Evaluation

Our Foresights and Insights

Every year, The Economist, in its “The World in…” series, assesses it successes and failures regarding its past yearly forecasts (e.g. for 2012). This is an exemplary behaviour that should be adopted by all practitioners: if we are to deliver good and actionable strategic foresight and warning, and to improve our process, methodology and thus our … Continue reading Evaluating Scenarios and Indicators for the Syrian War

The evaluation of our 2012 predictions’ sample underlines notably a widespread conventional view of national security, novel issues being ignored; a relative inability to assess timing whilst our understanding of issues fares relatively well; the existence of major biases, notably regarding China, Russia, and the U.S; the difficulty of prediction for novel issues and old issues in new context.

This post will present the experiment – assessing a sample of open source predictions for the year 2012 – address the methodological problems encountered while creating the evaluation itself, and underline the lessons learned. The second part (forthcoming) will discuss results.

Open sources predictions for 2013 published on the web related to conventional and unconventional national security and as foreword a few methodological posts on predictions and forecasts.

The Economist shows the lead in a courageous yet hardly ever done exercise: going back to our own foresight and assess, in the light of the present, what was right and what was wrong. It provides us with an example of how such lessons learned could be endeavoured, underlines questions that should be asked and key challenges for anticipation, and exemplifies how biases can derail foresight.

2012 predictions (4)

Jennifer Mc Lean, What Will Happen In 2012? (video)

Various authors for beyondbrics: a series – 12 for 2012 – that beyondbrics is running on key emerging markets topics for the coming year, The Financial Times, starting Dec 27, 2011:

Louise Arbour, Next Year’s Wars: Ten conflicts to watch in 2012, Foreign Policy, Dec 27, 2011

Ross Dawson, Twelve tech trends to shape our future, Technology Spectator, 21 Dec 2011

Roert Reich, My Political Prediction for 2012: It’s Obama-Clinton, The Huffington Post, 12/28/11.

Things That Make You Go Hmmm – 28th December.

Gordon G. Chang, The Coming Collapse of China: 2012 Edition, Foreign Policy, Dec 29, 2011.

IFTF, A Multiverse of Exploration: The Future of Science 2021, Dec 5, 2011.

Bryan Lufkin, InnovationNewsDaily Contributor, Institute for the Future Unveils Its Future Predictions, IFTF, 29 December 2011.

Yadullah Hussain, Too many wild cards cloud 2012 oil price outlook, Financial Post, Dec 30, 2011.

2012 predictions (3)

2012 predictions (3)

Morgan Stanley, Global 2012 Outlook, Global economic Forum, December 15, 2011.

EconMatters, Debt Crisis 2012: Forget Europe, Check Out Japan, Zerohedge, 12/27/2011.

Council on Foreign Relations, The World Next Year: 2012 – A preview of world events in the coming year, (podcast), CFR multimedia, December 22, 2011.

Council on Foreign Relations, Preventive Priorities Survey: 2012, CFR.com, December 8, 2011.

Council on Foreign Relations, Five Economic Trends to Watch in 2012, CFR.com, December 28, 2011.

Sundeep Waslekar (), 12 Trends To Watch For 2012 – OpEd, Eurasia Review, December 27, 2011.

Lance Ulanoff, 5 Tech Trends to Watch in 2012, Mashable Social Media, December 28, 2011.

Zachary Karabell, 2012 Economic Outlook: Why Things Are Better Than We Think, the Daily Beast, Dec 27, 2011.

James Petras, A Doomsday View of 2012, The James Petras website, December 24,  2011.

 

2012 predictions (2)

2012 predictions (2)

ZeroHedge, Globalization, The Decade Ahead, And Asymmetric Returns, 12/26/2011

ZeroHedge, Jim Rogers 2012 Outlook: Pessimism With Scattered Crises, 12/26/2011

Derek Abma on 2012 predictions by Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, “Canada to avoid recession next year despite Europe,” The Vancouver Sun, Financial Post, December 26, 2011

Ryan Mauro, Top 12 Threats to Watch in 2012, Family Security Matters, December 27, 2011

Tony Karon, “If 2011 Was a Turbulent Year for Obama’s Foreign Policy, 2012 Looks Set to Be Worse,” (Survey of the top ten global crisis issues facing the U.S. in the new year), Time.com Global Spin, December 27, 2011.

Moneycontrol bureau, “Keep your coats on! It’s going to be a stormy 2012,” (summary of financial and eco predictions by various financial firms/sources),  Moneycontrol.com, Dec 27, 2011.

Kurzweil AI, News, Cyber threats 2012: search poisoning, mobile Web attacks, selling social-media data, (through Futurist Foresight), October 12, 2011.

NASA, 2012: Beginning of the End or Why the World Won’t End?, 22 December, 2011.

Fiona Graham, Fantastic futures? Technology and business in 2012, BBC News Business, 27 December 2011.