Europe

Our Foresights and Insights

In 2015, on the eve of his first state visit to the UK, the Chinese President Xi Jinping praised the “visionary and strategic choice” of the British government and its will to build a “golden era” of Sino-British relationships (“Xi Jinping visit: UK-China ties will be lifted to new height”, BBC News, … Continue reading China and the United Kingdom “Golden Relationship” on the Belt and Road

Massive geopolitical changes are occurring in the Arctic, because of the rapid warming of this region due to climate change. These geopolitical shifts are particularly important in the Russian Arctic Exclusive Economic Zone, which spans from the Bering Strait to Norway, along the Siberian coast. This is where Russia develops the North East passage known as the “Northern Sea Route”. … Continue reading The Russian Arctic, China’s (Digital) Development and Northern Europe

Impacts and Consequences

  • Increased likelihood to see a return to a more influential and independent foreign policy of the European states holders of veto power at UN Security Council (France and UK);
  • Increased likelihood to see a multipolar world settling in, however with also an
  • Increased likelihood to see a global perception of a rising Chinese global influence;

Continue reading Signal: China – France Strengthening Relations

Impacts and Consequences

If the planned center truly becomes operational and efficient, which cannot be estimated with confidence currently considering unknowns,

  • Increased likelihood to mitigate spillover from the Libyan conflict

Facts and analysis

Related

Continue reading Signal: Libya and Italy Increase Efforts to Combat Migrant Smuggling

Nato has released its latest 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report.
According to General Denis Mercier, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) interviewed by Reuters, the report will be used with a SACT “companion report that maps out what NATO should do to respond to these trends in the spring” … “to inform the 2019 NATO political guidance”. … Continue reading Signal: Latest NATO 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

?  Perceptions, reactions and interactions outside Barcelona, notably in independence towns and areas, as well as outside major “central regional” political and civil servant circles (critical uncertainty).
➘➘➘ ➁ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence
➘➘➘ ➁  Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain
➘➙ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU…

Continue reading Signal: Spanish Stabilising Reassertion of Rule over Catalonia

Impact on Issues

? ➂  towards  The way Spain will practically implement the take over of Catalan administrations and institutions is critical (critical uncertainty)
➚➚➚ ➂ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence
➚➚➚ ➂  Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain
 ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU…

Continue reading Signals: Catalonia Prepares for Spain Take Over

Impact on Issues

 Italy, Lombardy and Veneto: towards autonomy?
? The end of an Italian nation?
? The future of the Italian State?
? The Italian South reaction ?

Continue reading Signal: Two Regions in Italy Vote Heavily for Autonomy

Impact on Issues

➚➚ ➂  Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain
 ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally

On 16 October 2017 morning, Carlos Puigdemont answered Madrid’s ultimatum (see previous signal) through a letter (as displayed below). … Continue reading Signals: Catalonia Answers Spain, Spain Jails two Catalan Leaders…

Impact on Issues

➚ Activation of NATO Art. 5 by the U.S. (Still not started, seen as far away, yet issue on the agenda) 
NATO military involvement in North Korea, thus EU and European states’ military entanglement in North Korea
➚  ➁  World War
Independent European Common Foreign and Security Policy –

Continue reading Signal: North Korea Discussed as an Issue among NATO Ambassadors…