COVID-19: Anticipation, Timing and Influence – From Mobility Restriction to Medicine Shortage

Scenarios regarding the future of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in China and globally vary wildly (David Cyranoski, “When will the coronavirus outbreak peak?“, Nature, 18 February 2020). The estimates go from the outbreak peaking at the end of February 2020 to months away with millions infected (Ibid.). The WHO Director-General stressed the necessity to remain […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 13 February 2020

(Credit Image: ESO/P. Horálek)

This is the 13 February 2020 issue of our weekly scan for geopolitical risks (open access). Using horizon scanning, each week, we collect weak – and less weak – signals. These point to new, emerging, escalating or stabilising problems. As a result, they indicate how trends or dynamics evolve.

Editorial: The spread and persistence of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak is increasingly an issue of serious concern. Now, the new way to test the COVID-19 cases would appear to send a wind of panic across the world: it added more than 12000 confirmed cases over night. Meanwhile, tensions between Turkey and Syria rises… read more in the scan

The Coronavirus COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak is Not Only about a New Virus

Last updated on February 14th, 2020 at 12:07 pmThe coronavirus epidemic is “a very grave threat” because “Viruses can have more powerful consequences than any terrorist action”. This is what the WHO Director stressed as an international meeting of 400 scientists and other experts convened in Geneva (Sarah Boseley, “Coronavirus should be seen as ‘public […]

The New Coronavirus COVID-19 (ex 2019-nCoV) Mystery – Fact-Checking

Last updated on February 19th, 2020 at 04:24 pmThe new Coronavirus 2019-nCoV epidemic outbreak is a mystery. Indeed, since it became a concern in China at the end of December 2019 and in the early days of January 2020 (WHO timeline), the various actors and authorities involved have been sending contradictory signals regarding the outbreak. […]

Resources to monitor the new Coronavirus COVID-19 (ex 2019-nCoV) Epidemic Outbreak

Last updated on February 13th, 2020 at 04:21 pmThe new Coronavirus COVID-19 (ex 2019-nCoV) epidemic outbreak unfolds, with still much uncertainty. Thus, we must closely monitor it, using the best possible ressources available. All actors should also develop scenarios to make sure they are ready across all possible futures. Here, you will find a list […]

The Global Wildfire (1)

(Credit Image: Pierre Markuse, CC BY 2.0) The global wildfire is engulfing the world. Throughout 2019, immense swaths of Australia, California, Alaska, Russia, central Africa, and the Amazon basin, were part of this immense bonfire. This conflagration took place after the historic fire seasons of 2018, 2017, 2016… (David Wallace Wells, The Uninhabitable Earth, Life […]

Artificial Intelligence, climate change and the U.S military

AI, AI Everywhere The Artificial Intelligence field (AI) is creating a continuity that encompasses climate change science and the preparedness of the U.S. military to climate risks. This continuity appears through the central role of AI in two apparently disconnected foresight civilian and military uses. AI and climate science Climate Central published in Nature a […]

Are your Strategic Foresight Scenarios Valid? Test and Check List in 6 points

Last updated on January 27th, 2020 at 04:13 pmScenario building, also known as scenario analysis, is a crucial methodology to anticipate and prepare for the future. This is a method used from risk management to strategic foresight through all anticipatory methodology. The higher the uncertainty, the more important it is to be able to mitigate […]

How to Analyse Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios and War

Last updated on January 23rd, 2020 at 11:43 amThis article focuses on scenarios for war. It explains first why scenarios need to be mutually exclusive. Then it provides logical templates for building scenarios dealing with war. Finally it offers an updated bibliography of scenarios for Syria over time. Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyse Future […]

The U.S. Army versus a Warming Planet

The strange case of the disappearing report In August 2019, the Centre for Climate and Security published an article about a recent publication by the U.S Army War College. The document, entitled “Implications of Climate change for the U.S Army”, however, cannot be found anymore on the “publications” page of the U.S Army War College. […]