Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Political & Geopolitical Risk · Scenarios
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Editor’s note — June 2026: This analysis was originally published in January 2024. Since then, the US attacked Iran twice. First, during the twelve-days war, it succoured its ally Israel, which had launched the war against Iran on 13 June.1Kevin Huggard and Mallika Yadwad, “The road to the Israel-Iran war – …
Continue reading “Which Country has the most Influence in the World?”
Starting in mid-September 2022, the Western media and political world has been abuzz with a Russian threat of nuclear Armageddon. Against such evil, the West, supporting Ukraine, may only show outrage, unveil the real malevolent nature of Russia and increase pressure to try to deter Russia, so runs the narrative. On 27 October 2022, reputable …
Continue reading “Can You Unbias Analysis? The Russian Nuclear Threat”
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) From 1 September to 16 September 22, Vladimir Putin, President of the Federation of Russia, presided the Russian military exercises Vostok 2022. Besides the Russian military, the exercise gathered troops from 14 countries, including India and China (Arang Shidore, “Vostok military exercises indicate that Russia is far from isolated”, Responsible Statecraft, …
Continue reading “An Excluded Russia? Not for Asia – Anthropocene Wars (6)”
A nuclear theatre of operations (Art Direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Image: Recognize Productions via Pexels). On 24 February 2022, at the very start of Russian offensive against Ukraine, after a two days battle, the Russian forces took over the Chernobyl power plant, where the historic nuclear accident occurred in 1986 (Mary Kekatos, “Seizure of Chernobyl plant …
Continue reading “Nuclear Battlefields in Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (2)”
The aim of the East Seas Security Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on security in the East Seas, as explained below. We are currently investigating new AI ways to deliver an even better East Seas Security Sigils. The original complimentary version ran from May 2012 to April 2023. A brief presentation The East …
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Russia’s attack on Ukraine on 24 February 2022 is profoundly changing the international order. The shock is notably hard for countries such as the members of the European Union, who thought they would be at peace for ever. Suddenly, these countries, their economic actors and their citizens rediscover war and the …
The impacts of climate change are intensifying. Some of these are the multiplying extreme weather events, such as mega wildfires and giant floods. The intensity and the scale of these events are now so important threatening for infrastructures, ecosystems and human life, that they entail a growing mobilisation of military forces. Thus, we need to …
Continue reading “The Military and the “Climate Blowback” – Summer 2021 (1)”
Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli The militarization of the Arctic – So what? Over the last few years, NATO, the U.S. and Scandinavian militaries have been multiplying national and regional manoeuvres in the Arctic. This is especially true in Norway and the Barents Sea, very close to the Norwegian and Russian land, air and sea frontiers. …
From 1 to 28 September 2019, 3000 men and women of the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Marine Corps are participating in the “Arctic Expeditionary Capabilities Exercise”. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command leads this exercise. The exercise takes place in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska and Southern California (“Navy, Marine Corps conduct Arctic expeditionary capabilities exercise in Alaska”, …
Continue reading “Towards a U.S.-China War?(2): Military Tensions in the Warming Arctic”
A race has started for quantum technologies or quantum information systems (QIS). Indeed, considering initially and notably the consequences in terms of cryptology – dubbed a “crypto-apocalypse” – no country may allow another state or a foreign company to be the first to develop quantum computing.
However, since the initial worry about cryptology somehow triggered the current quantum revolution, the situation has changed, discoveries have taken place… read more
