Keeping in mind the complex and fluid character of the situation in Syria, we present below entry points to the current state of play and the various categories of actors fighting in and over Syria with mention of the last update. Scenarios for the future following from this assessment can then be accessed. The scenarios will evolve, notably in terms of likelihood, from changes on the battleground and in interactions between all actors and evolutions will be noted as possible. Sections relative to methodology and bibliography can be found at the bottom of the page. A full report in pdf – Potential Futures for Syria in the Fog of War, published on 15 July 2013 is also available.
Read first: Potential Futures for Syria in the Fog of War presenting fundamentals to understand the war in Syria.
Check the Portal to the war against the Islamic State as the war in Syria may not anymore be understood outside this broader context. See notably: At War against the Islamic State – From Syria to the Region by H Lavoix, 2 November 2015.
State of Play
- Monitoring the War against the Islamic State or against a Terrorist Group? by H Lavoix, 29 September 2014
- Evaluating Scenarios and Indicators for the Syrian War, by Helene Lavoix, 10 March 2014.
- The Syrian War: the Start of a New Phase, by Helene Lavoix, 24 February 2014.
- The Kurds and Rojava, State-Building in the Syrian War, by Helene Lavoix, 10 February 2014.
- Facing the Fog of War in Syria: the Rise of the Salafi-Nationalists? by Helene Lavoix, 27 January 2014.
- Facing the Fog of War in Syria: The Tragedy of Kurdistan, by Helene Lavoix, 4 November 2013.
- Facing the Fog of War in Syria: The Syrian Islamists Play the Regional “Game of Thrones”, by Helene Lavoix, 21 October 2013.
- Facing the Fog of War in Syria: Updates – The Al-Assad regime groups, by Helene Lavoix, 7 October 2013.
- Evaluating Scenarios and Indicators for the Syrian War (10 March 2014).
- On updating assessments and facing the fog of war: Facing the Fog of War in Syria: Updates (7 October 2013).
- (updated 19 December 2013) The Syrian War – Bibliography and Sources, Regularly updated to add new sources – published initially on 24 June 2013. Focus on the domestic situation.