Americas

Our Foresights and Insights

The U.S. Navy is under higher and growing pressure from climate and ocean change. This situation is emphasized in The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Department of Defense Installations on Atolls in the Pacific Ocean (Curt D. Storlazzi, Stephen B. Gingerich et al., February 2018, full pdf report), … Continue reading The U.S. Navy vs Climate and Ocean Change Insecurity (1)

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

➚➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. on the one hand, China and in a lesser way Russia on the other.
➚➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines
➚➚ Rising uncertainty regarding the emerging AI-world
Possible widening of the range of response,

Continue reading Signal: The Pentagon Researches Artificial Intelligence Systems for Nuclear Missile Launch Anticipation

Trump’s decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, better known as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is a highly destabilizing element in an already unstable regional scenario characterized by wars in Syria and Yemen, the never-ending Israeli-Palestinian question, the rift between Qatar and the other Gulf countries (chiefly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates), … Continue reading The Future of Iran’s Regional Role – The Islamic Revolution and Iran’s Political System

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals…

Editorial

The evolution of the geopolitical situation around Iran increasingly  generates a feeling of déjà vu for European companies. Non-European actors, chiefly among them the U.S. take political, strategic and geopolitical  decisions in the name of their national interest (and lobby groups), … Continue reading Iran: Are European Firms Being Sacrificed Again? The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 31 May 2018

The April and May 2018 Chinese successful deep sea explorations in the South China Sea lead to novel future possibilities, including a rising uncertainty in the security and resource sectors for all actors, states and companies alike, involving a complete redrawing of the influence map, of the capabilities needed and relatedly of the strategies and policies to develop and implement.

2018 could be the year when the U.S. takes back the lead over China with the most powerful supercomputer in the world. It could be the year when the AI-power war over computing power started.
2017 is the year when Artificial Intelligence started creating Artificial Intelligence (AI). It is the year when China overtook the US in the total number of ranked supercomputers and in aggregate computing performance.Continue reading When AI Started Creating AI – Artificial Intelligence and Computing Power

In this article, part of our series on the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we focus our attention on the scenario “The Rise of the Renminbi”, which we deem more interesting in the way it would unfold. In the previous article, we highlighted three different main lead scenarios that could potentially describe the developments that will take place in the future, … Continue reading Scenario The Rise of the Renminbi – Futures of the US Dollar Supremacy

Is space mining the short and long-term future for energy and industry?
Nowadays, this question is rooted in the rapid development of the industrial, financial, technological and legal apparatus around the idea of mining asteroids. For example, on 6 January 2015, the US President, then Barack Obama, signed the US commercial space launch competitiveness act. This act aims at “spurring private aerospace competitiveness and entrepreneurship” (US Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act). … Continue reading Space Mining, Artificial Intelligence and Transition?

With this series, trying to understand the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we have analysed the currency functions (medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account) that make the dollar the necessary currency together with the challenges looming over the petrodollar system, the perspective of the renminbi as a leading international currency and the possible impacts of cryptocurrencies over the international monetary system. … Continue reading Scenarios for the Future of the US Dollar Supremacy

In this article, we shall analyse the drivers behind the rise in cryptocurrencies’ value and market capitalization and start envisioning future evolutions, focusing notably on Bitcoin and blockchain technology. Previously, we explained what is a cryptocurrency and highlighted the possible revolutionary impact of blockchain, the technology underlying the majority of cryptocurrencies. We, meanwhile described the main features of the three most capitalized cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, … Continue reading Blockchain, not Bitcoin, the Next Game-Changer?