All posts by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix (MFin Paris, MSc PhD Lond), is Director and founder of The Red (team) Analysis Society and a political scientist (International Relations) specialised in Strategic Foresight and Warning (SF&W) for conventional and unconventional security issues. She is teaching at master level at SciencesPo-PSIA. Link to full bio.

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for strategic global changes, national and international security, political and geopolitical risk, or external risks of interest to private and public actors.

Mapping risk and uncertainty is the second step of a proper process to correctly anticipate and manage risks and uncertainties. This stage starts with building a model, which, once completed, will describe and explain the issue or question at hand, while allowing for anticipation or foresight. In other words, with the end of the first step, you have selected a risk, an uncertainty, or a series of risks and uncertainties, or an issue of concern, with its proper time frame and scope, for example, what are the risks and uncertainties to my investment portfolio within the next 18 months to 3 years, or what will be the future of the emerging artificial intelligence world over the next twenty years, or what are the risks and uncertainties to my activity within the next fiver years as a result of China’s rise.

Once this initial question is defined, the second stage is about constructing our underlying model for understanding, i.e. mapping our risk or issue.

As Professor Joshua Epstein underlines, constructing a model – i.e. modeling – is nothing more, actually, than making explicit the hidden, implicit, model we, as human beings, are using when thinking. Epstein lists 16 advantages that result from this explicit modeling, to which we can add a couple more. Among these, we can notably highlight that, in terms of intelligence and anticipation analysis, making the model explicit will help identifying various cognitive, normative and emotional biases, thus allowing for their mitigation. Thanks to this modeling we can think out of the box and overcome silos. Then, the model and its construction will help defining areas of uncertain understanding, which can then be marked for further study, inquiry and research. Meanwhile, an explicit model will also help us working collaboratively, while communication will be greatly eased and enhanced, notably by using tools developed for big data analytics.

How are we thus to transform our inner implicit and imperfect model about the risk and uncertainty of concern into a proper and efficient explicit model to assess correctly risks and uncertainties, design critical responses and communicate about both risks and the decisions taken to manage them?

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Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for global changes, national and international security, political and geopolitical risk or external risks of interest to private and public actors.

Read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning.

Each section of the scan focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; AI, technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, when facts and events interact across boundaries.

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for global changes, national and international security, political and geopolitical risk of interest to private and public actors.

Editorial:  The New York Times’ article Why Jamal Khashoggi’s Killing Has Resonated” by Megan Specia ponders what many have been wondering lately. Why on earth would the murder of Mr Kashoggi, definitely an atrocious crime, definitely terrible for his family and definitely wrong, yet an event that hardly obviously belongs to international relations and even less to major historical events, take center stage not only in the media but also for international actors be they public or private?

Alors que nous entrons dans la «quatrième révolution industrielle», dans l’ère de la transformation numérique, dans un nouvel «IA-monde» et dans la «seconde révolution quantique», la sécurité nationale et internationale doit s’adapter. Elle doit le faire en anticipant ce monde futur, en évitant les surprises et les menaces tant nouvelles qu’anciennes, tout en saisissant les immenses possibilités offertes par ce qui n’est rien moins qu’un changement de paradigme (Pour les labels, … Continue reading Modeler la Sécurité du Cyber Future – Agora 41, Assemblée Stratégique pour l’ANSSI

As we enter the “fourth industrial revolution”, the age of the digital transformation, a new emerging “AI-world”, and the “second quantum revolution”, national and international security must adapt. It must do so by anticipating this future world, avoiding surprises related to new – but also old – threats and dangers, while seizing the immense opportunities offered by what is no less than a change of paradigm (For the labels, respectively, Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum, Helene Lavoix, The Future Artificial Intelligence – Powered World series, The Red (Team) Analysis Society, Jonathan P. Dowling, Gerard J. Milburn, “Quantum Technology: The Second Quantum Revolution”, 13 Jun 2002, arXiv:quant-ph/0206091v1).

Accès à la version française

The strategy related to cyber space and cyber security varies according to countries – and actors. It is handled in various ways by different types of agencies. After having briefly presented the main French, British and American state actors for cyber security, we shall focus on the French outlook and present the ANSSI, its goals and finally new outreach initiative, Agora 41.

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for political and geopolitical risk of interest to private and public actors.

Find out more on horizon scanning, signals, what they are and how to use them:
Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Anticipation: Definition and Practice“.

Read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning. Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 18 October 2018

On 12 October, Chinese Huawei launched its new Quantum Computing Simulation HiQ Cloud Service Platform (Press Release).  On 13 September 2018, the U.S. House of Representatives approved the “H.R. 6227: National Quantum Initiative Act” with $1.275 billion budget from 2019 to 2023 on quantum research. The Chinese government yearly investment in quantum science is estimated to$ 244 million (CRS, … Continue reading The Coming Quantum Computing Disruption, Artificial Intelligence and Geopolitics (1)

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for political and geopolitical risk of interest to private and public actors.

Find out more on horizon scanning, signals, what they are and how to use them:
Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Anticipation: Definition and Practice“.

Welcome to the now obvious 21st century conundrum: The already impacting (we told you so) climate change entails huge costs.Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – An Obvious 21st Century Conundrum – 11 October 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for political and geopolitical risk of interest to private and public actors.

Find out more on horizon scanning, signals, what they are and how to use them:
Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Anticipation: Definition and Practice“.

Read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning. Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – US-China tensions escalate – 4 October 2018