Our Foresights and Insights

The second decade of the 21st century appears to be rough for the U.S.. Could it mean that American power is waning? The question of a putative decline of the U.S. regularly emerges in international relations and in the media since at least the 1970s (Kenneth Waltz; Theory of International Politics, 1979: 177-178). However, each … Continue reading Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council

Executive summary The current and coming impacts of climate change are becoming equivalent to those of a long bombing. This can be seen with the damages wrought in Texas, Louisiana and Florida by hurricanes Harvey and Irma. In a few days, the total costs of these disasters has amounted to at least 290 billion USD, … Continue reading Climate Change: the Long Planetary Bombing

This article focuses on the “rise of populism”, the second explanation given for two of the major recent political and geopolitical surprises – i.e. the Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President, and a major concern for many regarding the future evolution of Europe, the EU, and more largely the liberal paradigm in its … Continue reading Investigating the Rise of Populism (2) – Populism-Labelling and its Dangers

This article and the next focuses on the “rise of populism”, the second explanation given for two of the major recent political and geopolitical surprises – i.e. the Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President. Populism and its rise are potentially at the heart of a possible crisis in Europe, and world-wide, should “populist” … Continue reading Investigating the Rise of Populism – A Perfect Definition?

The world has entered a period where uncertainty rules and where surprises abound. Focusing on 2016, the two major surprises usually singled out are the Brexit or the vote leading to the exit of the U.K. from the European Union, then the election of U.S. President Trump against favourite Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Even though a short-term … Continue reading Beyond the End of Globalisation – From the Brexit to U.S. President Trump

With this article and the next one, we shall use the instability and conflict in Ukraine and the related impacts on businesses to continue enhancing our understanding of the way businesses and the corporate world could usefully anticipate or foresee geopolitical and political risks and uncertainties. Here we shall review two major impacts of the war in Ukraine. First we … Continue reading Impacts of the Conflict in Ukraine – Geopolitics, Uncertainties and Business (3)

The summer of 2016 has been a major pivot in the history of mankind. In effect, on 30 August, the definition of the current geological epoch as the “Anthropocene Era” has been officially validated, during the 35th International Geological Congress, in Cape Town, South Africa (Noel Castree, “An Official Welcome to the Anthropocene Epoch”, RD … Continue reading The Anthropocene Era and Economic (in)Security – (1)

In April 2016, some important oil-producing Middle Eastern countries, as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iran, were present among the representatives of more than 155 countries headed to the U.N. in New York to ratify the international climate accord negotiated during the Paris COP 21 (“UAE vows to make climate deal work”, The National … Continue reading Alberta Mega Wildfire and the United Arab Emirates Security

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Read the 16 April scan →  World – Two major developments should more particularly be underlined this week, the first related to world order and further threat to the U.S. Dollar supremacy and the second to the potential forthcoming anti-Bashar al-Assad Saudi-Turkish attacks in Syria. First, … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 199 – Of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Petrodollars

In his book Climate wars-the fight for survival as the world overheats (2010), author Gwynn Dyer proposes a “chronicle” of the coming decades, through a series of eight geopolitical scenarios going from 2019 to 2055 (“The Year 2045; Russia 2019; United States, 2029; Northern India, 2036; A Happy Tale; US and UK, 2055; China, 2042; … Continue reading Environment, Climate Change, War and State