Middle-East and North Africa

Our Foresights and Insights

Impact on Issues

/ ➄ Failed peace talks / Continued war in Libya

On Monday 16 October 2017 evening, the Council of Representatives (COR) dialogue committee suspended its participation in the Tunisia-hosted peace negotiations with the Government of National Accord (GNA).
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According to the official statement and members of the COR’s committee, … Continue reading Signal: Libya’s Council of Representatives Dialogue Committee Abandons Peace Negotiations

Impact on Issues

➚➚➚  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➚➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence
Russia, U.S.,

Continue reading Signals: Kurd Military Command on Kirkuk; Iran again…

Having evaluated the likelihood for each scenario for the future of Libya (see detail here), we shall now present updated likelihoods that account for changes that have taken place since we began the evaluations. Because both intervention and spillover are already undoubtedly occurring in Libya, our scenarios are now considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention and spillover instead of independent scenarios.   … Continue reading Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods

Impact on Issues

➚➚  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence
Russia, U.S.,

Continue reading Signals: Towards War In Iraq between Kurds and Iraqis, Iran…

Impact on Issues

➚ ➀ China-U.S. Tension – ➚ Chinese influence (including OBOR/New Silk Road) – U.S. influence – USD supremacy – Uncertainty: American East Asian strategic presence and East Asian stability

China has become the third larger exporter of arms in the world, … Continue reading Signal: A View from China – its Rising Arms Exports

Impact on Issues

➘  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➘ Russia Conundrum
Russia Influence – ➘ Middle East Tension –

Continue reading Signals: Russia Unveils Policy on Iraq Kurds Independence, Iraqis and Kurds discuss…

Impact on Issues

➚ U.S. Decline – ➚ Russian Influence – ➘  Middle East Regional Tension – ➚➚ ➂  Global tension

Among many other impacts, we shall notably stress here that this visit shows the skill of Russian diplomacy and the pertinence of Russian strategy as Russia seems to be highly likely to succeed in  maintaining and developing good relationships with two current ‘competing’ … Continue reading Signal: State visit of Saudi King in Russia

Impact on Issues

➚➚ Syria & Iraq – Gulf Crisis – ➚➚ Russia Conundrum

Turkey President Erdogan declaration would tend to confirm the harsh and unremitting position that Turkey, Iran and Iraq have been taking since the beginning on the issue of Iraqi Kurds independence. … Continue reading Signal: Turkey about to close Iraq border and air space – Iraq Kurds Independence

Impact on Issues

U.S. – Iran tensions

The declaration by Defence Secretary Mattis could not only lower the tension between the two countries but also signal further appeasement. However, considering the current complexity of relations and dynamics within the American government and more largely political authorities, … Continue reading Signal: Mattis on Iran nuclear deal

Impact on Issues

➚➚ Gulf Crisis – Russia Conundrum – ➚➚ Syria & Iraq

The aftermath of the Kurdish referendum in Iraq continues to send shock waves, as the Kurds persist in wanting their independence while Iraq and their neighbours, … Continue reading Signal: Iran Turkey Boost Military Ties – Iraq Kurds Independence