Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Degree of influence of Russia on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty)

 to  Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria
➚ ➃ Russia influence trial

As the seventh round of Astana talks proceeds (30 Oct-31 Oct 2017), Russia’s envoy Alexander Lavrentyev stated:

“The question arises on how to involve the Kurds more actively in the post-conflict restoration and political resolution.”

This statement, as well as the federal design for Syria Russia favours,  would let us expect that Russia will support the Kurdish led project, i.e. to see their Federation of Northern Syria within a united Syria survive and strive. As a result, the survival of the Kurdish-led project becomes more likely.

Russia to involve Kurds ‘more actively’ in post-war Syria

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region (Kurdistan 24) – As the seventh round of Russia-initiated Astana peace talks to end the Syrian war kicked off on Monday, President Vladimir Putin’s Syria envoy Alexander Lavrentyev said a “more active” involvement of the Kurds in a political solution was an “issue.”

About the author: Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the Director of The Red (Team) Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for national and international security issues. Her current focus is on Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Science, and Security. She teaches at Master level at SciencesPo-PSIA.

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