Some references, (non confidential) events, workshops, training or interviews involving The Red (Team) Analysis Society, as well as participation in crucial “behind-the-scenes” meetings and activities, which shape how the field of risk management, strategic foresight and warning, early warning, crisis prevention or more broadly strategic anticipation evolves, from practice, processes, and methodologies, to major issues, specific risks and uncertainties.

At the 3rd ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum) Seminar on Preventive Diplomacy, Mediation and Early Warning Systems in Yangon.

During this extremely interesting seminar, co-chaired by the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, the European Union and the United States, which took place in Yangon, 19-21 June 2017, Dr Helene Lavoix spoke about Early Warning Systems during an expert panel and contributed to the design of some sessions as well as to facilitation.

Training at Vesalius College – Winter 2017

As every year, Helene Lavoix conducted an intensive executive training at Vesalius College in January 2017. This year, the training was also webcast by Vesalius to allow far away students to take the training.

At The World Economic Forum for The Global Risk Report 2017 and the 4th Industrial Revolution

Helene Lavoix was part of the October 2016 preparatory workshop for the forthcoming Global Risks Report 2017 of The World Economic Forum (WEF), held at the WEF beautiful headquarters in Geneva, Cologny.

Updated: The Global Risk Report 2017 is now available, and can be accessed and downloaded on the WEF website (mention of our participation for reference can be found p.70).

wef-entranceThe Global Risk Report is a leading product of the WEF, grounded in the result of a survey, “which gathers the perceptions of the multi-stakeholder constituencies of the World Economic Forum across different areas of expertise, geographies and age groups” (WEF). The forthcoming 2017 Report will be disclosed right before the WEF global and most famous event, the Davos Meeting.

The October seminar gathered a selected group of experts from various fields, from the public, private and academic sectors. As experts, our task was to provide “insights on the survey results, and the interpretation of some risks connections…  to contribute to shape the content of The Global Risks Report 2017” (“WEF”). We thus worked in groups and plenary sessions, facilitated by the great WEF team, on the main risks identified and their interconnections.  Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the WEF, visited our working meeting a couple of times and shared his vision, ideas and dynamism.

Work and discussions continue during lunch break (faces and name tags blurred to respect privacy)

We could also brainstorm on this year’s special focus: emerging technologies and the 4th Industrial Revolution. This theme is the new endeavour of the WEF, and indeed the Forum announced (10 October 2016) the opening of its new “Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution” in San Francisco, “to advance global cooperation” on this tremendous change (see press release) – we were told in confidence during the meeting about this development, but sworn to say nothing until the official announcement, of course.

This was a fantastic meeting, with an incredible wealth of perspectives, constructive discussions, and insights.

At the OECD High Level Risk Forum Policy

Helene Lavoix also took part in the latest (September 2016) High Level Risk Forum (HLRF) Policy seminar “Preparing Governments for Long Term Threats and Complex Challenges”, which took place at the OECD Headquarters. The Red (Team) Analysis Society’s involvement with the HLRF started back in May 2015 in Geneva, when we were invited to give a keynote speech at the Swiss Confederation – OECD Fourth Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management oecdarticle“Anticipating crises and their potential pathways”.

The HLRF Policy seminar was, as usual, a very interesting and productive day, with many ideas by and exchanges between highly experienced practitioners of both the public and private sectors, from various OECD countries. Among others, Greg Treverton, the chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, gave an (unclassified) pre-preview of the forthcoming Global Trends, the U.S. Intelligence Strategic Foresight product prepared every four years for the next President.

We were also delighted to see our own contribution published. Right now, it is only available in hard copy for members of the Forum (the article, of course, as is customary, does not represent the views of the OECD – see photo of the cover page above).

Teaching at SciencesPo-PSIA – Autumn 2016

Teaching, in a very different way, also qualifies as a “behind-the scenes” activity, as education is a primary means towards future good governance and leadership. Helene Lavoix started teaching again at the Paris School of International Affairs of Sciences Po  the course “Risk Analysis & Crisis Management” in the Concentration “Global Risks” of the related Masters (from International security to International Public Management or International Energy) for a new semester. Teaching is, as always, a great multinational experience, where bright students from very diverse regions of the world (from Korea through India to Russia, the U.S., Latin America, or European countries), push us to go always further and deeper into our understanding of and capacity to explain and communicate anticipation.

Biodiversity and Army

Jean-Michel Valantin delivered a speech on “Biodiversity and Army at international level”, and participated in the debates at the International conference “Life, Defence, Nature, 2mil” in Nimes France (June 2016), which gathered high-level defence representatives from numerous countries. The exchanges in plenary and round-tables were lively, constructive and committed in addressing the role of the military in the protection and preservation of biodiversity.

Simulation and role playing

jon-mitchell-simulation-middle-east-300In mid-October, Jon Mitchell ran an interactive diplomacy role-playing simulation on the Middle East, involving 23 players. It is the third such event he develops and leads for students at Liberty University in the U.S.. These diplomacy exercises are based on real-world issues and allow students to role-play various government leaders as they navigate complex diplomatic and military situations.


Helene Lavoix spoke and led the debates at a seminar (July) on “Radicalisation in francophone Africa: causes, indicators and prevention” (Fr “Radicalisation en Afrique francophone : causes, indicateurs et moyens de prévention”), held at the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF), and supported by the  OIF and the French Ministry of Defence.

Other conferences, workshops etc.

biodiv defReconcile operational training with biodiversity preservation on military camps – “Biodiversity and Army at international level” by Dr Jean Michel Valantin – International conference « Life Défense Nature 2mil » held from 28 to 30 June 2016, in Nimes, France.


