Temporal Observatory – Iran & Saudi Arabia

Our Foresights and Insights

Iran and Saudi Arabia

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Through a strategic foresight and warning analysis of the relationships between Iran and Saudi Arabia we aim at improving how to handle time (anticipation of onset of events and their duration) in SF&W and risk management.

Our focus question is: “Within which timeframe could we see full cooperation or, on the contrary, war occur between Saudi Arabia and Iran?”

At the latest 2 June 2016 OPEC summit, Saudi Arabia and Iran failed to reach an agreement on oil production level (e.g. Terry Macalister, The Guardian, 2 June 2016). Different needs as well as tensions between the two countries are at stake. Yet, a few analysts have also underscored a slight improvement in the relations between Saudi Arabia … Continue reading Tempobs – Balance of Power Formation for Iran and Saudi Arabia

Early 2016 has witnessed a succession of dramatic developments that have inflamed the already contentious Iran-Saudi relationship, bringing it to the forefront of global governmental and media attention. These have included: Riyadh’s decision to break diplomatic relations with Tehran at the beginning of the year, the accelerated decline of the price of oil deeply affecting … Continue reading Tempobs – Things Come Together: Saudi Arabia and Iran

As the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia has recently risen to new heights (e.g. Paul Iddon, “Was Saudi Arabia’s execution of Sheikh Nimr calculated or reckless?“, Rudaw, 8 Jan 2016; Jon Schwarz, “One Map That Explains the Dangerous Saudi-Iranian Conflict“, The Intercept, 6 Jan 2016), and has regional if not global repercussions, the focus question … Continue reading Tempobs – Iran, Saudi Arabia and the “Shadow of the Future”

Let’s get started on mapping the Iran-Saudi relationship. To recapitulate our method, we shall build upon the intuitive model introduced in the previous two posts (“Mindfully Mapping a Middle Eastern Morass – Saudi Arabia and Iran” & “Mapping an Interactive Network for Iran and Saudi Arabia Relations“) that conceptualizes the two countries’ behaviors as outcomes … Continue reading Tempobs – State(s) of Mutual Hostility: Saudi Arabia and Iran

This post is the fourth of our temporal observatory project (Tempobs) and related series focused on the future of the relationships between Saudi Arabia and Iran and aiming at improving the handling of time-related issues in strategic foresight and warning, risk, or more broadly anticipatory analysis. It answers and builds upon Dr Warren Fishbein’s (hereinafter Warren) previous article (Mindfully … Continue reading Tempobs – Mapping an Interactive Network for Iran and Saudi Arabia Relations

To summarize Helene’s introductory post, this project aims to develop a time-sensitive approach to strategic anticipation and warning, using the evolving relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia as its substantive framework. But how does one undertake strategic anticipation within the context of the complex, chaotic, fast changing politics of the contemporary Middle East? Just over … Continue reading Tempobs – Mindfully Mapping a Middle Eastern Morass – Saudi Arabia and Iran

Considering the beginning of Russian airstrikes in Syria, and, notably, the increased risk to see it perceived as fanning an already difficult situation in terms of sectarian, Shi’a versus Sunni, tension (Helene Lavoix, “Russia at War with the Islamic State in Syria – Perceptions of Strikes“, RTAS,  12 Oct 2015), understanding and foreseeing the relations between Iran and Saudi … Continue reading Tempobs – Saudi Arabia and Iran, towards War or Cooperation?

Find out the latest articles of the ongoing series here. Below is a general explanation of the project itself. How can we protect ourselves from risks is one of the key questions that so many actors, from citizens and the corporate world to governments are asking themselves and trying to answer. It is the main question … Continue reading Enhancing Foresight with the Temporal Dimension