All posts by Jon Mitchell (Ma)

He is an independent researcher and writer pursuing his MA in Public Policy – International Affairs from Liberty University, U.S.. He has contributed to a political-economic analysis report for a non-profit international organization, compiled an unofficial analysis report on Boko Haram for a U.S. Congressional Committee, and writes articles for Foreign Policy Journal. While interning with the Hudson Institute, he researched critical regional security issues and analyzed complex international challenges in their Center for Political-Military Analysis.

Impacts and Consequences

If the planned center truly becomes operational and efficient, which cannot be estimated with confidence currently considering unknowns,

  • Increased likelihood to mitigate spillover from the Libyan conflict

Facts and analysis

Related

Continue reading Signal: Libya and Italy Increase Efforts to Combat Migrant Smuggling

Impact on Issues

/ ➄ Hindrance to effective peace talks / Continued war in Libya

Recent statements by the elders of the Warfalla tribe highlight an underlying challenge to Libyan peace talks—tribalism. Under the umbrellas of the rival Libyan governments lie a host of tribes that are simultaneously competing for influence and power. … Continue reading Signal: Libya’s Largest Tribe Poses Challenge for a Peaceful Solution

Impact on Issues

/ ➄ Stalled peace dialogue / Continued war in Libya

On Monday, the head of the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) High Council of State—Abdulrahman Swehli—reiterated the continued inability of the GNA and the Council of Representatives (COR) to agree on General Haftar’s role in a united government. … Continue reading Signal: Rival Libyan Governments Remain at Odds Over Haftar

Impact on Issues

/ ➄ Failed peace talks / Continued war in Libya

On Monday 16 October 2017 evening, the Council of Representatives (COR) dialogue committee suspended its participation in the Tunisia-hosted peace negotiations with the Government of National Accord (GNA).
For previous and other signals check the
Horizon Scanning Board
According to the official statement and members of the COR’s committee, … Continue reading Signal: Libya’s Council of Representatives Dialogue Committee Abandons Peace Negotiations

Having evaluated the likelihood for each scenario for the future of Libya (see detail here), we shall now present updated likelihoods that account for changes that have taken place since we began the evaluations. Because both intervention and spillover are already undoubtedly occurring in Libya, our scenarios are now considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention and spillover instead of independent scenarios.   … Continue reading Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods

In this article, however unlikely it would appear currently*, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the Salafists — in other words, the ability of Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries,Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Lasting Salafist Victory

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.
Log in if you are a member.

In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory in Libya in the medium term by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the lasting victory of each government, … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Salafist Victory?

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.
Log in if you are a member.

In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR—in other words, the ability of each government to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – Scenarios of Victories (2)

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.
Log in if you are a member.

In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR. By total victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – Scenarios of Victories (1)

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.
Log in if you are a member.

As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring—thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. In this article, we shall discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya – Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.
Log in if you are a member.