Europe

Our Foresights and Insights

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

?  Perceptions, reactions and interactions outside Barcelona, notably in independence towns and areas, as well as outside major “central regional” political and civil servant circles (critical uncertainty).
➘➘➘ ➁ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence
➘➘➘ ➁  Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain
➘➙ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU…

Continue reading Signal: Spanish Stabilising Reassertion of Rule over Catalonia

Impact on Issues

? ➂  towards  The way Spain will practically implement the take over of Catalan administrations and institutions is critical (critical uncertainty)
➚➚➚ ➂ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence
➚➚➚ ➂  Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain
 ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU…

Continue reading Signals: Catalonia Prepares for Spain Take Over

Impact on Issues

 Italy, Lombardy and Veneto: towards autonomy?
? The end of an Italian nation?
? The future of the Italian State?
? The Italian South reaction ?

Continue reading Signal: Two Regions in Italy Vote Heavily for Autonomy

Impact on Issues

➚➚ ➂  Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain
 ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally

On 16 October 2017 morning, Carlos Puigdemont answered Madrid’s ultimatum (see previous signal) through a letter (as displayed below). … Continue reading Signals: Catalonia Answers Spain, Spain Jails two Catalan Leaders…

Impact on Issues

➚ Activation of NATO Art. 5 by the U.S. (Still not started, seen as far away, yet issue on the agenda) 
NATO military involvement in North Korea, thus EU and European states’ military entanglement in North Korea
➚  ➁  World War
Independent European Common Foreign and Security Policy –

Continue reading Signal: North Korea Discussed as an Issue among NATO Ambassadors…

Impact on Issues

➚ ➀ China-U.S. Tension – ➚ Chinese influence (including OBOR/New Silk Road) – U.S. influence – USD supremacy – Uncertainty: American East Asian strategic presence and East Asian stability

China has become the third larger exporter of arms in the world, … Continue reading Signal: A View from China – its Rising Arms Exports

Impact on Issues

 ➂  Catalonia vs Spain
 ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally

Should Madrid be conciliant, the way Catalonia offered to operationalise the independence it declared could be stabilising. … Continue reading Signals: Catalonia Declaration of Independence, Spain Reaction (updated 16:04 CET 11 Oct 2017)

Impact on Issues

+ ➂  Catalonia vs Spain (see further outlined scenarios below) –  ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally
Warning (Opportunity) – Opportunity to plan ahead for the EU and its member states,

Continue reading Signal: Political Dealings and Scenarios in Spain vs Catalonia

Impact on Issues

➚➚ Catalonia vs Spain

The situation continues to escalate in terms of political dynamics between Catalonia and Spain. The signals are so numerous that rather than presenting them one at a time, we shall list them below, and assess them as escalating or stabilising. … Continue reading Signals – Spain and Catalonia: Constitutional Court Order, Media Polarization…

Impact on Issues

U.S. – Iran tensions

The declaration by Defence Secretary Mattis could not only lower the tension between the two countries but also signal further appeasement. However, considering the current complexity of relations and dynamics within the American government and more largely political authorities, … Continue reading Signal: Mattis on Iran nuclear deal