The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No117, 12 September 2013

While a violent battle to win the minds through information, misinformation, manipulation, and deception is at work around Syria, the international order is changing out of the interactions between players. Will the post-1945 order prove resilient enough or are we heading towards a system that will look more like a 19th century Europe, or shall we see emerging something more complex including elements of “Middle-Age geopolitics and geostrategy”? The dire state of public finances across many countries, poverty and inequality, which have not disappeared far from it, the widespread distrust in governments existing in many Western countries, on the one hand, the evolution of the war in Syria, on the ground, on the other, are elements that should not be forgotten but, on the contrary, integrated to take any informed decision in the present and to attempt any judgement on the future.

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horizon scanning for national security, signal, anticipatory intelligence, political risk

About the author: Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the Director of The Red (Team) Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for national and international security issues. Her current focus is on Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Science, and Security. She teaches at Master level at SciencesPo-PSIA.

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