Scenarios for the future built in 2013 are available. The scenarios evolve, notably in terms of likelihood, out of changes on the battleground and interactions between all actors. Notably, the evolution which is more specifically focused on the Islamic State is addressed in the corresponding page, as it is larger than the situation on the Syrian battlefield (see notably: At War against the Islamic State – From Syria to the Region by H Lavoix, 2 November 2015).
Sections relative to methodology and bibliography can be found at the bottom of the page.
Read first: Potential Futures for Syria in the Fog of War presenting fundamentals to understand the war in Syria.
- The Middle East Powder Keg and the Great Battle for Raqqa – by H Lavoix, 12 June 2017.
- The Kurds in Syria – State-Building, New Model and War – by H Lavoix, 22 May 2017.
- The Battle of Raqqa, the Kurds and Turkey – by H Lavoix, 2 May 2017.
- Monitoring the War against the Islamic State or against a Terrorist Group? by H Lavoix, 29 September 2014
- Evaluating Scenarios and Indicators for the Syrian War, by Helene Lavoix, 10 March 2014.
- The Syrian War: the Start of a New Phase, by Helene Lavoix, 24 February 2014.
- The Kurds and Rojava, State-Building in the Syrian War, by Helene Lavoix, 10 February 2014.
- Facing the Fog of War in Syria: the Rise of the Salafi-Nationalists? by Helene Lavoix, 27 January 2014.
- Facing the Fog of War in Syria: The Tragedy of Kurdistan, by Helene Lavoix, 4 November 2013.
- Facing the Fog of War in Syria: The Syrian Islamists Play the Regional “Game of Thrones”, by Helene Lavoix, 21 October 2013.
- Facing the Fog of War in Syria: Updates – The Al-Assad regime groups, by Helene Lavoix, 7 October 2013.
(A full report in pdf – Potential Futures for Syria in the Fog of War, published on 15 July 2013 is also available).
State of Play (up until 2014)
- Evaluating Scenarios and Indicators for the Syrian War (10 March 2014).
- On updating assessments and facing the fog of war: Facing the Fog of War in Syria: Updates (7 October 2013).
- (updated 19 December 2013) The Syrian War – Bibliography and Sources, Regularly updated to add new sources – published initially on 24 June 2013. Focus on the domestic situation.