By strategic foresight methodology, we mean this part of the general strategic foresight and warning methodology that focuses on foresight analysis. In other words, it is the general method without the warning part. It thus consist in:

  • Defining the question
  • Step 1: Exploratory stage
  • Step 2 – The creation of the model for SF&W: mapping dynamic networks part I & part II. See also our online course for this part.
  • Step 3 – Building scenarios
  1. Determining criteria: a revisited influence analysis;
  2. Variables, values and consistency in dynamic networks;
  3. Constructing a foresight scenario’s narrative with Ego Networks: This methodology was experimented with the Chronicles of Everstate – It can be used as a guide and fall back in case the analyst faces a hurdle in developing its narrative. However, practically, building a whole narrative with ego network is likely to be too painstaking for an analyst to be systematically used. Should Artificial Intelligence be applied to SF&W, then, possibly, it could, benefit from the ego-network approach.

About the author: Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the Director of The Red (Team) Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for national and international security issues. Her current focus is on Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Science, and Security. She teaches at Master level at SciencesPo-PSIA.

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