Horizon Scanning for National Security Over the summer the Weekly will not be edited. Click on the image or on the link to read the full version on Paper.Li.
Monthly Archives: July 2013
The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No109, 18 July 2013
Horizon Scanning for National Security Over the summer the Weekly will not be edited. Click on the image or on the link to read the full version on Paper.Li.
Report – Potential Futures for Syria in the Fog of War
This report presents three main scenarios (leading to ten sub-scenarios) for the future of Syria and prospects for peace within the next five years, after describing the state of play and the actors on the Syrian battlefield. To consider the fog of war, it identifies indicators to monitor that impact the likelihood of each scenario and sees the scenarios as a dynamic set, where one potential future can morph into another out of an evolving state of play.
The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No108, 11 July 2013
A glimpse into the future? As expected last week, the Egyptian events have already started impacting the world. Influence is rising and falling not only within the Arab World but also internationally, with what appears to be an American struggle to make sense of the events and respond adequately and a steadfast Russian foreign policy. Tension also rises with attacks in the Sinai, while a new outlook for the Syrian opposition could well be emerging. Domestically, the Tamarod approach reaches not only Tunisia but also Libya. Meanwhile, on twitter, the connection has started being made between Turkey and Egypt, each side supporting its counterpart in the other country.
Things seem however far from being settled in Egypt, as in the rest of the world. If the choice of El-Beblawi…
Evaluating Forces on the Syrian Battlefield
Having an idea of the forces present on the battlefield in Syria is crucial to understand the state of play, to follow the course of the war, to evaluate the impact of the decisions taken by external players, and to estimate the likelihood to see one scenario (or one of its variations) happening. Here is a synthesis of the various estimates found for each warring group…
Big Brother in France? Discussion on BBC World Service
The BBC World Service – World Have Your Say invites three experts, including from Red (team) Analysis, to discuss the alleged interception of phone and data by France’s foreign intelligence service, in a way similar to the US Prism programme.
The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No107, 4 July 2013
Horizon Scanning for National Security – No107 – Egypt: a complete game-changer – The events that have been taking place in Egypt as well as the reaction to them illustrate the potential end of a very shallow understanding of democracy since the end of World War II. This shallow understanding of democracy limited it to elections, thus to politician politics, with a complete disregard for all other values and ideals included within democracy and with a complete denial of the complex links existing between regime (democracy for example), state, and ruler (which is currently “the nation”). This shallow understanding went hand in hand with modernization…