Category: 2- The Basics of SF&W Analysis

When Risk Management Meets Strategic Foresight and Warning

Risk management, codified by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), allows since 2009 for an almost perfect correspondence with the ideal-type process of strategic foresight and warning (SF&W), as we use here, even though SF&W was developed mainly out of public service – notably intelligence and defense – practice and experience, and with international and national security issues in mind.

CIA NYSE scThe new risk management process thus lays the foundation for easily incorporating geopolitical and other national and international security issues within risks usually managed by businesses, and should facilitate discussions and exchanges between the corporate world and the public sector, including in terms of data, information, and analysis, according to the specificities and strength of each.

We shall here detail the risk management process, Continue reading When Risk Management Meets Strategic Foresight and Warning

Strategic Foresight & Warning Analysis

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Strategic Foresight and Warning (SF&W) is at once process and analysis.

By SF&W analysis we mean all methodologies and related issues allowing for the development of an understanding grounded in reality that will generate best anticipatory products, useful to decision-makers and policy-makers for carrying out their mission.

The larger SF&W analytical method can be seen as following the following steps, with use of various methodologies and related challenges for each step:

Strategic Foresight and Warning analytical methodology, foresight analysis, scenariosAn example of what is involved in step 1 is given here with the bibliography and links on the one hand, with the Red (Team) Analysis Weekly on the other. A more detailed discussion of step 1 and 6 can be found in the section scan & monitor.

The second (Creating the model I & II) and third steps (Determining criteriaVariables, values and consistency in dynamic networks and finally Using ego networks in foresight analysis) of the foresight part of the method are developed with the use of The Chronicles of Everstate as example. Those steps are also addressed in the series “Assessing future security threats“.

Part of the content of steps 2 and 3 may move from one to the other step. If fully dynamic networks with precise timeline and Bayesian networks were constructed, then the first part of step 3 (identify values, timeline and probabilities) would be included in step 2. Here it is part of step 3.

The monitoring part of step 6 is done for various issues through The Sigils, as well as through The Weekly. These real life indications allow checking the validity of the scenario, and updating the model used for each issue, as done, for example, in the section on end of year predictions. They also allow identifying new emerging issues ( the feedback on step 1).

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