The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 13 June 2019

Credit Image: ESO/José Francisco Salgado (josefrancisco.org)

Using horizon scanning, each week, we collect weak – and less weak – signals. These point to new, emerging, escalating or stabilising problems. As a result, they indicate how trends or dynamics evolve.

Featured this week: future new techs of interest for security and defence (and more), and some financing rough time ahead for the American fracking industry, Huawei and cyberinsecurity, and much more…

• The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 19 September 2019
• Towards a U.S.-China War?(2): Military Tensions in the Warming Arctic
• The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 12 Septembre 2019
• Mapping the Chinese Private Actors Race to Quantum
• The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 5 Septembre 2019
• The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 29 August 2019
• The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 22 August 2019
• The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 15 August 2019
• The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 8 August 2019

This week’s scan is ready, check it out below …

Here, we focus on signals that could favourably or unfavourably impact private and public actors in international security. That field is broadly known under various names: e.g. global changes, national and international security, or political and geopolitical uncertainty. In terms of risk management, the label used is external risks.

Below the scan itself, we briefly explain what is horizon scanning and what are weak signals.

Horizon scanning, weak signals and biases

We call signals weak, because it is still difficult to discern them among a vast array of events. However, our biases often alter our capacity to measure the strength of the signal. As a result, the perception of strength will vary according to the awareness of the actor. At worst, biases may be so strong that they completely block the very identification of the signal.

In the field of strategic foresight and warning, risk management and future studies, it is the job of good analysts to scan the horizon. As a result, they can perceive signals. Analysts then evaluate the strength of these signals according to specific risks and dynamics. Finally, they deliver their findings to users. These users can be other analysts, officers or decision-makers.

You can read a more detailed explanation in one of our cornerstone articles: Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Warning: Definition and Practice.

The sections of the scan

Each section of the scan focuses on signals related to a specific theme:

• world (international politics and geopolitics);
• economy;
• science including Quantum Information Science, ;
• analysis, strategy and futures;
• AI, technology and weapons;
• energy and environment.

However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, when facts and events interact across boundaries.

The 13 June 2019 scan→

The information collected (crowdsourced) does not mean endorsement.

Featured image: Four ALMA antennas on the Chajnantor plain – ESO/José Francisco Salgado (josefrancisco.org)