Energy Security: a Bibliography for Foresight and Warning

A Bibliography

Bibliography on energy security for strategic foresight and warning (not exhaustive) built while working on energy issues, notably as senior scientific adviser for the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the Deputy Director for Energy/Environmental Security (2008-2010).

Energy security and foresight

Bray, David A., Sean Costigan, Keith A. Daum, Helene Lavoix, Elizabeth L. Malone, and Chris Pallaris, “Perspective: Cultivating Strategic Foresight for Energy and Environmental Security,” Cambridge Journals, Environmental Practice, volume 11, issue 03, Septembre 2009.

Lavoix, Helene, Why Strategic Foresight and Warning? The case of Energy Security, (slides), RSIS, Public lecture, NTU, Singapore, 19th April 2010

Millennium Project, 2020 Global Energy Scenarios, 2008.

Shell Scenarios, Looking ahead.

Energy Demand

Bartis, James T. and Lawrence Van Bibber, Alternative Fuels for Military Applications, Rand, 2011.

Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), UK energy sector indicators – reports 2005 to 2011 (updated every year).

Herring, Horace, “Rebound effect,” The Encyclopedia of Earth, November 18, 2008.

Holcomb, Franklin H., U.S. Army ERDC-CERL, “Military Requirements,” presentation given at the 2007 Fuel Cell Seminar, October 2007, using data from US EIA 2006 Annual Review.

International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2012, forthcoming November 2012, (updated every year).

International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2011, Executive Summary 2011 November 2011.

Lavoix, Helene, “OSINT analysis: energy security, a perspective from the demand side,” (slides), presentation to the European Commission – Club of Budapest, June 2009.

Rubin, Jeff, “The Efficiency Paradox,” StrategEcon, CIBC World Markets, 27 November 2007.

US Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Outlook 2011, (updated every year).

Warner, Jerry and Peter W. Singer, “Fueling the “Balance”: A Defense Energy Strategy Primer,” Foreign Policy Paper Series, Number 17, 2009, The Brookings Institution.

Energy Supply

General energy sources

Cleveland, Cutler (Lead Author); Dagmar Budikova (Topic Editor). 2007. “Energy quality.” Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). [First published in the Encyclopedia of Earth April 27, 2010; Last revised Date April 27, 2010; Retrieved April 2, 2012 .

Cleveland, Cutler (Lead Author); Peter Saundry (Topic Editor). 2007. “Ten fundamental principles of net energy.” Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). [First published in the Encyclopedia of Earth September 23, 2008; Last revised Date September 23, 2008; Retrieved April 2, 2012]

Cleveland, Cutler, Peter Saundry (Topic Editor). 2008. “Energy Transitions Past and Future,” Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). [First published in the Encyclopedia of Earth September 23, 2008; Last revised Date February 13, 2011; Retrieved April 2, 2012]

UK energy flow chart 2010 by DECCDepartment of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), UK Energy Flow Chart – 1974 to 2010 (yearly since 2007, every three years before, update 2011 during summer 2012).

Energy Export Databrowser (BP Statistical Review 2011)- Accessed 3 April 2012.

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, U.S. Energy flow charts – 2008 to 2010.

Murphy, Tom, “The Alternative Energy Matrix,” The Oil Drum, 2012 – Initially posted on Tom Murphy’s blog, Do the Math.

Sorkhabi, Rasoul, “Putting India on the World’s Petroleum Map” (2006 data), Oil Around the World, Feb 2008.

World Energy Council, among many publications, Survey of Energy Resources, November 2010

Oil & Gas

By azrainman, CC-BY-2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons
By azrainman, CC-BY-2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons (click to see on Flickr)
  • Peak Oil

Campbell, Colin J. and Jean H. Laherrere, “The end of cheap oil,” 
Scientific American, March 1998.

Dixon, Thomas Homer, The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of civilization, (Knopf, 2006);

Energy Bulletin (Post Carbon Institute)

Hirsch, Robert L., SAIC, Project Leader, Roger Bezdek, MISI, Robert Wendling, MISI Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management, For the U.S. DOE, February 2005.

King Hubbert, Marion,  “Energy from Fossil Fuels,” Science, vol. 109.

Klare, Michael, Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum, (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2004; paperback, Owl Books, 2005);

Klare, Michael, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy (Henry Holt & Company, Incorporated, 2008);

Roland Vially, “Les réserves de pétrole,” IFP Energies nouvelles (IFPEN), janvier 2012.

Rubin, Jeff, Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization, Random House, 2009;

Staniford, Stuart, “IEA acknowledges peak oil,” Published Nov 10 2010, Energy Bulletin. See also the posts published in The Oil Drum.

The Oil Drum: Discussions about energy and our future

Vail, Jeff, “Five Geopolitical Feedback-Loops in Peak Oil,” Energy Intelligence Note, April 23, 2007

Van der Veer, Jeroen  (Shell’s CEO), “Two Energy Futures,” Shell, January 22 2007.

