No return to the past with the COVID-19

On 11 March, the WHO characterised the COVID-19 as a pandemic. The probability to see the WHO, finally, accepting the label had been rising everyday. Indeed, we have witnessed the proliferation of clusters and outbreaks globally, that led to the emergence of multiple epidemic centres. Since we first published this article, the pandemic intensified. On …

COVID-19: Anticipation, Timing and Influence – From Mobility Restriction to Medicine Shortage

Scenarios regarding the future of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in China and globally vary wildly (David Cyranoski, “When will the coronavirus outbreak peak?“, Nature, 18 February 2020). The estimates go from the outbreak peaking at the end of February 2020 to months away with millions infected (Ibid.). The WHO Director-General stressed the necessity to remain …

The Coronavirus COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak is Not Only about a New Virus

The coronavirus epidemic is “a very grave threat” because “Viruses can have more powerful consequences than any terrorist action”. This is what the WHO Director stressed as an international meeting of 400 scientists and other experts convened in Geneva (Sarah Boseley, “Coronavirus should be seen as ‘public enemy number one’, says WHO“, The Guardian, 11 …

The New Coronavirus COVID-19 Mystery – Fact-Checking

The new Coronavirus 2019-nCoV epidemic outbreak is a mystery. Indeed, since it became a concern in China at the end of December 2019 and in the early days of January 2020 (WHO timeline), the various actors and authorities involved have been sending contradictory signals regarding the outbreak. This is perplexing, and all the more so …

Resources to monitor the COVID-19 Pandemic

The “new Coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic outbreak” became the COVID-19 pandemic. With time we learn more about the SARS-CoV-2 (the virus), the COVID-19 (the disease) and its multiple components and impacts. As a result, we must continue to closely monitor it, using the best possible ressources available. All actors should also develop scenarios to make sure …

Artificial Intelligence, climate change and the U.S military

AI, AI Everywhere The Artificial Intelligence field (AI) is creating a continuity that encompasses climate change science and the preparedness of the U.S. military to climate risks. This continuity appears through the central role of AI in two apparently disconnected foresight civilian and military uses. AI and climate science Climate Central published in Nature a …

How to Analyse Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios and War

This article focuses on scenarios for war. It explains first why scenarios need to be mutually exclusive. Then it provides logical templates for building scenarios dealing with war. Finally it offers an updated bibliography of scenarios for Syria over time. Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyse Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1) Methodology to …

The U.S. Army versus a Warming Planet

The strange case of the disappearing report In August 2019, the Centre for Climate and Security published an article about a recent publication by the U.S Army War College. The document, entitled “Implications of Climate change for the U.S Army”, however, cannot be found anymore on the “publications” page of the U.S Army War College. …

U.S. National Security Commission for Artificial Intelligence Interim report – Signal

Credit Image: Henri Kissinger, 5 Nov 19 NSCAI Conference, @MignonClyburn

The National Security Commission for Artificial Intelligence Interim report, published on 4 November 2019, is a must read for anyone interested in international relations, geopolitics, national and international security. All those concerned must consider the U.S. position, strategic foresight, and now AI as an element of power. Read more…

China, the African Swine Fever Pandemics and Geopolitics

A pandemic of African swine fever is devastating the pig stocks of China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Northern Korea, South Korea, Laos, the Philippines, and Timor Leste. Furthermore, some wild boars carrying the disease have just been detected at the frontier between Mongolia and Russia (African Swine fever update, Food and Agriculture Organization, 03 October 2019). From …

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