What will happen in the future? How can you manage uncertainty? How can you avoid costly and lethal surprise? How can you improve how you deal with the future? How can you cope with future dangers, pressures but also take advantage of opportunities? Which are those issues, how do they evolve and what to expect next? Welcome to strategic foresight and warning and to the website of The Red (Team) Analysis Society.
Crucial issues on the watch
Mouse over the images to see the name of the issues on our watch, and click on one of them to access the corresponding section: towards a new paradigm; the future of the modern nation-state; protest movements; water security; energy security; extreme environments (space, arctic, deep-sea); environment and security; East Asia security; war; crisis and war in Ukraine; the Islamic State or Caliphate War, and related war in Syria (scenarios); and war in Libya. Furthermore, through our project focusing on enhancing the way to tackle temporal elements in analysis we shall study, within that framework, the relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
How to foresee and warn?
Start with the basics, including understanding better the multiple names given to anticipation.
Learn how to use strategic foresight and warning, how to identify those issues to which we must pay attention, how to create strategic foresight and warning mapping, how to elaborate scenarios, how to select indicators, how to monitor a situation with those indicators, and finally how to best deliver the result of your efforts to decision-makers. Imagine how to improve anticipation and explore tools and methodologies. To those ends, use the methodological sections displayed as images below, that constitute an ideal strategic foresight and warning process: analyse, scan and monitor, evaluate, deliver (click on a photo to access the corresponding section).
Monitoring and Scanning
Every week, The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly scans the horizon for national and international security, using crowdsourcing.
The Sigils are a series of daily, raw (non edited) scan. Each focuses on a specific issue and can be read on Paper.Li (click on the corresponding image below to access it – full image credit in editorial on Paper.Li). Check our latest addition: The Caliphate War Sigils
News & Events
Some news and (non confidential) events, workshops, training or interviews involving The Red (Team) Analysis Society or members of its team.
Countering Radicalisation and Violent Extremism in the Sahel-Maghreb Region / Programme de Prévention Régionale contre l’Extrémisme Violent dans le Maghreb et le Sahel, P-PREV (A European Union – United Nations Pilot Project – Fr) – (with Boislandry Consulting via CiviPol Conseil) – Senior consultant for early warning – Nov 2015 onward.
Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP) – Foresight and Strategic Planning Course: Shaping the Present, Planning the Future – 21-24 September 2015, Geneva – Dr Helene Lavoix teaches “Introduction to Foresight and Early Warning ” on 21 Sept.
SciencesPo – Paris School of International Affairs – Semester Autumn 2015 – Dr Helene Lavoix teaches the “Risk Analysis & Crisis Management” Course (Master).
Atlantico – 24 August 2015 – Special interview of Dr Jean-Michel Valantin – “Environnement, géopolitique, migration : pourquoi le réchauffement climatique est déjà là et ce que cela change pour la planète” (Environment, geopolitics, migration: why is global warming already here and what does that change for the planet)
Swiss Confederation/OECD – Fourth Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management “Anticipating crises and their potential pathways”, Geneva, Switzerland – 28-29 May, 2015 – Keynote speaker “From weak signals to crisis scenarios” (Dr Helene Lavoix)
International Relations Studies Association – TUIC – Turkey-Balkan Economy Summit, Istanbul, Turkey, 11 – 12 April 2015 – Speaker: “Enlarging the Shadow of the Future” – Improving Cooperation between Turkey and The Balkans and Sustainable Development (Dr Helene Lavoix)
Vesalius College – Brussels – Global Risk Analysis & Crisis Management Executive Course: Modules 2 & 5 – Analysing Risks, Preparing for Uncertainty, and Scenarios analysis 24 – 25 Oct 2014 & 31 Jan- 1 Feb 2015: Curriculum design and Training (Dr Helene Lavoix)
Vesalius College – Brussels – Global Risk Analysis & Crisis Management Executive Course: Module 1 – Understanding Risks, Grasping Uncertainty: 26 – 27 September 2014: Curriculum design and Training (Dr Helene Lavoix)
European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) and EEAS – Crisis management 2014: the EU record, 23 May 2014, Brussels (see Programme EUISS EEAS 23 May): Introduction and chair “Crisis rooms: towards a global network?’ (Dr Helene Lavoix)
League Of Arab States, European Commission – League Of Arab States Liaison Office Malta, EEAS, UNDP – 27 February to 1 March 2014, Malta – Early Warning Systems and Scenarios training workshop: co-training and co-facilitation (Dr Helene Lavoix)
Vesalius College – Brussels – Global Risk Analysis & Crisis Management Executive Course: Module 5 – Global Crisis Monitoring, Conflict Analysis & Early Warning – 31st January and 1st February 2014: Curriculum design and Training (Dr Helene Lavoix)
Royal Military Academy (KMS-ERM) – Chair of World Politics, Conflict Studies Department – Brussels – 6 January 2014: Ex-cathedralecture on Strategic Foresight and Warning and workshop on Time, Timeline and Strategic Warning (Dr Helene Lavoix)
Alliance Geostratégique (AGS) – Café Stratégique – Paris – 12 December 2013: Conference on War and Environment (guerre et environnement) (Dr Jean-Michel Valantin)
Event EEAS (EU) – High Level Conference on Managing Complex International Crisis: “Towards a Global Network of crisis rooms”- Brussels – 3 – 4 December 2013: Organisation and Moderation of Round Table B2 “Information Sharing – Communication” (Dr Helene Lavoix)