Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals…
The evolution of the geopolitical situation around Iran increasingly generates a feeling of déjà vu for European companies. Non-European actors, chiefly among them the U.S. take political, strategic and geopolitical decisions in the name of their national interest (and lobby groups), … Continue reading Iran: Are European Firms Being Sacrificed Again? The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 31 May 2018
With this series, trying to understand the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we have analysed the currency functions (medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account) that make the dollar the necessary currency together with the challenges looming over the petrodollar system, the perspective of the renminbi as a leading international currency and the possible impacts of cryptocurrencies over the international monetary system. … Continue reading Scenarios for the Future of the US Dollar Supremacy
In 2015, on the eve of his first state visit to the UK, the Chinese President Xi Jinping praised the “visionary and strategic choice” of the British government and its will to build a “golden era” of Sino-British relationships (“Xi Jinping visit: UK-China ties will be lifted to new height”, BBC News, … Continue reading China and the United Kingdom “Golden Relationship” on the Belt and Road
Massive geopolitical changes are occurring in the Arctic, because of the rapid warming of this region due to climate change. These geopolitical shifts are particularly important in the Russian Arctic Exclusive Economic Zone, which spans from the Bering Strait to Norway, along the Siberian coast. This is where Russia develops the North East passage known as the “Northern Sea Route”. … Continue reading The Russian Arctic, China’s (Digital) Development and Northern Europe
Impacts and Consequences
- Increased likelihood to see a return to a more influential and independent foreign policy of the European states holders of veto power at UN Security Council (France and UK);
- Increased likelihood to see a multipolar world settling in, however with also an
- Increased likelihood to see a global perception of a rising Chinese global influence;
… Continue reading Signal: China – France Strengthening Relations
Impacts and Consequences
If the planned center truly becomes operational and efficient, which cannot be estimated with confidence currently considering unknowns,
- Increased likelihood to mitigate spillover from the Libyan conflict
Facts and analysis
… Continue reading Signal: Libya and Italy Increase Efforts to Combat Migrant Smuggling
Nato has released its latest 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report.
According to General Denis Mercier, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) interviewed by Reuters, the report will be used with a SACT “companion report that maps out what NATO should do to respond to these trends in the spring” … “to inform the 2019 NATO political guidance”. … Continue reading Signal: Latest NATO 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties
? ➂ Perceptions, reactions and interactions outside Barcelona, notably in independence towns and areas, as well as outside major “central regional” political and civil servant circles (critical uncertainty).
➘➘➘ ➁ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence
➘➘➘ ➁ Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain
➘➙ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU…
… Continue reading Signal: Spanish Stabilising Reassertion of Rule over Catalonia
Impact on Issues
? ➂ towards ➃ The way Spain will practically implement the take over of Catalan administrations and institutions is critical (critical uncertainty)
➚➚➚ ➂ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence
➚➚➚ ➂ Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain
➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU…
… Continue reading Signals: Catalonia Prepares for Spain Take Over
Impact on Issues
? Italy, Lombardy and Veneto: towards autonomy?
? The end of an Italian nation?
? The future of the Italian State?
? The Italian South reaction ?
… Continue reading Signal: Two Regions in Italy Vote Heavily for Autonomy