Impact on Issues

/ ➄ Failed peace talks / Continued war in Libya

On Monday 16 October 2017 evening, the Council of Representatives (COR) dialogue committee suspended its participation in the Tunisia-hosted peace negotiations with the Government of National Accord (GNA).

For previous and other signals check the

Horizon Scanning Board

According to the official statement and members of the COR’s committee, the dispute is focused on a lack of guarantees by the GNA on forming a new united government. Other sources present at the meetings confirmed that the GNA’s objection to annulling Article 8 of the Libyan Political Agreement led to the COR’s walkout.

Article 8

All powers of the senior military, civil and security posts stipulated in the Libyan legislations and laws in force shall be transferred to the Presidency Council of the Council of Ministers immediately upon signing this Agreement. The Presidency Council must take a decision on the occupants of such posts within a period that does not exceed twenty (20) days. In case a decision is not reached during this period, the Presidency Council shall take decisions on new appointments within a period that does not exceed thirty (30) days, while taking into account the Libyan legislations in force.”

In essence, Article 8 would “[reset] the military leadership of the country—and more importantly, the position currently held by General Haftar as head of the armed forces,” explained analyst Mattia Toaldo.

Related

Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods

The inclusion (or exclusion) of General Haftar in a new Libyan government has long been a source of contention between the actors. As we noted in our concluding post on scenarios for Libya’s future, views on General Haftar minimally affect the likelihood of the GNA participating in peace negotiations, but his inclusion in a new government significantly affects the likelihood of seeing a signed peace treaty.

This noteworthy action of the COR’s dialogue committee serves as a reminder of Haftar’s effect on any comprehensive peace process. Although this event has a minimal level of intensity, it escalates the likelihood of a failed peace talks—and ultimately, continued war in Libya.

Libya east parliament’s dialogue committee abandons Tunisia meetings

The Head of the dialogue committee of the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) Abdelsalam Nesiya, announced Monday evening that they had suspended their participation in the negotiations in Tunisia at the UNSMIL’s headquarters. In a televised statement, Nasiya explained that after days of deliberations, the HoR delegation remark

Libyan Political Agreement, December 17, 2015

Mattia Toaldo, “Libya’s Political Stalemate,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 3, 2016

About the author: Jon Mitchell (Ma)

He is an independent researcher and writer pursuing his MA in Public Policy – International Affairs from Liberty University, U.S.. He has contributed to a political-economic analysis report for a non-profit international organization, compiled an unofficial analysis report on Boko Haram for a U.S. Congressional Committee, and writes articles for Foreign Policy Journal. While interning with the Hudson Institute, he researched critical regional security issues and analyzed complex international challenges in their Center for Political-Military Analysis.

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