How to Analyse Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios and War

This article focuses on scenarios for war. It explains first why scenarios need to be mutually exclusive. Then it provides logical templates for building scenarios dealing with war. Finally it offers an updated bibliography of scenarios for Syria over time. Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyse Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1) Methodology to […]

Saudi Arabia and the Chinese Belt and Road: the Great Convergence

In February 2019, during the Saudi Arabia-China economic forum, the two countries signed for more than 28 billion dollars deals (“Saudi-Chinese Investment Forum Signs 35 Deals During Crown Prince’s Beijing Visit”, Ashark Al Awsat, 22 February, 2019). These gigantic deals are part of the growing Saudi-China relationship. They are the economic and political continuation of […]

The Warming Ocean as Planetary Threat

This article looks at the way the warming ocean exerts a growing pressure on food security and the economy. It is a follow-up to “The U.S. Navy vs Climate Change Insecurity” (Jean-Michel Valantin, June 15, 2018), where we focused on the current climate and ocean change becoming a major strategic threat, because of the rapid […]

Artificial Intelligence, Computing Power and Geopolitics (2)

This article focuses on the political and geopolitical consequences of the feedback relationship linking Artificial Intelligence (AI) in its Deep Learning component and computing power – hardware – or rather high performance computing power (HPC). It builds on a first part where we explained and detailed this connection. Related Artificial Intelligence, Computing Power and Geopolitics […]

The Future of Iran’s Regional Role – The Islamic Revolution and Iran’s Political System

Trump’s decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, better known as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is a highly destabilizing element in an already unstable regional scenario characterized by wars in Syria and Yemen, the never-ending Israeli-Palestinian question, the rift between Qatar and the other Gulf countries (chiefly Saudi Arabia and […]

Iran: Are European Firms Being Sacrificed Again? The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 31 May 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Editorial The evolution of the geopolitical situation around Iran increasingly  generates a feeling of déjà vu for European companies. Non-European actors, chiefly among them the U.S. take political, strategic and geopolitical  decisions in the name of their national interest (and lobby groups), including the interest […]

The Future of Iran’s Regional Role – A Historical Backgrounder

For this strategic foresight and warning series focused on the future of Iran notably as a regional player, within the next three to five years, we shall start analysing Iran’s history and political institutions and then we shall investigate Iran’s relations with leading regional and global powers.

The U.A.E. and the Artificial Intelligence and Sustainability Revolution

The United Arab Emirates is shifting rapidly towards the artificial intelligence revolution. This shift is expressed by numerous decisions taken by the highest U.A.E. political authorities. For example, on 16 October 2017, the Sheikh Mohamed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, vice-president of the U.A.E. and ruler of Dubai, appointed Omar Bin Sultan al Olama as minister […]

Signals: Jerusalem – The U.S. Defeated at the U.N., China Seeks Advantage?

Impacts and Consequences Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the global U.S. influence and power lowered; Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the regional (Middle East) U.S. influence and power lowered. Should China step in successfully as peace broker between Israelis and Palestinians Increased likelihood to see global perception of a […]

Signal: Libya and Italy Increase Efforts to Combat Migrant Smuggling

Impacts and Consequences If the planned center truly becomes operational and efficient, which cannot be estimated with confidence currently considering unknowns, Increased likelihood to mitigate spillover from the Libyan conflict Facts and analysis Related Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods; Estimating Likelihoods (detailed): Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition; Narratives Sc 2.2 (2), […]

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