Strategic Foresight & Warning Analysis

Strategic Foresight and Warning (SF&W) is at once process and analysis.

By SF&W analysis we mean all methodologies and related issues allowing for the development of an understanding grounded in reality that will generate best anticipatory products, useful to decision-makers and policy-makers for carrying out their mission (to find your way within the myriad of labels given to anticipatory activities, see Intelligence, strategic foresight and warning, risk management, forecasting or futurism? and When risk management meets SF&W).

The larger SF&W analytical method can be seen as following the following steps, with use of various methodologies and related challenges for each step:

Strategic Foresight and Warning analytical methodology, foresight analysis, scenariosAn example of what is involved in step 1 is given here with the bibliography and links or with the bibliography on Syria, on the one hand, with the Red (Team) Analysis Weekly on the other. A more detailed discussion of step 1 and 6 can be found in the section scan & monitor.

A summary of the methodology used for the second and third steps is presented here with Creating the model I & IIDetermining criteriaVariables, values and consistency in dynamic networks and finally Using ego networks in foresight analysisThe Chronicles of Everstate also exemplify one way to map an issue and use it to develop narratives. Our online course, From Process to Creating your Analytical Model… focuses on these steps.

Examples of scenarios and their indicators are given for Syria and Libya, where we furthermore detail the methodology to evaluate the likelihood of each scenario.

Those steps are also addressed in the section Assessing future security threats, where we share our latest insights and foresights both on methodology and specific geopolitical global issues, risks and uncertainties.

The monitoring part of step 6 is done for various issues through The Sigils, as well as through The Weekly. These real life indications allow checking the validity of scenarios, and updating the model used for each issue, as done, for example, in the section on end of year predictions. They also allow identifying new emerging issues (the feedback on step 1).