Last week’s summary: In 2012 EVT, in Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state), people seek security as they increasingly feel the negative impact of various pressures and threats on their life. Henceforth they turn to their political authorities and even start trying to compel them to provide this security. Through those … Continue reading 2012 EVT: Budget Deficit and Liquidity (The Chronicles of Everstate)

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No32, 26th January 2012

No32, 26th January 2012

Domestic and international tensions are increasingly entwined in a pattern that is not likely to recede soon. Positively, an effort has started to tackle our very outdated models. Meanwhile our chessboard and the frontiers of plausibility are being redrawn to include space and cloaking.

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National security Horizon Scanning January 26, 2012

Last week’s summary: In 2012 EVT, in Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state), the population’s discontent increases – and is bound to continue to do so – as a result of various pressures and threats, most of them inevitable, imperfectly identified, and not understood. Indeed, Everstatans feel both directly … Continue reading 2012 EVT: Seeking Security (The Chronicles of Everstate)

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No31, 19th January 2012

No31, 19th January 2012

Moves on a dangerous chessboard: On the current – unsurprising now – chessboard of serious financial and economic crisis, tension with Iran, and resources and energy difficulties, further signs of concern appear as actors, old and new, from citizens to governments through private companies, from China to the US through Romania and Germany, assert their positions, power (capability to act) and strategies in an array of undisguised moves.

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2012 EVT: Rising Discontent (The Chronicles of Everstate)

Last weeks’ summary: Everstate (an ideal-type for our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state) is part of the international liberal order and ruled under a democratic parliamentary regime. Lately, its governance started being less efficient and as a result began to fail to ensure the security of Everstate’s citizens. Meanwhile, its economy showed sign of losing efficacy and … Continue reading 2012 EVT: Rising Discontent (The Chronicles of Everstate)

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No30, 12th January 2012

No30, 12th January 2012

Sitting on a powder keg: The signals of the last weeks are growing stronger. Tension with Iran continues to increase, and impact on oil prices could starkly affect the economy – and financial markets and trade and supply – while uncertainty regarding the economic situation in China and India rises. Meanwhile, inequality and perception thereof in the US and Europe also increases and related new opposition actors, namely Anonymous and Occupy, strengthen heir position. In the meantime cyber- tension does not abate and involve all actors mentioned…

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Last week’s summary: Everstate (An ideal-type for our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state, to which we now attribute values to be able to develop the scenarios) is a middle-range power located on the Eurasian land mass and part of the international liberal order. It is ruled under a democratic … Continue reading Everstate: Setting the stage (II)

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No29, 5th January 2012

No29, 5th January 2012

For a while now, we have been documenting the rising tension with Iran, which is now a crisis with, beyond direct security impacts effect on oil prices and trade and the economy. Meanwhile weak – and strong – signals regarding the worsening global food situation and related impacts, the continuing and deepening Euro zone problems, global economic crisis and consequences on China, and the rise of a global new opposition movement pile up. Also, a crucial scientific discovery regarding the coming temporal cloaking device (possibility to hide events)…

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For explanations regarding the methodology used to develop the narrative, see the post “Constructing a foresight scenario’s narrative with Ego Networks.” Geopolitical situation*: Everstate, a middle-range power As a medium state power located on the Eurasian land mass, Everstate had not seen its geopolitical position fundamentally altered since the end of the Cold War, and … Continue reading Everstate: Setting the stage (I)

In many foresight methods, once you have identified the main factors or variables and reach the moment to develop the narrative for the scenarios, you are left with no guidance regarding the way to accomplish this step, beyond something along the line of “flesh out the scenario and develop the story.”*