A new world order in the making: America, Britain and Russia – The world is changing and the decisions taken by the various actors are not only reactions to those changes and their anticipated direction and impact, but also contributions towards the very evolution of the system. We thus see the U.S. revising – rather …
Continue reading “The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No124, 31 October 2013”
Pirates, scientists and climate change “It was like the wild west out there”. This comment was not made by a soldier after fighting in the streets of Bagdad, or by a police officer coming back from a difficult raid in a dangerous favela in Rio. No, it was made by Peter deMenocal, a marine geologist of …
Continue reading “Somali Piracy: a Model for Tomorrow’s Life in the Anthropocene?”
Japan, an exemplary case for a complex world? The situation of Japan can be seen as a perfect case that exemplifies the complex dynamics into which we are taken. Absence of foresight and warning as well as refusal to consider the reality of environmental risk – and to act accordingly – plays a large part …
Continue reading “The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No123, 24 October 2013”
This update covers the evolution in Syria from July to October 2013. It focuses first on dynamics of change involving the interplay between the Syrian Islamist factions on the ground and international players – especially the declaration of an “Islamic framework” and then the creation of the Islam Army, with impact on the overall situation, and provides an updated mapping for Syrian Islamist groups. It then looks at evolutions related to the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces. Syrian Sunni factions intending to install an Islamist state in Syria (For background and past state of play, see here) It is within those groups that we have been witnessing throughout September-October 2013 the most potent changes. As always, and as Lund stressed …
One of the most important signals of the week was not only, unsurprisingly, the last episode in the never-ending politician American infighting over the debt ceiling, but also, the perceptible fatigue across a wide range of world actors, who were being taken hostage by representatives they had not elected over issues that did not concern …
Continue reading “The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No122, 17 October 2013”
“Winter is coming” This is the motto of the Starks, the eminent feudal family depicted in “Game of Thrones”, the fantasy novel series, by George R.R. Martin [1]. Its members are involved in numerous and interlocking power struggles between the different Houses of a kingdom, whose ruler is weak ( and meets a sad fate). This continent is dominated by a strange climate, divided in two seasons, a summer and a winter, each potentially lasting several years. Winters can be fearfully cold and snowy, induce mass starvation for a very long time, as well as terrible conflicts, and decide, by their harshness, like war, of the destiny of nations. When “Winter is coming”, the moment has come to get prepared for times dominated by cold, despair and …
Continue reading “Climate Change, a Geostrategic Issue? Yes!”
The Red (Team) Analysis Society welcomes Dr Jean Michel Valantin, who will focus on issues and problems related to climate change and national security. Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris) is specialised in strategic studies and defense sociology, and more particularly in environmental geostrategy. He is the author of Menaces climatiques sur l’ordre mondial (Climatic threat on the …
Continue reading “Welcome to a new Author on Climate Change Security”
This week among the major clusters of signals that emerge, we have those about Turkey, its geopolitics and growing Islamism, then the chronicles of an environmental catastrophe in the making, including resources depletion, with the rising importance of a “Gold Rush to Space” as one counterweight. In this framework, if we look at another – …
Continue reading “The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No121, 10 October 2013”
As underlined when we started the series on Syria, one of the analytical challenges we face, in terms of strategic foresight and warning, is the fog of war. The, at time, rapid evolution of the situation, fits badly with any static mean to deliver analysis. We need, of course, to monitor what is happening, but also to regularly integrate this surveillance in our strategic analysis and finally to make it known to concerned audience (readers, decision-makers, policy-makers). After having outlined the methodological difficulties and presented the solution chosen, we shall focus on the updates themselves. Methodology: challenges and imperfect solutions First, in terms of periodicity and content of publication (delivery in SF&W jargon), a right balance must be found between …
Besides other issues, the agreement between the U.S. and Japan to modernize their security cooperation, implying among others a larger role for Japan, is most likely to have ripple effects, notably considering the tense situation with China and unhealed regional wounds stemming from World War II. Energy security then is very much to the fore, …
Continue reading “The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No120, 3 October 2013”
