus

Besides researching and writing articles, providing training and consulting services, we also deliver keynote speeches, including for top-level executives.

Other issues on the watch

Geographical Regions

You can also read our articles according to geographical location.

AI, AI-world, artificial intelligence, China, computing power, Deep Learning, featured, HPC, international order, power, processor, Russia, Saudi Arabia, scenarios, supercomputer, U.S, U.S. Army, ZTE, scenarios, warning, Red (Team) Analysis Society

As time goes by, the unfolding future becomes the present then the past.

Articles and reports progressively build an analytical trove to make sense of the world, to understand the dynamics at work out of which the future emerges.

Articles and reports are essential elements for the state of the art/literature review of the methodology of strategic foresight and warning and risk management.

How to Foresee and Warn – Methodology

The methodological aspects of strategic foresight and warning, risk management, or horizon scanning are addressed in a large collection of in-depth articles.

Practically develop and enhance, step by step, your anticipatory analytical skills to tackle complex geopolitical, national and global security and political issues. Check our online course: From process to analytical modeling.

The articles of this section are aimed at practitioners, as well as students, who want to understand better how anticipation is done, from scanning the horizon to scenario-building through indicators and delivery to decision-makers.

All the articles address the various challenges that we can face at each step of the strategic foresight and warning process for political and geopolitical risks and uncertainties: analyse, scan and monitor, evaluate, and deliver.

The largest part of our research articles are now premium content. Usually a summary, abstract, the introduction, or the first lines of the premium access articles remain free, so you can decide if you want to read or not the premium articles.

We nonetheless strive to still provide some of our most fundamental articles and research as open access (free for readers) publications. Give it a try and start reading our open access articles.

Monitoring and Scanning (open access – without analysis)

Our scanning and monitoring is grounded in years of practice and in-depth knowledge and experience of research for political and geopolitical issues. The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly scans the horizon every week for weak – and less weak – signals regarding all political and geopolitical risks and uncertainties, as well as national and global changes and instability, using crowdsourcing. 

The Sigils are a series of daily, raw (non edited) scans. Each focuses on a specific issue and are provided through the platform Paper.Li.

The Horizon Scanning Board provides selected open source intelligence – OSINT – signals that are particularly interesting, among all those signals we identify, analyse and use. A collection of signals are provided here as a demonstration sample only.

A short FAQ

What is strategic foresight?

Strategic Foresight is a process and a methodology of analysis. It seeks to anticipate the future, and to reduce the potential for surprise in an actionable way. It is crucial for preparedness.

What is the process of strategic foresight?

Strategic Foresight and Warning is an organized and systematic process to reduce uncertainty regarding the future that aims at allowing policy-makers and decision-makers to take decisions with sufficient lead time to see those decisions implemented at best.
It is now very similar to risk management.

What is strategic foresight analysis?

SF&W analysis is an analysis that will use all valid methodologies to develop an understanding, grounded in reality, of the future, useful to decision-makers and policy-makers for carrying out their mission. The objective is to avoid surprise, and thus to be prepared.

What is foresight analysis?

Foresight analysis is an analysis that seeks to anticipate the future. Stricto sensu, foresight is used for issues that are technical, for R&D, and for technical innovation. It is a part of the larger strategic foresight family of anticipatory activities.

What is forecasting?

Forecasting refers to the use of quantitative techniques, notably statistics, to anticipate the future.

Why is foresight important?

Foresight is crucial to avoid surprises, as these may have catastrophic impacts on objectives. Foresight allows us to anticipate threats and dangers. As a result we can take timely adequate actions to mitigate the impact of these dangers. Foresight is the only tool that allows for preparedness, especially when uncertainty abounds. Foresight, finally, allows turning uncertainty and the future into opportunities. Foresight is crucial for survival and for success.

What is risk management?

Risk management is the management of “The effect of uncertainty on objectives”, according to the definition of the International Standard Organisation (ISO 31000:2018). It notably includes the steps of contextualising the risk, assessing the risk and treating the risk.

What is horizon scanning?

Horizon scanning is the same as strategic foresight, and similar to risk management. It is a process to reduce uncertainty regarding the future for decision-makers and policy-makers. It is a label that is especially used in the U.K., as well as in Singapore.

What is red team analysis?

Red team analysis, red teaming or red teaming activity was used initially in the U.S. Army to simulate the activity of opponents in war-gaming and strategic simulations
By extension, Red Team Analysis aims at promoting a strategic foresight analysis grounded in science that struggles against our many cognitive, normative and emotional biases through various tools and methodologies, including not being limited by “politically correct” approaches.
Interestingly in the Soviet Union, during the Cold War, similar activities were called Blue or Green Team activity.

What is political risk?

Political risks are all events that are linked to the political system of a country and may impact the objectives of an actor notably through uncertainty and change.
Most consultancy and experts take a narrow approach to political risks and focus exclusively on elections, political parties, elite politics and legal system. This is a very partial approach as much is missed, thus increasing the risks for the actors. Check our video explaining in detail what is political risk.

What is geopolitical risk?

Geopolitical risks is a term used to cover all risks related to the impact of international politics and international relations on the objectives of actors, notably through change and uncertainty. For example, we have risks related to interstate wars, diplomatic raws, sanctions, as well as competition for international influence, competition for power among international actors. More broadly, from the point of view of an actor, every event external to the society (country) of this actor can be seen as potentially generating a “geopolitical” or external risk. Global risks, such as those linked to pandemic and epidemic, energy security, water security, climate change etc. can be seen as having geopolitical dimensions.

Some customers and references

We strive to build a relationship of trust with every client. We do not publicize our work for our clients. We do not mention the name of our private clients, nor of our public clients when the work is confidential. Here are some of customers and references we can mention.

More About Us…

The Red (Team) Analysis Society, it is also work “behind-the-scenes” in fora, workshops, conferences and networks.

Read more about us, about our team and network of partners, and about “behind-the-scenes” work and detailed public references here.

Credit Featured images:

Top Image: ESO/B. Tafreshi – twanight.org
Consulting Image: ALMA antennas under the Milky Way, ESO/José Francisco Salgado (josefrancisco.org)
Sense-making (Think Tank) Image: TRAPPIST–South robotic telescope, ESO’s La Silla Observatory – ESO/E.Jehin.