Basics

Our Foresights and Insights

Risk management, codified by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), allows since 2009 for an almost perfect correspondence with the ideal-type process of strategic foresight and warning (SF&W), as we use here, even though SF&W was developed mainly out of public service – notably intelligence and defense – practice and experience, and with international and national security issues in mind. The new risk … Continue reading When Risk Management Meets Strategic Foresight and Warning

Strategic Foresight and Warning is part of the field of anticipation, which includes many perspectives and practices centered on different themes. Meanwhile, various actors use different names for SF&W, or very similar approaches. It is thus important to clarify what various labels and names mean, even if borders between categories are often fuzzy.

As the label “black swans” is increasingly used but with different interpretations, this post reviews Taleb’s bestseller, the meaning of black swans events and evaluates if the author truly points to the absurdity of foresight.

The architecture of the Red (Team) Analysis Society website is built following this process. Each section strives progressively to address the various challenges that are met at each step, to explain and apply various possible methodologies and tools, and finally to deliver real-life strategic foresight and warning products. This graphic description of a step by … Continue reading Visualising the Steps to Foresee the Future and Get Ready for It

An issue, in terms of warning and by extension SF&W, is “a situation, an objective, an opportunity, a danger, a threat or a risk, which is specific and defined.” (Grabo, 2004) For example, SF&W issues can be interstate and civil wars, fragile states, instability, energy security, oil, economic crisis, new opposition nexus, global water security, epidemics, … Continue reading What is an Issue in terms of Strategic Foresight & Warning or Horizon Scanning?

Strategic Foresight & Warning Analysis

Methodology, tools for and discussion on strategic foresight and warning analysis, including how to create scenarios and write scenarios’ narratives.