SciencesPo – Paris School of International Affairs – Semester Autumn Academic Year 2016/2017 – Dr Helene Lavoix teaches the “Risk Analysis & Crisis Management” Course (part of Masters in International Security, International Development, Human Rights and Humanitarian affairs, International Public Management, Advanced Global Studies).

PPREVSenior consultant for early warning – Countering Radicalisation & Violent Extremism in the Sahel-Maghreb Region / Programme de Prévention Régionale contre l’Extrémisme Violent dans le Maghreb et le Sahel, P-PREV (A European Union – UN Pilot Project – Fr via CiviPol Conseil) – Nov 2015 onward

logo sqGeneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP) – Foresight and Strategic Planning Course: Shaping the Present, Planning the Future – 21-24 September 2015, Geneva  – Dr Helene Lavoix teaches “Introduction to Foresight and Early Warning ” on 21 Sept.


SciencesPo – Paris School of International Affairs – Semester Autumn 2015 – Dr Helene Lavoix teaches the “Risk Analysis & Crisis Management” Course (Master).

JMV 2 2014Atlantico – 24 August 2015 – Special interview of Dr Jean-Michel Valantin – “Environnement, géopolitique, migration : pourquoi le réchauffement climatique est déjà là et ce que cela change pour la planète” (Environment, geopolitics, migration: why is global warming already here and what does that change for the planet)

Confederation Helvetique et OECDSwiss Confederation/OECD – Fourth Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management “Anticipating crises and their potential pathways”, Geneva, Switzerland – 28-29 May, 2015 – Keynote speaker “From weak signals to crisis scenarios” (Dr Helene Lavoix)

conf sqInternational Relations Studies Association – TUICTurkey-Balkan Economy Summit, Istanbul, Turkey, 11 – 12 April 2015 – Speaker: “Enlarging the Shadow of the Future” – Improving Cooperation between Turkey and The Balkans and Sustainable Development (Dr Helene Lavoix)

BrusselsVesalius College – Brussels – Global Risk Analysis & Crisis Management Executive Course: Module 2 – Analysing Risks, Preparing for Uncertainty: 24 – 25 October 2014: Curriculum design and Training (Dr Helene Lavoix)

BrusselsVesalius College – Brussels – Global Risk Analysis & Crisis Management Executive Course: Module 1 – Understanding Risks, Grasping Uncertainty: 26 – 27 September 2014: Curriculum design and Training (Dr Helene Lavoix)

European flag outside the Commission by By Xavier Häpe ( [CC-BY-2.0 (], via Wikimedia Commons European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) and EEAS – Crisis management 2014: the EU record, 23 May 2014,  Brussels (see Programme EUISS EEAS 23 May). Introduction and chair “Crisis rooms: towards a global network?’ (Dr Helene Lavoix)

MaltaLeague Of Arab States, European Commission – League Of Arab States Liaison Office Malta,  EEAS, UNDP – 27 February to 1 March 2014, Malta –  Early Warning Systems and Scenarios training workshop: co-training and co-facilitation (Dr Helene Lavoix)

explaining graphsVesalius College – Brussels – Global Risk Analysis & Crisis Management Executive Course: Module 5 – Global Crisis Monitoring, Conflict Analysis & Early Warning – 31st January and 1st February 2014: Curriculum design and Training (Dr Helene Lavoix)

ERM BelgiumRoyal Military Academy (KMS-ERM) – Chair of World Politics, Conflict Studies Department – Brussels – 6 January 2014:
Ex-cathedra lecture on Strategic Foresight and Warning and workshop on Time, Timeline and Strategic Warning (Dr Helene Lavoix)

JMV 2 2014Alliance Geostratégique (AGS) – Café Stratégique – Paris – 12 December 2013:
Conference on War and Environment (guerre et environnement) (Dr Jean-Michel Valentin)


EEASEvent EEAS (EU) – High Level Conference on Managing Complex International Crisis: “Towards a Global Network of crisis rooms”- Brussels – 3 – 4 December 2013: Organisation and Moderation of Round Table B2 “Information Sharing – Communication” (Dr Helene Lavoix)

Senior expert Panel, Vesalius CollegeVesalius College – Brussels – Global Risk Analysis & Crisis Management Executive Course – Module 2 – ‘Analysing Risk, Preparing for Uncertainty’ – 25 October 2013:
Senior expert round-table (Dr Helene Lavoix)

JMV FIACFIAC – Conference – Towards a planetary consciousness? (Vers la conscience planétaire?) – Paris – 24 October 2013: Senior expert round-table, watch video (in Fr) (Dr Jean-Michel Valentin)


BBC World Service – Dakar – October 2013: Interview on Syrian actors (Dr Helene Lavoix)

ParisInstitut Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI) and AXA Research Fund – Paris – Workshop Country Risk – 14 October 2013:
Expert Panel and background paper “Recent Innovations for Early Warning Systems” (Dr Helene Lavoix).

BBC World Service – London – 5 July 2013: expert discussion on Big Brother in France (Dr Helene Lavoix)

RFI – Paris – 7 June 2013:  Interview on What if America was getting ready for climate wars? (Et si l’Amérique se préparait à la guerre du climat?) Listen to podcast 1 & 2 (in Fr)  (Dr Jean-Michel Valentin)

MaltaEuropean Commission – League Of Arab States Liaison office Malta – UNDP – June 2013 – workshop:
Scenario-building training; working group session design and facilitation (Dr Helene Lavoix)