Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya – Scenario 2 Partition

We shall now discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various partition scenarios, after having detailed the indicators and determined the likelihood for intervention in the last article. Note: In the following article, we shall use the acronym COR for the Council of Representatives (nationalists), GNC for the General National Congress (Islamists), and GNA for the UN-backed Government of National Accord (unity government). Organizing the Scenarios and Indicators Considering that external actors are already intervening in Libya, as we saw previously, as well as the fact that surrounding countries are experiencing migrant, smuggling, and jihadist spillover from Libya’s civil war, we organized the parent scenarios to account for these certainties. The next branch of scenarios—which have not occurred yet—are …

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Published by Jon Mitchell (Ma)

He is an independent researcher and writer pursuing his MA in Public Policy – International Affairs from Liberty University, U.S.. He has contributed to a political-economic analysis report for a non-profit international organization, compiled an unofficial analysis report on Boko Haram for a U.S. Congressional Committee, and writes articles for Foreign Policy Journal. While interning with the Hudson Institute, he researched critical regional security issues and analyzed complex international challenges in their Center for Political-Military Analysis. View more posts