Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

?  Perceptions, reactions and interactions outside Barcelona, notably in independence towns and areas, as well as outside major “central regional” political and civil servant circles (critical uncertainty).

➘➘➘ ➁ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence

➘➘➘ ➁  Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain

➘➙ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally

We identified with previous signals that two uncertainties were critical to see stabilisation or, on the contrary, escalation, taking place in Catalonia over its independence.

One of them was the capability of the Spanish government to reassert its rule over the break away region in a stabilising way, notably without violence. This is what Madrid has so far succeeded in doing.

The second was the willingness of the proponents of an Independent Catalunya to stand up at all costs for their ideal and goals, while also remaining true to their non-violent commitment. This is not what the ruling political authorities appear to have done. On the contrary they extremely quickly submitted to Madrid’s, from acquiescence of deputies not to convene, to the running away of the Catalan executive, to the union’s cancellation of a general strike, to acceptance of new elections decided by Madrid – which de facto deny the reality of the previous independence declaration – to the absence of peaceful and civil disobedience by civil servants. If we seek falsification, to see this rapid submission transformed into a stand for independence, we would have to imagine a grand scheme designed to lull Madrid into confidence to allow for the organisation of a massive civil disobedience movement. This sounds highly unlikely, although of course not impossible.

Nonetheless, the situation outside Barcelona, notably in pro-independence towns, as well as outside civil servants and elite circles should be also surveilled for better analytical judgement on the future, as such collective processes could indeed take place, and thus constitute a new critical uncertainty.

In conclusion, the monitoring of the uncertainties initially identified would indicate that the situation is likely to be stabilising Catalonia, assuming nothing derails the current trend, and no new development takes place outside Barcelona and regional major political circles.

Spanish prosecutor accuses sacked Catalan leader of rebellion

BARCELONA/MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s state prosecutor accused sacked Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont of rebellion and sedition on Monday as the former regional president traveled to Belgium with other members of his ousted administration and hired a lawyer there.

About the author: Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the Director of The Red (Team) Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for national and international security issues. Her current focus is on Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Science, and Security. She teaches at Master level at SciencesPo-PSIA.

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