Basics

Our Foresights and Insights

Risk management, codified by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), allows since 2009 for an almost perfect correspondence with the ideal-type process of strategic foresight and warning (SF&W), as we use here, even though SF&W was developed mainly out of public service – notably intelligence and defense – practice and experience, … Continue reading When Risk Management Meets Strategic Foresight and Warning

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Strategic Foresight and Warning is part of the field of anticipation, which includes many perspectives and practices centered on different themes. Meanwhile, various actors use different names for SF&W, or very similar approaches. It is thus important to clarify what various labels and names mean, even if borders between categories are often fuzzy.

As the label “black swans” is increasingly used but with different interpretations, this post reviews Taleb’s bestseller, the meaning of black swans events and evaluates if the author truly points to the absurdity of foresight.

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Strategic foresight and warning or more broadly anticipation is a step by step process to anticipate the future in an actionable way.
The graphic ideal type process displayed below is the result of more than a decade of work with and about systems of anticipation, from early warning systems to prevent conflicts for aid agencies to strategic warning and strategic foresight with security and intelligence agencies and practitioners. … Continue reading Visualising the Steps to Foresee the Future and Get Ready for It

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An issue, in terms of warning and by extension SF&W, is “a situation, an objective, an opportunity, a danger, a threat or a risk, which is specific and defined.” (Grabo, 2004)
For example, SF&W issues can be interstate and civil wars, fragile states, instability, energy security,Continue reading What is an Issue in terms of Strategic Foresight & Warning or Horizon Scanning?

Strategic Foresight and Warning (SF&W) is at once process and analysis.
By SF&W analysis we mean all methodologies and related issues allowing for the development of an understanding grounded in reality that will generate best anticipatory products, useful to decision-makers and policy-makers for carrying out their mission (to find your way within the myriad of labels given to anticipatory activities, … Continue reading Strategic Foresight & Warning Analysis

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