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The Sigils

The Sigils (see list below) are a series of daily papers that scan the horizon for weak (and less weak) signals related to various issues relevant to geopolitical risks and uncertainties, and of interest to citizens, the corporate sector, NGOs and domestic and international political authorities. They are provided to you complimentarily by the Red (Team) […]

Pearltrees: a multifunction visual bibliographic tool

While preparing the bibliography on energy security foresight, I was wondering if it would be useful to also apply a visually appealing approach to bibliographies, which would then be conceptualized as a product. As usual, there is no simple answer to this question, and if the classical bibliography will most probably have to be kept for a while, Pearltrees also appears as a perfect bibliographic tool. Inevitable classical bibliography Because delivery of product must consider both the product’s material support and the recipient or customer, then the traditional way to write a bibliography will probably have to be kept for some time. Indeed, for anything that uses paper and print as support, the usual, alphabetical bibliography is best. It is […]

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2013 – 2018 EVT – Tragic events

Tragic events strike Everstate. We witness tornadoes and drought, war in the Middle East and even a major industrial accident, while a new episode of financial crisis starts. These are instances of the various conditions presiding to Everstate’s destiny, considering what has been done, or not, globally, regionally and within Everstate.

The same set of events should be used to stress test each scenario. The logic of the scenario will however comes first, assuming it impacts the plausibility of the event. In that case, ….

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Images to illustrate Complexity Science & Strategic Foresight and Warning

Images related to complexity science I found useful in putting together a presentation dealing with Strategic Foresight and Warning and Complexity

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Featured Images, Symbols & Foresight Product: the Example of The Chronicles of Everstate

(updated 17 April 2012) When an image is featured and is meant to represent the totality of a foresight or anticipatory product, or a large section of it, it must capture the gist of the product. Symbols and symbolism are then crucial to transmit messages. This importance of symbols should anyway be considered for any use of image (as well as when developing a scenario narrative, for example when choosing names). This will be exemplified here with the Chronicles of Everstate. The image aims at capturing symbolically the features of the contemporary (early 21st century) modern nation-state: It, of course, is an heir to Hobbes Leviathan. However, compared with the original image, the head of the sovereign is not displayed […]

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Visual Tools and Design for Foresight Products

Delivery to clients of strategic foresight and warning (SF&W) or futures related products is, as we saw, a crucial part of the overall SF&W process. Without delivery, there is neither warning nor foresight, however accurate and brilliant the underlying analyses. As crucial, although very difficult to achieve, is the fact that clients or customers must pay heed to the foresight product or to the warning. Initially, according to the intelligence literature, notably on surprise, or to exchanges with practitioners, this part of the process is seen as so difficult indeed that it is not considered as being the responsibility of the foresight and warning – or risk – analyst, officer or of the scientist if we include science in SF&W, given the predictive […]

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An Experiment with Infomous Clouds

An Experiment with Infomous Clouds In the framework of our experiments with new tools for both horizon scanning and delivery to clients, started with Paper.li that led to the creation of the Weekly, here is a cool way to use clouds with Infomous (used, for example, by The Economist). The Red (team) Analysis cloud:   Twitter (@HLavoix) cloud:

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Constructing a Foresight Scenario’s Narrative with Ego Networks

In many foresight methods, once you have identified the main factors or variables and reach the moment to develop the narrative for the scenarios, you are left with no guidance regarding the way to accomplish this step, beyond something along the line of “flesh out the scenario and develop the story.”*

Here, we shall do otherwise and provide a straightforward and easy method to write the scenario. We shall use the dynamic network we constructed for Everstate – or for another issue – and the feature called “Ego Network” that is available in social network analysis and visualisation software to guide the development and writing of the narrative.

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2012 predictions (4)

Jennifer Mc Lean, What Will Happen In 2012? (video) Various authors for beyondbrics: a series – 12 for 2012 – that beyondbrics is running on key emerging markets topics for the coming year, The Financial Times, starting Dec 27, 2011: Ivan Tchakarov of Renaissance Capital, 12 for 2012: Will Putin 2.0 be any different? Dec 27, 2011 Murat Üçer, 12 for 2012: Turkey’s tightrope, Dec 28, 2011 Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley, 12 for 2012: expect an EM equities rally, Dec 29, 2011 Dong Tao of Credit Suisse, 12 for 2012: China will go slow for longer, but a hard landing is unlikely, Dec 30, 2011. Louise Arbour, Next Year’s Wars: Ten conflicts to watch in 2012, Foreign Policy, Dec 27, 2011 […]

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2012 predictions (3)

2012 predictions (3) Morgan Stanley, Global 2012 Outlook, Global economic Forum, December 15, 2011. EconMatters, Debt Crisis 2012: Forget Europe, Check Out Japan, Zerohedge, 12/27/2011. Council on Foreign Relations, The World Next Year: 2012 – A preview of world events in the coming year, (podcast), CFR multimedia, December 22, 2011. Council on Foreign Relations, Preventive Priorities Survey: 2012, CFR.com, December 8, 2011. Council on Foreign Relations, Five Economic Trends to Watch in 2012, CFR.com, December 28, 2011. Sundeep Waslekar (Strategic Foresight Group), 12 Trends To Watch For 2012 – OpEd, Eurasia Review, December 27, 2011. Lance Ulanoff, 5 Tech Trends to Watch in 2012, Mashable Social Media, December 28, 2011. Zachary Karabell, 2012 Economic Outlook: Why Things Are Better Than We Think, the […]

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