Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

➚ ➃  Reinforced jihadist front in Western Egypt
  Challenges to Egypt as it is squeezed between the Sinai and Western fronts

  Survival of the Islamic State
  Islamic State resurgence in the MENA region, notably Libya
  Strengthening of al-Qaeda in the MENA region

  Reinforced linkages with other jihadist groups and theatre of operations in Africa

It would seem according to the array of indications included within the Reuters article below, that we are facing further spill over of the Islamic State conflict, as expected considering the Islamist Jihadist worldview.

For previous and other signals check the

Horizon Scanning Board

The likely spill over would be taking place in the western part of Egypt, and would originate geographically mainly from Libya and Mesopotamia.

We could have a possible strengthening of al-Qaeda affiliated groups and attacks, as fighters switch allegiance from the Islamic State, because of the latter current disarray in Mesopotamia. However, the Islamic State would also be showing some resurgence in Libya.

Related

Portal to Strategic Foresight and Warning Analysis for Libya (Scenarios, likelihoods, indicators, state of play)

The War against the Islamic State

We could witness both a competition for allegiance between the two nexus of jihadist groups and, on the ground, operational “temporary” alliances, as has already happened in the past in Libya.

Linkages with other jihadist groups and theatre of operations in Africa could also come to the fore.

Egypt Western Desert attack exposes front outside Sinai

A deadly attack on the police in Egypt’s Western Desert claimed by a new militant group risks opening up another front for security forces far beyond the remote northern Sinai, where they have battled a stubborn Islamic State insurgency since 2014.

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