End of year predictions

Our Foresights and Insights

Customary New year’s prediction: hyperlinks, list and analysis

Here are the results of our experiment on the evaluation of a sample of 2012 end of year predictions, following up on the post explaining the methodology used (spreadsheet and an interactive version of the charts can be found here). Let us start with the bad news. As a whole, the percentage of success is relatively low, … Continue reading Assessing End of Year Predictions: How Did they Fare? (2)

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Evaluating predictions, or more broadly the end-products resulting from methodologies used to anticipate possible futures, should become the norm rather than the exception, as explained in a previous post. Such exercise should improve methods and processes and direct our efforts towards further research. We shall here make the experiment to assess a sample of open source predictions for the … Continue reading An Experiment in Assessing End of Year Predictions (1)

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To follow up on last week’s list of 2013 predictions, here is the yield for the first week of 2013, which should end the series for this year. Nations prepare for cyber war, David Goldman @CNNMoneyTech, January 7, 2013. 2013: Lucky or unlucky for the world economy? Anastasiya Kostomarova, Business RT, 4 Jan 2013. Analysis – Doom scenario … Continue reading 2013 Predictions’ Yield (2)

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As last year, in this section, we shall gather open sources predictions for the New Year, published on the web and interesting for conventional and unconventional national security. As a foreword, we shall start with a few methodological posts, which have been recently published on predictions and forecasts, and that are worth reading. We shall then move to links … Continue reading End of Year Predictions: the 2013 Yield

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Last year we gathered as many open source, web-based predictions we could find, for further analysis. As 2012 ends, it is time to go back to them and see what we can learn from them. This post is a first step as it presents the material gathered as a public usable database, that can be accessed … Continue reading 2012 Predictions Database

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The Economist, with “The prediction games: Our winners and losers from last year’s edition,” shows the lead in a courageous, crucial and yet hardly ever done exercise: going back to our own foresight and assessing, in the light of the present, what was right and what was wrong. This exercise is not about getting awards or … Continue reading Trial by Fire for Foresight: The 2012 Predictions of The Economist

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2012 predictions (4)

Jennifer Mc Lean, What Will Happen In 2012? (video) Various authors for beyondbrics: a series – 12 for 2012 – that beyondbrics is running on key emerging markets topics for the coming year, The Financial Times, starting Dec 27, 2011: Ivan Tchakarov of Renaissance Capital, 12 for 2012: Will Putin 2.0 be any different? Dec 27, … Continue reading 2012 predictions (4)

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2012 predictions (3)

2012 predictions (3) Morgan Stanley, Global 2012 Outlook, Global economic Forum, December 15, 2011. EconMatters, Debt Crisis 2012: Forget Europe, Check Out Japan, Zerohedge, 12/27/2011. Council on Foreign Relations, The World Next Year: 2012 – A preview of world events in the coming year, (podcast), CFR multimedia, December 22, 2011. Council on Foreign Relations, Preventive Priorities Survey: … Continue reading 2012 predictions (3)

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2012 predictions (2)

2012 predictions (2) ZeroHedge, Globalization, The Decade Ahead, And Asymmetric Returns, 12/26/2011 ZeroHedge, Jim Rogers 2012 Outlook: Pessimism With Scattered Crises, 12/26/2011 Derek Abma on 2012 predictions by Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, “Canada to avoid recession next year despite Europe,” The Vancouver Sun, Financial Post, December 26, 2011 Ryan Mauro, Top 12 Threats to Watch … Continue reading 2012 predictions (2)

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2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security

2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security Every year, a host of actors, from newspapers to magazines, from think tanks to futurists and other experts, publish predictions at the dawn of every New Year. The aim here is to create a repository of all the predictions done for 2012 that are directly or indirectly related to … Continue reading 2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security

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