Geographical Regions

Our Foresights and Insights

This article looks at the way the warming ocean exerts a growing pressure on food security and the economy. It is a follow-up to “The U.S. Navy vs Climate Change Insecurity” (Jean-Michel Valantin, June 15, 2018), where we focused on the current climate and ocean change becoming a major strategic threat, because of the rapid rise of the ocean level.  … Continue reading The Warming Ocean as Planetary Threat

This article focuses on the political and geopolitical consequences of the feedback relationship linking Artificial Intelligence (AI) in its Deep Learning component and computing power – hardware – or rather high performance computing power (HPC). It builds on a first part where we explained and detailed this connection.
There we underlined notably three typical phases where computation is required: creation of the AI program, … Continue reading Artificial Intelligence, Computing Power and Geopolitics (2)

The U.S. Navy is under higher and growing pressure from climate and ocean change. This situation is emphasized in The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Department of Defense Installations on Atolls in the Pacific Ocean (Curt D. Storlazzi, Stephen B. Gingerich et al., February 2018, full pdf report), … Continue reading The U.S. Navy vs Climate and Ocean Change Insecurity (1)

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

➚➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. on the one hand, China and in a lesser way Russia on the other.
➚➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines
➚➚ Rising uncertainty regarding the emerging AI-world
Possible widening of the range of response,

Continue reading Signal: The Pentagon Researches Artificial Intelligence Systems for Nuclear Missile Launch Anticipation

Trump’s decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, better known as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is a highly destabilizing element in an already unstable regional scenario characterized by wars in Syria and Yemen, the never-ending Israeli-Palestinian question, the rift between Qatar and the other Gulf countries (chiefly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates), … Continue reading The Future of Iran’s Regional Role – The Islamic Revolution and Iran’s Political System

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals…

Editorial

The evolution of the geopolitical situation around Iran increasingly  generates a feeling of déjà vu for European companies. Non-European actors, chiefly among them the U.S. take political, strategic and geopolitical  decisions in the name of their national interest (and lobby groups), … Continue reading Iran: Are European Firms Being Sacrificed Again? The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 31 May 2018

The April and May 2018 Chinese successful deep sea explorations in the South China Sea lead to novel future possibilities, including a rising uncertainty in the security and resource sectors for all actors, states and companies alike, involving a complete redrawing of the influence map, of the capabilities needed and relatedly of the strategies and policies to develop and implement.

In this article, we shall focus on the strategic meaning of the rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI) by the Chinese military, at the level of command and management of warfare operations.
In the first article of this series, we saw how the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is working to integrate AI to numerous weapons systems thus developing its “AI (fire) power”. … Continue reading Militarizing Artificial Intelligence – China (2)

Risk level and Uncertainties

Risk level
very high at the national level (WHO assess.)
 high at the regional level (WHO assess.)
➀ weak at the global level (WHO assess.)
➚   Risk for actors without activities within the DRC –

Continue reading Warning – Ebola Outbreak in the DRC Spreading – to Put under Watch

For this strategic foresight and warning series focused on the future of Iran notably as a regional player, within the next three to five years, we shall start analysing Iran’s history and political institutions and then we shall investigate Iran’s relations with leading regional and global powers.