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Strategic foresight and warning or more broadly anticipation is a step by step process to anticipate the future in an actionable way.
The graphic ideal type process displayed below is the result of more than a decade of work with and about systems of anticipation, from early warning systems to prevent conflicts for aid agencies to strategic warning and strategic foresight with security and intelligence agencies and practitioners. It considers too research through commissioned reports and teaching on the topic.
It is more particularly adapted to global security, external risks, political and geopolitical risks and uncertainties. Indeed, the process recommended builds upon more than twenty years experience in central administration and in research in the areas of war, international relations, political science, analysis and policy planning.
The architecture of the Red (Team) Analysis Society website is built following this process. Each section strives progressively to address the various challenges that are met at each step, to explain and apply various possible methodologies and tools, and finally to deliver real-life strategic foresight and warning products.
- Intelligence, strategic foresight and warning, risk management, forecasting or futurism?
- Basics of Strategic Foresight and Warning Analysis
Featured image: Stanley Kubrick exhibit at EYE Filminstitut Netherlands, Amsterdam – The War Room (Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb)- By Marcel Oosterwijk from Amsterdam, The Netherlands [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons