Impact on Issues

/ ➄ Stalled peace dialogue / Continued war in Libya

On Monday, the head of the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) High Council of State—Abdulrahman Swehli—reiterated the continued inability of the GNA and the Council of Representatives (COR) to agree on General Haftar’s role in a united government.

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Horizon Scanning Board

Swehli said that delegations from both governments have mostly agreed on a new government structure to rule the country until 2018 elections, with the exception of military control and Haftar’s role. “The obstacle now is mostly about the military and how it will be run and who will be in control,” Swehli said. “The other side is very clear that they want to carry on with what they have at the moment, which is not good for our democracy. We are still far away from each other.”

The Council of Representatives based in eastern Libya continues to align itself with General Haftar and demand that he have a leading role in the new Libyan state.

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Portal to Strategic Foresight and Warning Analysis for Libya (Scenarios, likelihoods, indicators, state of play)

Haftar’s polarizing politics and tactics remain a principal source of contention between Libya’s various factions, which undermines any dialogue about his potential role in a united government.

Considering Haftar’s pursuit for power, the COR’s refusal to align with a government that excludes him, and the GNA’s demand that he recognize their authority and submit to civilian control, it’s likely that Libya will continue on the path of political separation and conflict.

Libyan rivals split over army leadership: Tripoli parliament head

TRIPOLI (Reuters) – Libyan factions involved in U.N.-brokered peace talks are still far apart on the issue of the leadership of a future national army, the head of one of two rival parliaments said on Monday.

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