Yves Mathieu, “Où en sont les réserves mondiales de pétrole et de gaz naturel,” (video – French). September 2007, Conférence, IFP.

  • Olduvai Theory (Controversial)

Duncan, Richard C., “The Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age,, 1996.

Duncan, Richard C., “The Olduvai Theory – Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living,” Social Contract Journal, Volume 19, Number 4 (Summer 2009).

The Oil Drum, “Revisiting the Olduvai Theory,” March 6, 2006

  • Anti-Peak Oil

Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS-CERA, “There Will Be Oil,” The Wall Street Journal, September 17, 2011

OPEC website

  • Prices

Alhajji, Anas F., “Oil’s Vicious Cycles: Oil Production Does Not Matter, Exports Do,” Oil, Gas & Energy Law Intelligence (OGEL), Vol. 10 – issue 3, March 2012.

Verleger, Philip K., “The coming Triple-Digit Oil Price” The International Economy, Fall 2007.

Verleger, Philip K., “Anatomy of the 10-Year Cycle in Crude Oil Prices,” March 2009.

  • Oil prices related to a potential war with Iran and the closing of the Strait of Ormuz

De Sousa, Luis, “Tactics and Strategy at the Strait of Hormuz,” The Oil Drum, March 5, 2012.

Scenarios by Pimco republished as ”Pimco’s 4 “Iran Invasion” Oil Price Scenarios: From $140 To “Doomsday” by Zerohedge on 29 November 2011.

Scenarios by Societe Generale: “SocGen Lays It Out: ‘EU Iran Embargo: Brent $125-150. Straits Of Hormuz Shut: $150-200‘”published by Zerohedge, 8 January 2012

Tar sands & Shale gas

Daya, Ayesha  Brian Swint and Rakteem Katakey, “Iran Power Declining in Oil Market as Explorers Spend $90 Billion: Energy,” March 13, 2012.

Energy BulletinShale gas” – March 5 2012.

Environmental cost of some of the techniques involved for shale gas and fracking, tarsands:

Humphries, Marc, North American Oil Sands: History of Development, Prospects for the Future, CRS, 2008.

Levi, Michael A., The Canadian oil sands: energy security vs. climate change, Council on Foreign Relations, 2009.

The Oil Drum, “A Review of the Citigroup Prediction on US Energy,” The Oil Drum, April 1, 2012.

Vially, Roland  Non-conventional hydrocarbons: evolution or revolution? IFP, November 2011.

Wikipedia, Oil Sands.


Cusick, Daniel  and ClimateWire, “Asian Demand Forecasts Boom for Coal,” Scientific American, May 14, 2012.


Energy Watch Group, Coal: resources and future production, 2007.

IEA, FAQs: Coal, 2012

Kavalov, B.  and S. D. Peteves, The Future of Coal, Institute for Energy (IFE), prepared for European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2007. Slides.

Kavalov, B. Coal of the Future, Institute for Energy (IFE), prepared for European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2007.

Li, Minqi, Peak Coal and China, The Oil Drum, July 4, 2011.

Rutledge, David, “Estimating Long-Term World Coal Production with Logit and Probit Transforms,” International Journal of Coal Geology, Jan 2011.

US National Academy of Sciences, Coal – Report in Brief, 2007.

Vernon, Chris  Coal – The Roundup, The Oil Drum Europe, 2007.

World Coal Association, The coal resource a comprehensive overview of coal, 2005

World Coal Association, Coal – Energy for Sustainable Development, 2012.

Nuclear Energy

Dittmar, Michael, The Future of Nuclear Energy: Facts and Fiction, Institute of Particle Physics, ETH, Zurich, August to November 2009:

Dittmar, Michael, “The Future of Nuclear Energy: Facts and Fiction: An update using 2009/2010 Data,” August 2009, Institute of Particle Physics, ETH.

Dittmar, Michael, “The End of Cheap Uranium,” contributed paper to the World Resource Forum 2011 in Davos, June 2011.

Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), publications, notably latest figures on uranium production.

The Associated Press, “Japan shuts off nuclear power as thousands celebrate – Island nation is without electricity from nuclear power for first time in four decades,” May 5, 2012 – CBC News.

Alternatives Energies

Murphy, Tom, Do the Math: Using physics and estimation to assess energy, growth, options. (Blog)

  • Hydropower

Worldwatch Institute, “Use and Capacity of Global Hydropower Increases.” (January 2012).

  • Peat
  • Biofuels and bioenergy
  • Solar Energy
  • Other types

From wind and geothermal powers to space-located energy (moon and asteroids) domesticating tidal-power, wave-power, creating floors that harvest the energy in every step, or, as in Sweden, capturing and recycling commuters’ body heat, or Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion.

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